United States presidential election of 2012 (SIADD)

The United States presidential election of 2012 is the next United States presidential election, to be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, which will be the 57th quadrennial presidential election in which presidential electors, who will actually elect the President and the Vice President of the United States, will be chosen. Republican President John McCain will be eligible to run for his second and final term during this election.

The 2012 presidential election will coincide with the United States Senate elections where 33 races will be occurring as well as the United States House of Representatives elections to elect the members for the 113th Congress. The election will also encompass eleven gubernatorial races as well as many state legislature races.

This may also be the first election in which Puerto Rico is included in the election, it is holding a referendum in February of 2012.

Electoral college changes
The 2010 Census will ultimately decide how the electoral map will be laid out for the 2012 election, but population projections based upon Census updates give a good idea of how the Electoral College will change. The Census occurs every ten years and is the basis for Electoral College reapportionment based on state population changes. According to a study based on the 2007 population estimates the likely changes are as follows.[

Likely gainers

 * Texas - 4 more votes
 * Arizona - 2 more votes
 * Florida - 1 more vote
 * Georgia - 1 more vote
 * Nevada - 1 more vote
 * North Carolina - 1 more vote
 * Oregon - 1 more vote
 * South Carolina - 1 more vote
 * Utah - 1 more vote

Likely losers

 * Ohio - 2 fewer votes
 * California - 1 fewer vote
 * Illinois - 1 fewer vote
 * Iowa - 1 fewer vote
 * Louisiana - 1 fewer vote
 * Massachusetts - 1 fewer vote
 * Michigan - 1 fewer vote
 * Minnesota - 1 fewer vote
 * Missouri - 1 fewer vote
 * New Jersey - 1 fewer vote
 * New York - 1 fewer vote
 * Pennsylvania - 1 fewer vote

States in blue represent states won by the Democratic party in 2008, while names in red represent states won by the Republican party. Based on the 2008 results, this would give the Republican Party a net gain of six electoral votes (for a national total of 287), and the Democratic Party a net loss of six electoral votes (for a national total of 251).

Possible effects of potential House of Representatives enlargement
If the District of Columbia House Voting Rights Act of 2009 is passed by the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives and signed into law by President John McCain, the Electoral College may be expanded by the addition of a new elector. The act, which passed bairley in the Senate on February 26, 2009, and awaits consideration in the House, would replace the congressional delegate from the District of Columbia (at present Eleanor Holmes Norton, a Democrat) with a voting representative in the House for the 112th Congress. Republicans and President McCain has stressed they were unsure about the Act as some Republicans saw this as an way to "cram in more Democrats" as Senator Chuck Grassley said. However if passed and signed into law by the President, the effect it would have to cause the Electoral College to add a new member would be its proposed creation of a new congressional district in the state of Utah, for which a representative would be elected in 2010 to serve in the 112th Congress starting in 2011.

As the number of electors in the Electoral College is the number of United States senators (100) plus the number of voting members of the United States House of Representatives (435) plus a provision of a minimum number of electors for the District of Columbia pursuant to the Twenty-third Amendment to the United States Constitution (3), the addition of two voting House members, one of whom would already be represented in the Electoral College by provision of the Twenty-third Amendment, would likely increase the number of electors to 539, according to political analyst and statistician Nate Silver.

Republican Party Ohio Plan
The Republican Party decided in 2008 that they would implement an Ohio plan that would divide the primary states in their nominating process into three tiers: early states, small states, and large states. It would allow the early states to retain their status and tradition of being states that vote first. By the end of February 2012, nineteen small states (in terms of the Electoral College) would be allowed to vote. In March, the last states, the largest ones, would then have their primaries.

Democratic Party NASS Plan
After the success of Senator Barack Obama's "small state" campaign, the National Association of Secretaries of State(NASS) would put forth an regional primary plan for the Democratic Primaries in 2012. This is still debated if it is to be accepted but the NASS Plan is gaining support. If accepted, primaries would be split into the traditional first primaries Iowa and New Hampshire and four major districted groups of primaries (West, East, South, Midwest, although a Pacific region is trying to be created).

Presidential Conventions
Several cities have expressed interest or intent to bid for the 2012 conventions. Indianapolis, Atlanta, and San Antonio have considered bidding for the 2012 Republican National Convention while Columbus and Dallas have shown interest in bidding for the 2012 Democratic National Convention.

Considering previous national conventions, it is likely that parties will avoid their conventions coinciding with the 2012 Summer Olympics in London, which will run from July 27 to August 12. There has been a trend in recent cycles toward holding the conventions later in the summer.

Potential Republican Candidates

 * President John McCain
 * Vice President Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota
 * Representative Ron Paul of Texas

Incumbent President John McCain is serving his first term and is eligible for a second term. Since 1972, every incumbent President eligible for re-election has been so nominated by his party.

Some conservative Republicans have suggested a potential primary challenge owing to frustration at McCain's moderate stances on immigration; his actions on allowing stem cell research; McCain's continued support for the Campaign Finance Reform act and his fight with the Supreme Court over its retraction; his campaign against earmarking; the normalisation process with Cuba; and the signing of the new START treaty with Russia. On the other hand, he enjoys massive support from both conservatives and moderates for his economic policies and reduction in federal spending and tax cuts; his handling of the War in Afghanistan; his hard stance on the Iran, North Korea, China, Venezuela and Uzbekistan, as well as his improved relations with NATO and Europe.

By 2012, McCain would be the oldest president to have ever served, being 76 years old, and some political analysts question his capacity to endure the grueling demands of the presidency for another term. McCain has refused all rumours of retirement, and the mentioned potential candidates have all denied their interest in contesting McCain. With approval ratings above 60%, Republicans have stated that contesting McCain would split the party and give the play to the Democrats.

Potential Democratic Candidates

 * See also: Nationwide opinion polling for the United States presidential election 2012 - Democrats


 * 2008 Democratic nominee and Senator Barack Obama of Illinois
 * Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York
 * 2008 Democratic VP nominee and Senator Joe Biden of Delaware
 * Former Vice President and 2000 Democratic Presidential candidate Al Gore
 * Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana
 * Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio
 * Senator Mark Warner of Virginia
 * Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts
 * Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana
 * Governor Martin O'Malley of Maryland
 * Senator Jim Webb of Virginia
 * Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri
 * Former Chairmen of the Democratic Party Howard Dean of Vermont
 * Former Representative Harold Ford of Tennessee
 * Governor and Chairmen of the Democratic Party Tim Kaine of Virginia
 * Governor Brad Henry of Oklahoma
 * Governor Janet Napolitano of Arizona
 * Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas
 * Senator Ken Salazar of Colorado

Potential Independent Candidates

 * Mayor of NYC Michael Bloomberg of New York
 * Former Governor Jesse Ventura of Minnesota
 * Attorney and Political Activist Ralph Nader of Connecticut
 * Richard H. Clark of Maryland
 * Michael D. Elder of Texas
 * Thaddaus Hill of Texas
 * Robert Milnes of New Jersey
 * Former journalist Joe Schriner of Ohio

Potential Libertarian Party Candidates

 * Libertarian 2008 VP nominee and Entrepreneur Wayne Allyn Root of Nevada
 * Representative Ron Paul of Texas
 * Libertarian Vice Chairmen and 2008 Presidential candidate Michael Jingozian of Oregon

Potential Green Party Candidates

 * Punk Rock Musician and Activist Jello Biafra of California

Potential Constitution Party Candidates

 * Activist and former Diplomat Alan Keyes of Maryland
 * Diane Beall Templin of California

Potential Party for Socialism and Liberation Candidates

 * Political organizer and 2008 PSL President nominee Gloria La Riva of California

Potential Prohibition Party Candidates

 * Artist and Activist Gene Amondson of Washington