Finlandia

"I could perhaps have been able to agree to become Napoleon’s ally: but when he attacked the country that had placed its fate in my hands, he could find in me no other than an opponent. The events that shook Europe and that gave her back her freedom are known. It is also known which part I played in that." -Karl XIV Johan

Jean Bernadotte
As the childless King Karl XIII of of Sweden progressed through old age, the Riksdag of the Estates scrambled to find an heir. Eventually, they settled on Jean Bernadotte, a brilliant French general and confidant of Napoléon. In 1810 he arrived in Stokholm, changed his name to Karl Johan, and was proclaimed both Crown Prince and Generalissimus of the Swedish Army. The public expected him to lead a reconquest of Finland, but Karl Johan reached the conclusion that an invasion of Finland would be ruinous. Instead, he developed a plot to invade Norway.

Point of Departure
In January 1812, OTL, Napoléon invaded the Swedish territories of Swedish Pomerania and Rügen, his rationale being that the Swedes were only half-hearted participants in his Continental System, refused to participate in his invasion of Russia, and might turn on him at any time. It was a ridiculous tactical blunder: by doing so, he inflammed the Swedish public against him and gave Karl Johan an excuse to align with Russia and Britain against Napoléon. He invaded Napoléon's ally, Denmark-Norway, and was able to secure control of Norway through the Treaty of Kiel with Denmark in 1814. A brief uprising in Norway was put down, especially after Karl Johan agreed to accept the Norwegian Constitution written by the rebels.

Every event in this timeline, however, ultimately flows from one seemingly small difference: Napoléon did not invade the Swedish territories.

With mounting political pressure to invade Finland, Karl Johan reluctantly decided to join in the invasion of Russia. His superb generaliship and the chaotic state of the Russian army allowed the Swedes to take back not only almost all of Finland, but also the formerly Swedish lands of Estonia and Livonia, and even Courland, in a matter of months. But when Napoléon began to retreat from Moscow, he saw the writing on the wall, and sent envoys in secret to negotiate a peace with Russia. In exchange for the lands the Swedes had conquered, the Russians were given a substantial sum of money and, more importantly, an ally against Napoléon. In December, Sweden declared war on Napoléon.

But the Swedes dedicated most of their army to the fighting the French, and the invasion of Norway was thus somewhat haphazard. While they still overwhelmed the Dano-Norwegian troops and were able to froce Denmark to cede the region, the rebellion under Prince Chirstian Frederik caught the Swedes by suprise. Karl Johan refused to accept the Norwegian Constitution, which only fueled the rebel cause, and forces loyal to Christian Frederik and the Constitution were able to hold on in the west of the country.

While all this was happening in Norway, the congress of Vienna opened. Britain was favourable to Norwegian independence, believing that giving Sweden control of the country would upset the balance of power far to much. Russia, meanwhile, wanted to create a large kingdom of Poland in personal union with Russia, in order to compensate for the loss of Finland and the Baltic regions. The British were opposed to this claim as well, but decided to accept it as the lesser of two evils. Territories had to be given to Prussia and Austria as well, in order to placate them for the loss of Polish land.

A sentiment within the Foreign Office that Britain had compromised to much at the Congress of Vienna and betrayed their principles heavily informed the British negotiating strategy in the Anglo-American convention of 1818. There, the British refused to give in to American demands to the Oregon territory, and through a combination of stubborness, intimidation, and bribery secured British Sovereignty over the entire region in exchange for free trade and freedom of settlement.

By 1819, all factors where in place for the future- a future which would in 200 years see the Industrial Revoultion, the Rise of Nationalism, the Imperial Federation of the British Empire, the Great War in eastern Europe, the Cold War between Democracy and Fascism, and the triumph of the North.