Board Thread:New on Alternative History/@comment-72.185.4.15-20130303025444/@comment-3428312-20141214182613

Lordganon wrote: 1. Imo, that "siege" mentality existed long before Brown tried that raid.

2. Considering exactly how and why the Democrats fractured, very unlikely that they back a joint candidate.

3. Seward did not have the support to win the nomination, and would be even less likely to get it without Harper's Ferry.

4. No "easy win." Lincoln, imo, still likely comes out on top.

5. North would only secede if the election was blatantly stolen - i.e. something like Breckinridge is given the spot by the house, despite Lincoln holding a clear plurality of the EVs.

6. He was not neutral, imo. He advocated in favor of the Confederacy from the start, and was against the neutral position adopted by Kentucky until it was clear that it had majority support in its legislature.

7. His views on slavery was that if the state chose to allow it, then in could exist there. True, he doesn't seem to have liked the idea too much, but he thought at the same time that it was their right. Think of it as sort of being like Lee's opinion on the matter. I'm going to use my numbers format for this one, due to the nature of your reply. My apologies if it is somewhat confusing!

1. Not exactly, the fear of a Northern instigated Slave uprising brought about the mentality full force. Up until that point, things had largely went in the South's favor. I will concede, however, that there was a pre-existing fear of what the Northern abolitionists may plan to do.

2. The Harper's Ferry Raid greatly alarmed the South, and lead to it's refusal to even consider a candidate who wasn't a slavery supporter (Reading between the lines, a Southerner most likely). Remove that raid, and the South would be more amendable to a compromise.

3. For the first two rounds of the nomination process, Seward was in the lead for clinching it. Not that hard at all to have him pull through and win it.

4. A united Democrat ticket automatically picks up California and Oregon. Replacing Lincoln on the GOP ticket and keeping Douglas at the head of the Democrat's ticket will result in Illionois, Indiana, and possibly New Jersey as well. They'd have also handily won the popular vote by over 60%, like they did in OTL.

5. The Northern states almost seceded during the War of 1812, and then talked about it from the 1840s onwards (There was even some talk about a Northern confederacy prior to Fort Sumter, IIRC!). With the Civil War not breaking out in 1861, this likely means that Lemmon v. New York is able to get to the SCOTUS, where the Taney Court will probably use it pratically eliminate abolitionism in the North. That would definitely trigger at least the New England states along with New York seceding.

6. He did advocate for the Confederacy, but he went home to Kentucky and basically did nothing for a year until the fighting really started to pick up there. He then became a Confederate General, and the rest is history as they say.

7. Basically, he believed that the Federal government had no right to mess with slavery where he currently existing and that the territories had a right to choose. This is somewhat in align with Lincoln, sans the territories bit.