User blog comment:Pacificus Viridis/Gaul Rising/@comment-32656-20120330073102/@comment-4940710-20120407030833

Well Lordganon, I do kind of agree with what you're saying, but I'm still not totally convinced that that would absolutely rule out the Gallo-Germanic alliance. If it seems like a good idea in the short run, both sides could potentially fall for it. The reason it might appeal to the Gauls is that it would theoretically appease the Alammani (assuming, obviously, everything were to work out), and it would strain the Roman forces. The reason it could appeal to the Germanic tribes is that they would get to conquer Roman territory with the blessing of a power that's on par with Rome. Also, keep in mind that the tribes that accepted Postumus' offer did so only on the condition that he launch a successful invasion of Roman territory: they only began their invasion after the invasion of Italy and the sack of Rome.

I have taken to heart that an alliance like this can prove to be a big mistake in the long run. I mentioned in one of my more recent additions that Postumus underestimated the strength of Rome's eastern armies and wrongly assumed that Aurelian's invasion would last longer. Postumus did not expect that he would have to bail his Germanic allies out. He now has to choose between doing that and having the tribes turn on him. I can think of additional consequences. For example, even if the tribes do manage to attain control of what they were promised, that could only end up only whetting their appetites, and they might eventually turn on the Gallic Empire. Another possibility is that a future Roman Emperor could offer to leave the Gallic Empire alone, but only if the current Gallic Emperor is willing to renounce the alliance with the Germanic tribes. A third is that the tribes could get what they were promised; but then later on, the Romans could retake Pannonia and Noricum too quickly for the Gauls to do anything about it; and the tribes could unfairly blame the Gallic Empire. There are probably more ways the alliance could degenerate.

Consider the real world, Lordganon. Leaders often make decisions that seem good in the short run, but end up having disastrous consequences.

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On another note, I plan on taking a break from the Alternate History Wiki for a few weeks. I have final exams coming up at school and a wave of exams before that. Plus, I want to take some time to figure out what happens after the war ends, because I currently have only vague ideas. I plan on coming back during the latter half of next month. I'm going to write a new blog post announcing my break, edit the note on the main page of the timeline, and then I'm disappearing for a little while. I appreciate your input.