User blog comment:Local Mafia Boss/Crimea Crisis/@comment-4612798-20140302003907

Russia will 'invade' Crimea - it basically already has today. The planned referendum will take place and it'll be extremely rigged to overcome the fact the Russian majority there isn't as pronounced as many think. Crimea will become a separate state (it already has autonomy). It'll then apply to join Russia and be fast-tracked in by mid-summer.

The EU and the IMF will bail out the rest of the country but the resulting hardships (bye-bye cheap gas + the loans will come with strings attached) will make the protests in Greece seem like child's play.

Best case? A federated republic without Crimea, a few years of grudging hardship then

Worse case? A war which no one wants.

Personally I think war will be avoided, Putin wouldn't risk it but I doubt the two sides of Ukraine, who plainly despise each other, will put up with the situation for long. They're probably headed for divorce and it won't be a pretty one.

Heck if I was more cynical I'd quote Edward Grey. 'The lights are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.'