Norwegian parliamentary election, 2009 (President McCain)

Parliamentary elections will be held in Norway on September 14, 2009. Early voting will be possible from August 10, 2009, while municipalities may choose to also hold open voting on September 13. Voters will elect 169 members for the Storting, which is elected for four years at a time.

Candidates will be elected on party lists in each of the 19 counties. The political parties will nominate candidates for these lists through autumn 2008 and the winter of 2009. The party lists must be registered by March 31, 2009.

Participating parties
Registered parties which at the last parliamentary election (in Norwegian parliamentary election, 2005) received more than 5000 votes nationwide, or 500 votes in a single county, are able to participate in the elections without special requirements.

These parties are the seven parties currently represented in parliament:
 * Centre Party (Senterpartiet)
 * Christian Democratic Party (Kristelig Folkeparti)
 * Conservative Party (Høyre)
 * Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet)
 * Liberal Party (Venstre)
 * Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet)
 * Socialist Left Party (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)

in addition to the following parties, not currently represented in parliament:
 * Christian Unity Party (Kristent samlingsparti)
 * Coastal Party (Kystpartiet)
 * The Democrats (Demokratene)
 * Green Party (Miljøpartiet De Grønne)
 * Pensioners Party (Pensjonistpartiet)
 * Red (Rødt)
 * Sami People's Party (Sámeálbmot bellodat/Samefolkets parti)

Other parties or groups wishing to participate in the election must collect 500 signatures in each county in which they wish to participate.

MPs not running for re-election
Several prominent MPs have stated that they will not be seeking another term in parliament in 2009. Among these are: Former party leaders:
 * Odd Einar Dørum (Liberal)
 * Åslaug Haga (Centre)
 * Thorbjørn Jagland (Labour, former Prime Minister)
 * Jan Petersen (Conservative)

Former and present government ministers:
 * Olav Akselsen (Labour)
 * Karita Bekkemellem (Labour)
 * Sylvia Brustad (Labour)
 * Øystein Djupedal (Socialist Left)
 * Reidar Sandal (Labour)
 * Karl Eirik Schjøtt-Pedersen (Labour)
 * Hill-Marta Solberg (Labour)

Possible outcomes
By early 2008, Norwegian media was already speculating about possible outcomes to the election, and politicians were making statements about their preferred coalition partners. No single party has had a majority in the Norwegian parliament since 1961, and the largest party in the previous election won only 61 of the 169 seats. The overwhelming likelihood is therefore that the election will lead to the formation of a coalition government, a minority government, or both.

The prime minister, and leader of the Labour Party, Jens Stoltenberg, has stated that Labour will campaign for a renewed majority for the ruling coalition, the so-called Red-Green Coalition, consisting of Labour, the Socialist Left and the Centre Party. If these three parties win a majority in the election, the current government will therefore most likely continue in power.

If the ruling coalition loses its majority, the consequences are less clear. The coalition is unlikely to remain in power as a minority government. But the four non-socialist opposition parties currently in parliament, the Conservatives, the Liberals, the Christian Democrats and the Progress Party, do not form a united block.

The leader of the Liberal Party, Lars Sponheim, stated in September 2007 that the Liberal Party will not be a part of, or support, a coalition which includes the Progress Party, and that the Liberal Party prefers Labour's Jens Stoltenberg as prime minister, rather than the Progress Party leader, Siv Jensen. The Liberals would prefer to form a coalition with the Christian Democrats and the Conservatives.

The leader of the Christian Democrats, Dagfinn Høybråten, has also stated that his party will not be part of a coalition with the Progress Party, but has not ruled out supporting such a government.

The Progress Party leader, Siv Jensen, has stated that her party will not support a coalition government which it does not participate in, thus apparently ruling out a minority coalition of the Conservatives, the Liberals and the Christian Democrats, like the government of Kjell Magne Bondevik which was in office from 2001 to 2005. She has also stated that the Progress Party is willing to form a minority government alone, if it should win more seats in parliament than the other three non-socialist parties and also a government with Conservatives, Christian Democrats and Liberals.

The Conservative leader, Erna Solberg, has called on the other three opposition parties to take part in talks with the Conservatives on forming a non-socialist alternative to the ruling coalition. Solberg sees her party's role as a "bridge-builder" between the centrist Liberals and Christian Democrats and the right-wing Progress Party, since both the Liberals and Christian Democrats want to take part in a coalition with the Conservatives, as does the Progress Party.

The Labour Party may form a minority government on its own, if the ruling coalition should lose its parliamentary majority. The tabloid Verdens Gang claimed in March 2008 that this is considered a real possibility by the leadership of the party. The county mayor of Sør-Trøndelag county, Tore O. Sandvik, was quoted as supporting this option.

Average of polls
The following table gives the average of the 9 main monthly opinion polls (Synovate, Opinion, Gallup, Sentio BT, Sentio DN, Norstat NRK, Norstat VL, Respons and Infact).