Europäische Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft 1919

Point of Divergence
A planned meeting in Silesia between the Kaiser and his staff scheduled for January 4, 1917 is postponed due to the illness of the Kaiser. (Wilhelm had also wished to postpone the discussion on the admiralty's memo on unrestricted submarine warfare.)

Timeline
In late January 1917, the German ambassador to the United States cabled the German foreign minister:

''[Colonel] House suddenly invited me to visit him. . . If only we had confidence in him, the president was convinced that he would be able to bring about peace conferences. He would be particularly pleased if Your Excellency were at the same time to declare that we are prepared to enter peace conference on the basis of his appeal. . . If the U-boat campaign is opened now without further ado, the president will regard this as a smack in the face and war with the United States will be inevitable. . . . On the other hand, if we acquiesce in Wilson's proposal and plans come to grief on the stubbornness of our enemies, it would be very hard for the president to come into the war against us even if by that time we begin unrestricted submarine war. It is only a matter of postponing the declaration for a little while. . . . I am of the opinion that we shall obtain a better peace now by means of conferences, than we should if the United States joins the ranks of our enemies.''

The German Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweig is informed of this message.

In February, 1917 American President Woodrow Wilson once again offers to mediate peace between the warring European powers, inviting all to Washington, or offering to come to Europe. Wilson announces his Ten Point Peace Plan in a speech to the America Congress. German chancellor Bethmann-Hollweig convinces the Kaiser to accept Wilson's mediation proposal, to give equivocal support to the "10 points," and to delay the resumption of unrestricted submarine warfare, arguing that only if the United States remains neutral Germany can prevail. Bethmann-Hollweig is convinced either the conference will occur or the Entente will refuse Wilson's offer out of hand, giving Germany the justification to resume the U-boat campaign. The general staff and admiralty bitterly oppose the chancellor who agrees to withdraw his opposition if the Entente refuses Wilson's offer. Wilhelm agrees to the delay. The chancellor on behalf of Germany publicly accepts Wilson's offer to mediate. Britain and France refuse. The American Congress adjourns and Wilson is now more committed to keeping the United States out of the war, despite the effect on the American economy of the lack of trade with both sides in Europe, and especially Britain. Germany resumes unrestricted submarine warfare in May, 1917. American and neutral shipping largely remain idle in port. By November, 1917 an average 500,000 tons of shipping is sunk each month by U-Boats, and England and France run out of credit in the American markets.

After formally concluding peace with Russia and Roumania in early 1918, and following the mutinies of the French armies in late 1917, Germany plans a a massive offensive in the West in the spring of 1918, after freeing up significant manpower from the Eastern front. (However, Germany is also compelled to assist Turkey in the Arabian peninsula and to garrison Ukraine.) The offensive succeeds in critically reducing the morale of the French and British. Combined with the deteriorating domestic situation for Britain after the loss of American trade and unrestricted submarine warfare, Britain on behalf of herself and her ally France, communicate with Wilson with the object of seeking an armistice. During Winter, 1918 riots and strikes have broken out in various British cities, and in April 1918 shortly after the announcement of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, a "soviet" is declared in Glasgow, Scotland, and in several other British cities. In May, 1918, strikes sweep Britain, France, but also war weary Germany and her ally Austria-Hungary. Britain and with tacit consent of France, communicates directly with Germany and requests an armistice. Germany agrees, on condition Britain lift its naval blockade and return its navy to port. Britain reluctantly agrees. A commune in Paris is proclaimed. The French Socialist Republic is declared, and the commune is suppressed by the French Army.

Armistice
In early June an armistice is signed. In July, in the middle of the Russian civil war, the Czar and his family are murdered near Ekaterinburg, as the "Czech Legion" moves westward through Russia. Germany and the United States begin supplying arms to the "White Russian" armies. Britain will soon follow suit, as the governments of Britain, France, and Germany see a great menace in Bolshevism. However unrealistic the possibility and despite his animosity toward Britain, Wilhelm II does not want to see his British cousins meet the same fate as the Czar.

Peace conference
Germany, having previously accepted Wilson's mediation offer, cannot decline now, although Germany does not trust Wilson. Germany, facing serious domestic difficulties as well, agrees to a peace conference at Wilson's invitation. Peace negotiations are to take place in New York, USA. Germany's foreboding proves accurate as the USA welcomes separate Hungarian and Czech delegation, over the protests of Austria and Germany, and a separate Polish delegation. This portends the future break up of Austria-Hungary, and the recognition of Polish independence by the Americans.

Despite this the peace negotiations result in territorial concessions in Africa and Asia by France, a new guarantee of Belgian neutrality, and a demilitarized zone along France's frontier with Germany. Germany insists upon a "condominium" with Belgium over the Congo, which will eventually result in transfer of the colony to Germany in 1925. Germany is held to her commitment at the commencement of hostilities to compensate Belgium for damages to property, to which Germany agrees. Britain, although weakened, still has command of the seas, (and is mostly successful in hiding her desperate situation regarding food and fuel from Germany and Austria) and is able to bargain hard with Germany. Wilhelm, as now the most conservative monarch in Europe, proudly claims victory but, ironically encourages a 19th century peace with Britain, much to the dismay of his conservative supporters and sees the preservation of monarchy in Europe, and stemming the spread of Bolshevism, as an important goal. France, however, is subject to similar humiliating terms as in 1871, including the loss of several African colonies and the province of Cochinchina to Germany. Wilson's ideal of a "League of Nations" is given weak support by Germany, but Wilson experiences domestic opposition.

Founding of the EEC
In 1919 Germany forms the European Economic Community (Europäische Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft) This is initially an expansion of the original Prussian Zollverein adding Austria-Hungary, and the newly created countries of the Baltic State, Belarus, Finland, Lithuania, Poland, and the Ukraine. This becomes a free trade zone in Central Europe, leading to significant development of Poland and the Baltics.

Second Congress of Berlin
In 1922 The Second Congress of Berlin was convened upon the imminent collapse of Austria-Hungary after the sudden and untimely death of Karl I. It resulted in the affirmation of the borders of states created from the former Russian Empire, and the ratification of the dissolution of Austria-Hungary which had been only loosely held together by the uncertainty after the war and the force of German arms.

German Emperor, Wilhelm II insisted upon restoration of the heir of his friend Franz Ferdinand to Austrian thrones, and dismissed calls for union between Austria and Germany. (Wilhelm was reluctant to add a large Catholic population to the Empire, and diluting the influence of Prussia against the South German states, and negotiations failed on the topic of bringing Austria proper into the German Empire.) Wilhelm is also reluctant to bring non-Germans into the Empire, despite otherwise cordial relations with the Czechs, after the Great War. Former Austro-Hungarian Admiral Horthy becomes regent in Hungary due to minority of Karl's son Otto, the heir presumptive to the Crown of St Stephen. His regency would last until his death in 1957.

Nations
Baltic State (EEC) Banat Republic (EEC) Lithuania Germany (EEC) Poland (EEC) Austria-Hungary (EEC)