Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-10975360-20140530130134/@comment-32656-20140605085314

That is your opinion - but that is not the reality of it.

Again: 1991, whole different animal than 1992.

As has been established before, the Falklands increased her share of the vote by a not insignificant margin.

Churchill was a popular war leader. Not a "peace leader." Nor did he even bother to campaign, something you are well aware of. Had he done so, it is likely he would have won.

Did look at polls from that time - and your numbers are vastly incorrect. Until late spring of 1991, Tory poll numbers were on average somewhere north of five percent over Labour. One poll even had them with a 17 point margin. Late Spring, more or less dead heat, Labour barely ahead in June, July, and August, and your Tory margins, more or less, in September. Labour ahead by tiny amount in October and November, and back to dead heat in December. And the first half of 1992, more or less dead heat as well. For that matter, the polls also seem to indicate that anger over the poll tax was dropping, as Tory numbers improved somewhat within a few months of its introduction. And, fyi, Major had those (17!) high polling numbers from right after his victory until late spring, not your low ones.

Major would have won a large majority had he had the election in 1991, within the Gulf War victory window.