User blog comment:Saturn120/Scotland Referendum - Aye or Nay?/@comment-4621372-20140916230032/@comment-4621372-20140917225221

I'm not sure where you're getting your facts- let me assure you they are wrong.

A quick survey of the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, and Bloomberg all firmly disagree with you. The Economist is an allround impartial source, the WSJ, though somewhat biased, is unmatched in it's economic analysis, and Bloomberg makes it a point to show both sides and prove why one is correct.

So let's talk about this.

Scotland's industry is pitiful. The only truly strong enterprise is that of electronics, which is strong but even then cannot provide enough jobs for the entire nation.

The single biggest source of manufacturing revenue is the alcohol industry, but that is mostly fueled by tourism, which would die for several years after independence while things were being worked out with the government and immigration (this can be seen in other countries- tourism sharply drops off following independence).

Overall, the industrial sector exports just 14.7 billion dollars in Scotland. This is honestly just sad. And frankly speaking, that's not getting any better. Scotland has just over 5 million people. That will not support  a prominent industrial sector.

Oh, yeah, and most of those exports are based off the EU trade. While Scotland will get into the EU, it will undoubtably lose most of the opt-outs the UK got- so a SIGNIFICANT portion of said revenue can be pissed on.

So let's move on to the service sector.

You GROSSLY underestimate the effect that independence will have on Scotland's financial markets.

The Scottish Banking industry is over TENFOLD the size of their economy. This may sound good, but it is NOT. This is a bubble waiting to happen. This is the kind of crap that caused the 2008 recession and then the subsequent Euro crisis, especially in Ireland.

Now consider that most of that extra assets are actually in the City of London, which, along with New York, is still the world's financial capital. Ask yourself this- are Scottish banks more likely to take a 70% hit in their share price, and possibly default (that's conservative, by the way) over some misplaced sense of patriotism, or avoid all that shite and move to London?

Can you even imagine what that would look like? Half my family is in banking, and they are scared shitless as to the economic implications of Scotland going for it.

Scotland's mining and shipbuilding industries are no longer that powerful- China does them both for cheap now- and in any case, cannot stand up to the resulting financial collapse.

The North Sea isn't even close to the largest- that's Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia- and what has been found is beginning to peak. Though more might be discovered, it is extremely hard to recover oil at the depths we're speaking of, and it costs an arm and three legs to extract.

Right, yes. Russia will suffer EVEN MORE.

But look, neither of us are economic professors, so let's ask the people who have degrees in the subject. So far, I've looked up a number of the most prestigious in the world, all of them are brutally against independence. These are news sources and think tanks who generally delight in disagreeing with each other, but all of them agree on one thing- Scottish independence = bad.

The list?

The Economist, Bloomberg, the WSJ, the Cato Institute, the Brookings Institute, the NYT, Foriegn Affairs, and the Guardian.

Given that just 2 of those are English, I hardly think you can claim that they are biased, either.

So as for your comment about "smearing" the campaign with "false propaganda", let's put this to you again.

What's more likely- that you're wrong, or that nearly every newpaper in the world, including many who almost NEVER agree on ANYTHING, are right?

Oh, and as for your comment about the latest polls- check again. That was a week ago- No has pulled back up since, with a 3 point lead, though to be fair that was the margin of error.

England, by the way, is set to do fantastically over the next decade. That services sector of theirs pulled them through the 2008 recession AND the Euro zone collapse with few scratches.

Dragged Scotland behind it, too.