User blog:PitaKang/Funday Monday 2: Could South Korea defeat a North Korean invasion?

One of the "hot spots" of the current world is in the Korean Peninsula, a small peninsula around 85,000 square miles in area. In the northern part of the peninsula is the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, commonly known as North Korea. In the south is the Republic of Korea, known as South Korea. The first Korean war cost over a 2,500,000 Korean lives and 58,000 American lives. Most of South Korea and North Korea were completely destroyed. Since the first war, South Korea has rebuilt itself into a prosperous First World Country. However, the threat of war still looms over the horizon. North Korean troops remain on high alert, ready to storm down the 38th Parallel at any moment. So, can South Korea defeat a North Korean invasion with no United States intervention? The Korean peninsula is a narrow piece of land, 250 kilometers wide at its narrowest point and 1,000 kilometers long at its widest point. The peninsula is characterized with mountainous terrain, and most of the flat land is marshland or rice fields. This would severely restrict armored movements by either side during the war, since the tanks would be restricted by the mountains and bogged down in the marshes and rice fields. The Demilitarized Zone, the unofficial border between the two nations, is 4 kilometers wide and 250 kilometers long. The DMZ is patrolled by over a million troops from both sides and 20,000 armored vehicles, and is planted with a million landmines. Because of the mountainous terrain, there are only three places an invasion can occur. Two places are near the western coast of the nation, the Chorwon and Kaesong Munsan Corridors. Another avenue of attack is through the Taedong Mountains on the eastern coast. The Chorwon and Kaesong Munsan Corridors are the most likely avenues of attack due to them having a straight path down to Seoul. North Korea has 700,000 troops deployed within 100 kilometers of the DMZ, along with 8,000 artillery pieces and 2,000 tanks. The total North Korean military: South Korea has around half the number of ground troops that North Korea possesses, but is much better equipped, trained, and fed. The total South Korea military: If an invasion were to actually occur, North Korea would first kick off the war with a massive artillery barrage, as per usual Soviet/North Korean doctrine. Thousands of rounds would crash into both the DMZ and possibly Seoul. This would be followed by hundreds of thousands of troops and thousands of tanks pouring across the DMZ and crashing into prepared South Korean lines. This would also be accompanied by thousands of Special Forces commandos being dropped from planes and unloaded from submarines. However, said commandos would not be likely to accomplish much since most of the transports would be shot down by American and South Korean fighter aircraft, and submarines would only be able to take so many commandos. In the opening stages of the wear, thousands would die as both sides fight alongside the DMZ. South Korea would have the advantage at the beginning, since North Korea would be invading through an enormous minefield and into prepared bunkers. Furthermore, the average North Korean soldier would be an underpaid, overworked, malnourished man. They would not be able to last long with the constant fighting, running, and shooting. Counter-battery fire by South Korea would destroy much of North Korea's artillery pieces within hours of the invasion, rendering North Korea's prized artillery firepower nonexistent. North Korean equipment is also simply inferior to South Korean equipment. Most of North Korea's military hardware is outdated Soviet equipment, comparable to Iraqi equipment in the 1991 Gulf War. If North Korea does truly attack, their ground armor would be butchered by the much more technologically advanced South Korean tanks. In the air, the modern South Korean air force consisting of F-16s, F-15Ks, and F-4 Phantom aircraft would completely annihilate the North Korean air force of MiG-17s and 19s, although the MiG 21s and 29s would give some trouble. The North Korean air force is much more poorly trained than its southern counterpart, and many planes are in disrepair due to not enough funds. Having gained air superiority, South Korean bombers and helicopters would pummel North Korean troops, but would not be able to bomb North Korea due to absurd numbers of SAMs. They would, however, be able to attack any ground forces with complete impunity. With air superiority and the defensive advantage, South Korea would slowly but surely push North Korean troops back. The North Korean army would bleed itself on the DMZ and back off. Eventually, all North Korean troops would retreat back across the DMZ, creating a golden opportunity for South Korea. South Korea would not, however, be able to counter-invade North Korea due to the heavy reserve presence as well as hundreds of hidden bunkers, mines, and entrenched positions. Thousands of surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles would deter any sort of aircraft or naval approach. A stalemate would quickly ensue. News of defeat would reach the North Korean people, causing general dissent. Even more dissent would be created when rumors reach of troops mass deserting over to the South Korean side. While an actual invasion of North Korea would be impossible, the North Korean invasion could be repulsed, demoralizing North Korea. Conclusion: The North Korean invasion would be crushed, but a follow-up invasion would be impossible without help from the United States.
 * 1,100,000 active military personnel
 * 4,700,000 reserve troops
 * 88,000 Special Forces
 * 3,500 Main Battle Tanks (mostly older T-54/55/59)
 * 3,000 armored personnel carriesr
 * 10,000 artillery pieces
 * 600 aircraft (mostly older MiG 17/19/21s)
 * 630 surface ships
 * 100 submarines (most are mini special forces submarines)
 * 340 support ships
 * 650,000 active military personnel
 * 4,500,000 reserve troops
 * 10,000 Special Forces
 * 2,200 Main Battle Tanks
 * 2,500 armored personnel carriers
 * 4,500 artillery pieces
 * 550 aircraft
 * 100 helicopters
 * 170 surface ships
 * 12 submarines