Board Thread:Questions and Answers/@comment-10975360-20131014124545/@comment-32656-20131113081230

Not enough of a national image for Castro - and I could see negative impressions purely based on his name.

Thing with Christie, despite his recent win, with polling for the presidency Clinton is still far ahead of him in his own state, and other Dems are even/slightly ahead with/of him as well.

True, he is one of the frontrunners at this point. However... It means little, imo.

At this stage in the game, there's always several people at the top of the polling. Now, often one of these is the nominee. However, it's also not usually the one polling best this far ahead of the nominations that actually wins it.

Matter of fact, best case scenario is that they have near-joint possession of the lead, and win, like Romney did.

A comparison, of polls from around this timeframe prior to the next election.

2004? Gerphart. 2008? Clinton/Guilanni. 2012? Romney, Palin, and Huckabee, depending on the week.

And, 2016... Christie, Paul, and Cruz basically deadlocked. Most recent has Christie on top, barely. For the Dems, Clinton has a 50%+ lead on Biden.

But, overall, yes - if the teas get behind one guy, convention it is.