Brazil (1983: Doomsday)

History
Redemocratization was on the verge of happening when Doomsday occured, on September 26th, 1983. No Brazilian city was directly struck, but three US warheads, due to failure on their guidance system, struck Brazilian territory. One hit in the middle of the Amazon Rain Forest, on the state of Pará (in a large unpopulated area), otherhit the Northeastern sertão on the state of Pernambuco, about 100 km from the city of Petrolina. Another one hit in the vicinity of the city of Goiânia, capital of the state of Goiás, 250 km from the capital, Brasilia. The Amazon and the Northeastern warheads went off, causing massive fires on the Amazon rain forest and, causing the immediate death of about 50,000 people on small villages in the region due to the explosion and other 100,000 dead due to radioactive illness or fallout (not counting indigenous natives on the Amazon which were unnacounted for), but the Goiânia warhead didn't go off, but leaked radioactive materials which contaminated a large portion of the city. It was believed that the failed warhead was indeed targeted to the capital Brasília (and the other two misguided warheads were directed at other South American capitals), but since all of the American nuclear facilities were destroyed on Doomsday, no evidence was left to support that theory.

Due to the global war situation, the redemocratization proccess was halted. Paulo Salim Maluf, which was the military appointed candidate (even though being a civilian) for presidency was withdrawn from the candidacy, and General Joao Figueiredo, president of Brazil at the time, was succeeded by another military: General Walter Pires de Carvalho.

The halting of democratization, at the same time that many Brazilians mourn the deaths of the 50,000 on the Northeastern region and the numerous Brazilians that lived in large US cities such as Boston and New York, led to massive rioting in Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, Belo Horizonte and Porto Alegre. Since Brasilia (the capital) was a merely administrative city, with the majority of its population or being in the public service, or being on commerce (supporting the public service), there were few protests there, easily suffocated by the military.

Rebellion was suffocated on Rio, Sao Paulo and Belo Horizonte, with most of the rebellious leaders (including Lula da Silva, Franco Montoro - governor of Sao Paulo state but which supported the rebellion, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Ulysses Guimarães and others who were part of the "Diretas Já" movement which was forming prior to Doomsday) imprisoned or killed, but not without great loss of life, both rebel and military, not counting civilians caught on mid-fire.

In Porto Alegre the government didn't go so well, specially because local rebels were also supported by the local military. State of Rio Grande do Sul seceded from Brazil in 1986, forming the Republica dos Pampas (Porto Alegre as the Capital), with Pedro Simon nominated as president. The local military which were against the secession were offered an opportunity to join the Pampas military force, or return unharmed to Brazilian territory with their families and personal belongings. Very few opted to go back, with the vast majority of the Gaúchos army favorable to the redemocratization of Brazil and choosing to stay with Rio Grande do Sul (now República dos Pampas).

The growing separatist movements, along with the rioting (which continued on major cities, even though not so intense) and the halting (now completely) of the democratic process led to another Congress shutdown in 1987 and another state of siege declared. On October 5, 1988 (note: in OTL this was the date the 1988 Constitution was promulgated by the Constitutional Assembly), AI-18 (Institutional Act number 18) was outorgated by the president, restricting civil and political rights once again and being even more hardlined than the 1968 AI-5. Official curfew was declared on all capitals and major cities (in fact it was in all of Brazilian territory, however there was no personel available to guard all of the Brazilian cities), with the restriction of public gathering on all of Brazilian territory, including demonstrations, religious celebrations, or even cultural (such as Carnaval) or sports events. These events (religious, cultural and sports) could be held, however with no local public, only being transmitted through TV, which rendered that kind of event inaccessible to large portions of the Brazilian population, due to EMP damage on satellites and installations, specially on the Northern and Northeastern regions. Universities (both public and private) were under strict monitoring from the government, with student organizations banned and deemed as illegal (once again).

A large section of State of Santa Catarina (including the Capital, Florianopolis) seceded from Brazil in 1989, joining the República dos Pampas. Since most of the military force was allocated on larger cities to enforce curfews and control rioting, there was little resistance from federal forces. Anyway, there was support to the República dos Pampas among the military stationed on Santa Catarina as well. However, at that time, Brazilian government hasn't recognized República dos Pampas sovereignty, occasionally attempting to regain that territory.

Former congressman Ulysses Guimaraes, who was arrested on the 1986 riots, dies in prison in 1989, of a heart attack. Although suspicious (since mr. Guimaraes was in good health conditions when arrested), the investigation of his death led to the assumption that his heart attack was related to his advanced age.

Successful secession of State of Santa Catarina along with the incapatibility of the central government to uphold the separatist states led to another breath of hope to anti-dictatorship protesters. Despite the siege state declared by AI-18, resistance began to gather in Sao Paulo in 1990, and even with a few arrests, continued to gain strength. The underground movement expanded its arms to Rio de Janeiro and some portions of Minas Gerais (including the capital Belo Horizonte) and movement members from the three states (which are the most industrialized of the entire Brazilian territory, and have most of the country resources, including oil and sugarcane crops - both essential for Brazilian fuel production) began talks with the Republica dos Pampas for a covert shipment of weapons and supplies. The Pampas government published a bill stating that when Brazilian democracy is effectively reinstated, there will be an referendum on the Republica dos Pampas to decide whether or not to rejoin Brazil.

In Christmas 1990, rebels in Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte, in a coordinated and "surprisingly" surprise attack (Brazilian intelligence agencies were more concerned on detaining and torturing isolated students, teachers and mobsters than assessing real threats), took over the government of the State of Sao Paulo, State of Rio de Janeiro and State of Minas Gerais, entrenched themselves on the government facilites of those states with no loss of life, threatening to seccede from Brazil unless general elections with free party association are immediately called, all political prisoners were immediately released, and AI-18 is lifted. The State of Parana, State of Espirito Santo and State of Bahia, along with the remainders of state of Santa Catarina on Brazilian territory, endorse the rebels declaration. Other states remain neutral, waiting to see what happens, or having problems of their own to deal with (specially some North and North Eastern states which had to deal with fallout consequencies and starvation due to increased drought because of the war).

Facing the threat of deindustrialization and shortage on fuel supply, Brazilian military government (president now General Leonidas Pires Gonçalves) had no option than to open talks with the rebels. República dos Pampas sent representatives to the negotiation, ractifying the promise of a referendum if free elections were held on Brazil. The meeting took place on New Year's Eve, and was known as "Acordos do Ano Novo" (New Year Accords). The summit ended on January 10th, with the following guidelines established:
 * Immediate release of all political prisoners in Brazil, with full amnesty. Among the notable leaders released were Luis Inacio Lula da Silva and Fernando Henrique Cardoso.
 * Immediate lifting of AI-18, restoring all civil liberties.
 * Full free elections due to November 15th, 1991. The election for Congress would create an National Constitutional Assembly, in order to make a new Constitution for Brazil.
 * Reopening of the Congress and all Legislative branches
 * Transition government supervised by the former Senate (formed by the senators that were still alive, representing each State)
 * Recognition of República dos Pampas by Brazilian Government if reunification were to be rejected by its people on the referendum.

República dos Pampas, as a gesture of good faith, executed the referendum on April 21st, with a landslide victory for reunification, 89% willing to rejoin Brazil, 8% willing to remain independent and 3% abstention. This allowed not only the end of hostilities, but also allowed Gaúchos and Catarinenses (natives from Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina) to run for presidency and other political jobs.

Candidates for the 1991 elections were: Luis Inacio Lula da Silva (PT), Paulo Salim Maluf (PDS), Fernando Collor de Mello (PRN), Mário Covas (PSDB) and Olivio Dutra (PRPG), among others less noticeable. This was the first multilateral direct election since 1960, when Jânio Quadros was elected. Mário Covas died of cancer during the campaign and was replaced by the sociologist Fernando Henrique Cardoso, whom was also arrested during the AI-18. Results for the first term were: Lula 22%, Fernando Cardoso 21%, Paulo Maluf 12%, Fernando Collor 12%, Olivio Dutra 10%, others 20%, abstension 3%.

Second term elections were held on December 6th, with Fernando Cardoso as the winner, with 52%, Lula with 47% and 1% abstension. Fernando Cardoso took office on January 1st, 1992.

Brazilian economy wasn't collapsing, many of the American/European multinationals (specially on the automotive and machinery industries) already had branches in Brazil, and transferred their administrative operations to Brazilian soil. Ford and Volkswagen united to form AutoLatina, a joint-venture to mutually improve technology of their products, although the individual "DNA" of each brand would be untouched (including the brand names, which remained as Ford and Volkswagen). However, inflation was high, and a reestructuration of the economy was needed, since there were bills of million cruzeiros or even billion being printed. There came Plano Pré-Real, in 1993, which locked out most of the savings accounts for six months, in order to reindex the economy to another form of wealth (since the US dollar was worthless due to the destruction of the US). Some protesters complained but most of the population was tired of fighting and saw that as an prospect of a long term improvement for all the population. After the six months period, came the Plano Real in 1994, which created the Real currency (1 real = 1 million cruzeiros) and all savings accounts were converted to the new currency and released to the public.

With the increase in employment due to migration of the corporations to Brazilian soil, along with the reduction on the population (due to the aftermath of the nuclear war), the Brazilian economy began to thrive. The new 1992 constitution established new groundrules for Brazilian politics, including the complete banishment of politics-related prisions and the limiting of two terms for President, Governor and Prefect. The first elected candidate would have a term of of 6 years, all later terms would be 4 years.

In 1997 elections, Fernando Cardoso was reelected on the first term, with 51% of the votes, Lula with 33%, the remainder with 10%, and 6% abstention.

Plano Real continued to improve Brazilian economy. Talks begin with other South American countries to form a Confederation of South America. Brazilian companies continued to go to other South American countries, which was called as "Imperialismo Brasileño" by some leaders.Fernando Henrique Cardoso had the longest term for a Brazilian free elected president on history (10 years).

In 2001 elections the former syndicalist leader Luis Inacio Lula da Silva is elected president with 60% of the votes, against 25% of the Fernando Cardoso supported candidate Geraldo Alkmin, 10% of others, and 5% abstention. Fernando Cardoso was probed for running to the government of Sao Paulo, but he was taxative on retiring from politics.Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, in tribute for Fernando Cardoso part on the restoration of Brazilian democracy and economy, offered him a position as Foreign Relations minister, which he declined.

In 2002, investigations confirmed that the heart attack suffered by former congressman Ulysses Guimaraes when in prison was not caused by old age, but in fact by torture. Many others whom were killed by the military regime, many missing, had their files revealed.

In 2003 an terrorist attack on a Petrobras refinery on Santa Cruz de La Sierra, Bolivia, killed 80 technicians (both Brazilian and Bolivian) and injured another 142, cutting half of the gas supply to Brazil. The attack was credited to "Unión Nacional Indigenista", led by Evo Morales.Morales denied the attack and claimed that UNI is a peaceful organization. The attack was, in fact, staged by the FARC in order to destabilize international relations in South America and prevent the formation of the Confederation, as further investigations established.

In 2004, the Confederation of South America is officially formed as a supranational organization, its first President being Nestor Kirchner, from Argentina. Plans are to lift all South American borders by 2008.

In 2006, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva is reelected. Discovery of crude oil in the "pre-salt" layer on the Atlantic Ocean leads to another hump up on the Brazilian economy.

Before Doomsday
Before Doomsday, Brazilian economy was based primarily on agriculture and manufacturing. Brazilian Market was in a protectionist stage, with imports largely restricted, but no restrictions to exports, which led to some technological delays in the internal market.

Status of Brazilian industry on September 26th, 1983
Although imports were restricted, Brazil was a large exporter of agricultural goods (specially soy grains and meat) and had an uprising participation in automobile exports, specially to Third World countries (South American, African and Middle Eastern), but there were also exports to some European countries, most noted being Italy which imported FIAT cars made in Brazil. There was also a live internal market of home electronic and household appliances. The internal market for personal computers (mostly 8-bit Z80 processor based Sinclair and MSX clones, but also some Apple IIe clones and IBM PC Clones) was also thriving. Aerospatial industries was represented by EMBRAER, which was a large scale supplier of military training aircraft (mostly Tucanos and Super Tucanos) and was beginning to design airliner jets at DD.

At DD, Brazil was also a large exporter of conventional weapons, most noted being the Urutu light armored vehicle and the Engesa EE-4 and EE-6 light general purpose vehicles, jeeps based on General Motors drivetrain.

Automotive Industry on September 26th, 1983
Most of the automotive industry in Brazil was comprised of branches of multinational corporations based on US and Europe.

The “Big Four” in Brazil were:


 * Ford Automóveis do Brasil S.A. (a branch of Ford Motor Company from US), with its headquarters on São Bernardo do Campo, in the São Paulo metropolitan region, and additional factories, being most noted the Taubaté engine plants.
 * Volkswagen do Brasil S.A. (a branch of Volkswagen AG from Germany), stationed also on São Bernardo do Campo.
 * General Motors do Brasil S.A. (a branch of General Motors from United States), stationed on São Caetano do Sul, also near São Paulo.
 * Fiat Automóveis do Brasil S.A.

With the exception of Fiat (which produced only small cars at the time), all the others were in all branches of automotive industry, manufacturing not only automobiles, but small and large trucks and coach buses.

Other companies on Brazilian automotive industry were:


 * Gurgel Automóveis do Brasil LTDA : a Brazilian company, specialized on making jeeps and dune buggies based on Volkswagen Beetle drivetrains
 * Mercedes-Benz do Brasil LTDA: A branch of Daimler-Benz AG from Germany, stationed on São Bernardo do Campo, producing only cargo vehicles such as trucks and passenger transport vehicles (large buses)
 * Scania-Vabis do Brasil: a branch of Swedish SAAB-Scania group, producing only cargo vehicles and drivetrains for coach buses.
 * Volvo do Brasil: a branch of Swedish Volvo Cars, producing only cargo vehicles and drivetrains for coach buses.
 * Honda do Brasil SA: a branch of japanese Honda Motor Co., stationed on Manaus (Amazon region), dominated nearly 75% of the Brazilian motorcycle market at Doomsday.
 * Yamaha Motores do Brasil SA: A branch of Japanese Yamaha Motor Co., also stationed on Manaus, producing motorcycles.
 * Agrale do Brasil S.A.: Motorcycle manufacturer which produced motorcycles licensed from French Cagiva.
 * Amazonas Veículos Especiais LTDA. A small scale motorcycle manufacturer which produced the Amazonas, which was the world largest motorcycle at that date, with Volkswagen 1600 drivetrain.
 * Marcopolo S.A.: a Brazilian bus manufacturer, which produced bodies for all kinds of coach buses, stationed on Caxias do Sul, state of Rio Grande do Sul. Was a large exporter of bus bodies at the time.
 * Several other smaller manufacturers, specialized on small production sports cars, replicas and dune buggys, most of them based on Volkswagen drivetrains.

Electronic and Household appliances industry on September 26th, 1983
Home electronics and household appliances industry was concentrated on the Amazon region of the city of Manaus. In the home electronics business the largest companies were Gradiente (which used mainly Sony and JVC technology) and CCE, but there were also some other smaller companies.

In the household appliances business, the largest companies were Brastemp and Consul, leading manufacturers of refrigerators and similar appliances, along with Continental, leading manufacturer of stoves and ovens.

Computer industry on September 26th, 1983
Due to the Computer Restriction Law, imports of computer components was largely restricted. This led to an interesting phenomena on Brazilian computer market: the manufacturing of clones. On the 8-bit market the lead was from Microdigital, which produced Sinclair clones (TK82C) and Apple IIe clones (TK3000), and on the 16-bit market the lead was from Sid, Scopus and Novadata, which produced IBM PC clones on their plants. Gradiente and CCE (from home electronic business) also produced their own personal computers, MSX clones.

It is important to mention that the Computer Restriction Law imposed restrictions on usage of electronics on other areas, which explains why in 1983 there were, for example, no EFI cars in Brazilian domestic market (although some were built for exports).

Miltary and Aerospatial industry on September 26th, 1983
Brazil was a large exporter of light conventional weaponry, specially light armored vehicles and general purpose vehicles (jeeps) produced by Engesa. Iraq was one of the biggest clients, along with other Middle Eastern and African countries.

In the aerospatial industry, EMBRAER was known by its high-quality training aircraft, such as the Tucano and the Super Tucano. There were also projects for airliner jets being prepared when DD occurred. EMBRAER was also responsible for the maintenance of the Brazilian Air Force Mirage F-1 and F-5E Tiger fighter jets.

Light weapons (revolvers and pisols) were manufactured by several companies, the most known being Taurus.

Brazil had no missile technology, so rocket-propelled weapons were limited to rocket launchers produced by IMBEL.

Energy
Brazilian energy matrix was composed primarily of hydroelectrical power plants.

Fossil fuel was used primarily on industry and long range transport (diesel-powered trucks and coach buses). Personal vehicle fleet, although primarily powered by fossil fuels (gasoline) until 1979, was being replaced by ethanol-powered cars, which comprised nearly 50% of the Brazilian automobile fleet as of 1983. So, oil imports weren´t much of a concern to Brazilian economy at the time.

Foreign Trade on September 26th, 1983
When Doomsday occurred, Brazilian foreign trade was composed of:

-         limited imports of oil

-         large exports of meat (red and white), soy grains, wheat grains, corn grains, oranges and other fruits

-         growing exports of home electronic and household appliances (limited to South America)

-         thriving exports from the automotive industry (mostly to Latin America, Africa and Middle East, but with some clients on United States and Europe)

-         Respectable exports of military vehicles and training aircraft, specially to African and Middle Eastern countries (Iraq being one of the largest buyers of Brazilian armored vehicles)

Brazilian Industry and Economy after Doomsday
It is reasonable to say that Brazilian protecionist policies somehow shielded Brazilian economy from the worldwide collapse that happened in the world after DD, making it possible to Brazil to become, among other achievements, the largest manufacturer of motor vehicles on the post-Doomsday world, and one of the largest suppliers of food.

Immediately after Doomsday, all exports were halted for reevaluation of priorities. Food exports were halted in order to prioritize the feeding of Brazil´s own population.

Multinational companies (specially on the automotive industry) were statized, having their control transferred to Brazilian government, although keeping 49% of the companies to Brazilian stockholders. This measure was necessary to prevent the dismantling of Brazilian industry and consequent unemployment and supply shortage.

Home electronic and computer companies went through a shortage of components (mostly imported from Asia and US), which led to the development of Brazilian technology on those fields, first by reverse engineering of the existing components (which was considered a top priority by Brazilian government since electronics were fundamental on the industrial processes that needed to be kept operational), later by the development of its own technology on microchip manufacturing.

Due to the shortage of food on world market, ethanol-powered cars were limited to 50% of the production mix, in order to keep a minimum of the sugarcane crops directed for food production. Oil for producing gasoline fuel was to be imported at extremely low prices from Venezuela anyway (which had no other clients).

Manufacturing of large trucks and coach buses went up, since transportation of goods and people through the surviving countries was essential for reconstruction and humanitarian aid.