Brothers No More

This is my attempt at a Southern Civil War victory timeline. There are many like it, but this one is mine.

This Southern victory scenario will try to illustrate the massive changes around the world from this huge change in history. Most timelines on this subject simply have the two republics survive in their original form up until the modern day. That will not be the case in this timeline. How would the North and South handle the world wars? How would they handle the Great Depression, if one occurred? Do slavery and segregation ever die out in the Confederacy? Only one thing's for certain: the American people will never be brothers again.

Points of Divergence
The South could not have won the Civil War based on a single point of divergence. It would have had to be a trend of luck favoring the South, and a few large blunders not happening. To start, the South does not invade Kentucky early in the war. This keeps Kentucky favorable to the South. Secondly, General Albert Sidney Johnston was not killed at the Battle of Shiloh. He was still seriously wounded and was unable to return to the battlefield until 1864, but his survival kept Southern morale higher than it was in OTL. Special Order 191 is never left behind and found by Union forces. The early successes of the Confederacy led to Britain and France seriously considering joining the war on the South's side. Britain eventually decided against it, in part due to having their own cotton production in India, but France wanted a strong ally in America. France sent their ships to break up parts of the U.S. blockade around the South, allowing vital supplies to finally flow in and out of the Confederacy. Later on, Stonewall Jackson was not accidentally killed by Confederate forces, meaning he was present to finish the war. This resulted in a victory at the Battle of Gettysburg (a different battle than the one in OTL, but similar in scale) and a final victory at the Battle of Alexandria in April 1865. This victory destroyed the Union's main force and also their hopes for a victory.

The Treaty of Alexandria officially ended the war. In it, the U.S. agreed to recognize the independence and sovereignty of the Confederate States. The C.S.A. would not include the border states of Kentucky or Missouri, having never effectively controlled either. The South agreed to let West Virginia remain in the Union in exchange for the Arizona Territory (the Southern part of the New Mexico territory) and the area that would later become Oklahoma. The treaty also stipulated that there would be free movement and immigration of citizens between the two nations at least until 1900, and free trade until 1880. The Southern negotiators tried to include a provision in the treaty that would allow any U.S. state to join the Confederacy at any time over the next 30 years, but that was one thing the North wouldn't budge on. Either way, the South had finally won its independence.

Southern Jubilation, Northern Depression (1865-70)
As the end of the war was reported in newspapers across the land, the reaction was starkly different in the now divided halves of America. The South went into a celebratory uproar, the likes of which had never been seen on American soil. For weeks returning soldiers celebrated with their families, reminiscing about the successful war effort and thinking about the bright future of their new nation. War leaders, like General Robert E. Lee, toured the nation and were received by raucous crowds. President Jefferson Davis went on a speaking tour of every state.

Davis was now heralded with the generals as a national hero, but he was not without his critics. His own Vice President Alexander H. Stephens led his opposition. The anti-administration politicians had decried Davis's war strategies of imposing a draft and suspending several essential rights. Now they were silent as the President's means had proven successful, but there were more political battles to come over the remainder of his term.

The mood in the North was the complete opposite of that of the South. Surviving soldiers returned home and wondered what they had been fighting for. Why hadn't the government just let the South secede, saving hundreds of thousands of lives in the process? Grieving families who lost sons and husbands were left with the same question. Universally, the Republican government was blamed both for starting the war in the first place and being so incompetent that they couldn't beat a ragtag group of rebels. Abraham Lincoln became the face of the new disgraced United States, and was nearly universally hated. He had won a narrow reelection in 1864, but the Republicans saw no prospects for success in the future.

The 1866 congressional elections saw massive losses for the Republicans. The Democrats gained seats not because of their actual popularity, but because they were the only true opposition to the Republicans. As far as actual policy goes, the Republicans pledged to outlaw slavery in the U.S. and repair the damage done by the war. The Democrats simply pledged to return the country to normalcy and to foster amicable relations with their now-independent Southern brothers. The Democrats' plan sounded much better to the exhausted public. People wanted to be done with the whole slavery business and wanted no part in any plans to further fight the South. Most of all, they wanted to return to their pre-war lives.

The Confederate Government finished fully setting itself up in 1866. The first Confederate Supreme Court justices were appointed in this year by President Davis. The initial court was made up of five justices, and this would end up being the number for a long time. The first justices were Chief Justice Asa Biggs of North Carolina, Henry R. Jackson of Georgia, West H. Humphreys of Tennessee, James D. Halyburton of Virginia, and William G. Jones of Alabama.

The Supreme Court itself was a matter of debate in the C.S.A.- many politicians felt that there should be no Supreme Court at all, and that the state judges should hold all of the authority. Davis believed in a powerful Supreme Court, which put him in conflict with the anti-administration representatives in Congress. The Confederacy had been envisioned as a nation with no political parties, and for the moment that remained the case. However, just like the early U.S., the South would eventually find out that parties are an inevitability when it comes to running a republic.

The 1867 presidential election was far from contested, however. Davis was satisfactory to most Southerners and was greatly celebrated on his way out. Much of the public and its politicians petitioned war hero Robert E. Lee to run, and in early 1867 he announced that he would indeed seek the presidency. Lee was unsure who to pick as his running mate. He sought the advice of Davis, who recommended his Secretary of State Judah P. Benjamin. Lee accepted this recommendation.

No one dared to run against the extremely popular general, and he won a unanimous victory to become the Confederacy's second president. He made no promises of great change in his inauguration speech; he simply pledged to continue the prosperous years of the post-war C.S.A.

The 1868 United States presidential election would also not be highly contested, but for a different reason. The Democrats were very confident in their ability to win, and so their nomination was very sought after. It was thought that the 1868 Democratic nomination was a free ticket to the presidency. There was some internal strife between radical and conservative Democrats, but the nomination was fairly straightforward: on the 5th ballot, George H. Pendleton of Ohio was named as the Democratic candidate for president. Augustus C. Dodge of Iowa was nominated for vice president.

The discouraged Republicans hoped to find a candidate who could repair the party's image and re-energize the Republican base. This was not an easy task. Anyone directly associated with the war effort (including generals) or with the Lincoln administration were immediately ruled out. There was a brief push to nominate a moderate Democrat, such as the recently converted Salmon P. Chase, but that idea was soon thrown out. It was eventually decided that compromise wasn't the way to go. The Republicans had to stick to their guns and agressively push their reforms if they wanted to survive as a party, and it was felt that Benjamin Wade of Ohio was best for this job. He was nominated on the 1st ballot. Reuben E. Fenton of New York was nominated for vice president.

Despite the Republicans throwing their entire weight behind Wade's campaign, the Democrats dominated as expected. Pendleton won the electoral vote 201 to 36. The Democrats increased their already large lead in both houses of Congress. This led to politicians leaving the doomed Republican Party en masse. Many joined the Democrats, while others became independents or simply retired from politics altogether. The 1870 midterm election would be the last election the Republicans would ever contest.

Mexican-Confederate War (1870-73)
In early 1870, President Lee of the Confederacy received a plea for help from the nation's closest ally: France. French forces in Mexico had spent the last five or so years fighting to preserve the Second Mexican Empire against republican forces. Now, the situation was desperate and defeat appeared certain. In addition, France had plans to declare war on Prussia and needed every one of their troops back in France. They decided to ask a favor from their new American ally, in the hopes that the experienced army of the South would be able to turn the tide back in Emperor Maximilian's favor. To sweeten the deal, France offered control of the northern Mexican states if the Confederacy was able to keep the Emperor in power.

In truth, the Confederates had already been considering their own, independent invasion of Mexico. They wanted more land to expand slavery into, and a port on the Pacific. The only thing stopping President Lee from declaring war was France's steadfast support of the monarchist Mexican regime. Now, the Confederates had the green light to invade and take the land they wanted. It didn't take long for Lee to accept France's offer. Thus began the Mexican-Confederate War.

The war declaration was somewhat unexpected but well received among the public. Southerners were looking to prove that the Confederacy was a powerful independent nation, and not just a rebel splinter group from the U.S. From the start, it was also a nostalgic reunion for veterans of the Southern Independence War. It was not universally liked, however. There were plenty of people that didn't want the C.S. to get involved in offensive wars on foreign soil. Had they not just fought for independence against a foreign occupier? As the war went on, Lee also enacted many of the policies that had caused politicians to oppose Davis years earlier.

Despite any qualms of some politicians, the war was very successful to start. The Southern soldiers were among the first in the world to be fully experienced in modern warfare, and they steamrolled the republican armies in Northern Mexico. Stonewall Jackson led the war effort, and within four months the Confederates had reached the Pacific Coast of Baja California. They then began moving South, hoping to save monarchist forces from the advancing republicans. By September they had nearly reached Mexico City, but then something unexpected happened: French Emperor Napoleon III was captured by the Germans. This caused a new French Republic to be formed.

The C.S.A. was unsure how to proceed. Would the new French republican government uphold the agreement made by Napoleon III? A telegram was sent to Paris asking how the Confederacy should proceed; the French replied that they were now indifferent as far as the fate of Mexico went. President Lee was left with a big decision. Many in the South called for the war to continue until Mexico was completely conquered and then could be annexed wholly into the Confederacy. Many others called for an immediate end to the war, as the war goals had already been accomplished. They also argued that the entirety of Mexico was much too large for the young C.S.A. to rule. After much deliberation, Lee decided to end the war. He signed a peace treaty with the republican forces that would give the Mexican states of Tamaulipas, Nuevo Leon, Coahuila, Chihuahua, Sonora, and Baja California to the Confederacy. After a threat of invasion, the monarchist government also signed onto this treaty. The war in Mexico did not end when the Confederate troops left. In fact, it was greatly prolonged and did not end until a republican victory in 1877. For generations after, Mexicans blamed the C.S.A. for the permanent destabilization of their country.

The new war heroes returned home to huge ovations. The new Mexican states were soon organized into three Confederate territories: Tamaulipas (containing the old states of Tamaulipas, Nuevo Leon, and Coahuila), Sonora (containing Chihuahua and Sonora), and Baja California. There were no plans of granting statehood to any of this area until a large number of slaveholding Southerners was settled in the new territories.

Up North, the United States was on the road to recovery. The economy took a minor upswing as the Democrats passed legislation that they hoped would bring America back from the dead. The issue of civil rights for blacks was ignored, as many people saw it as inconsequential now that the South was gone. In reality, blacks still faced several rights restrictions in many states, even if slavery was slowly dying out in the Southern border states. Their outlook was grim with no national party devoted to securing their freedom.

The Republican Party was effectively defunct by early 1871, with no more than a few hundred members. Two new parties were formed to fill the void: the American Party and the National Party. The American Party was not related to the American (Know Nothing) Party of the 1850's, and its agenda was focused mostly on the economical side of America. The party advocated higher tariffs and protectionism as their main issues. The National Party had no real driving issue and served as a blanket party for all the Republicans that hadn't joined the Democrats or the American Party. They officially supported outlawing slavery with a constitutional amendment, but they didn't make that issue the foundation of their party. They also had a pronounced nativist element that wanted stronger controls on immigration.

President Pendleton easily won the 1872 Democratic nomination along with Vice President Dodge. With no organized national opposition besides the fledgling new parties, the Democrats were expected to cruise to another easy victory. Neither the American Party nor the National Party expected to win in 1872, they just wanted to get their message out. The National Party nominated James G. Blaine of Maine for president and Joseph Roswell Hawley of Connecticut for vice president. The American Party nominated Henry Wilson of Massachusetts for president and Oliver P. Morton of Indiana for vice president.

The young parties did better than expected, winning a combined three states. Wilson and Blaine both won their home states, and Blaine also won Kansas. Still, Pendleton largely dominated otherwise and came away with a large majority of 259 electoral votes. At his inauguration, Pendleton promised to continue reviving the U.S. economy and to warm relations with the South in time for the 1876 U.S. bicentennial.

One year later, the Confederacy prepared for its own presidential election. President Robert E. Lee was still widely loved by the public, heralded for victories in two important wars. His successor was obvious; General Stonewall Jackson was extremely popular for his role in leading the Mexican-Confederate War and had already been endorsed by the outgoing president. This would, however, be the first presidential election in Confederate history with more than one major candidate. Former Vice President and current senator Alexander H. Stephens announced that he would also be running. He never ran directly against Jackson. He simply presented himself as an alternative to the warrior presidents that had, in his opinion, brought the Confederacy away from its heart of being a decentralized agricultural state. Both Davis and Lee had expanded the federal government's power in their respective wars, and Stephens wanted to put a stop to it. Stephens chose Robert M.T. Hunter of Virginia as his running mate. Jackson chose the charismatic Senator Albert G. Brown of Mississippi as his candidate for vice president.

Jackson never really had a chance at losing, but Stephens was still able to capture three states (Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina). By an electoral count of 90 to 38, Thomas Jackson became the C.S.A.'s third president. Stephens congratulated his opponent and pledged to support the "will of the Southern people." The non-partisan spirit of the South appeared to be alive and well, but, unbeknownst to anyone at the time, Jackson would end up being the last non-partisan president of the Confederacy.

A Brief Moment of Unity (1873-76)
The next few years would be a time of reconciliation between North and South, but this warm in relations would also anger many people in each country.

Before this could happen, though, there was a major issue to be addressed. The South's victory in their war of independence prevented the North from outlawing slavery, but it did nothing to stop the escape of slaves up North. In fact, organizations like the Underground Railroad were stronger and more effective than ever. President Lee had tried to solve the problem through increasing military patrols on the border, and one of President Jackson's first acts was to increase the amount of patrols even further. None of it was very effective- the border was long and impossible to seal completely.

Every Southerner had their own idea on how to capture the escaped slaves. Some proposed embargoing the North until the U.S. government agreed to return escaped slaves to the Confederacy. Others, including Vice President Brown, advocated going to war again in order to force a return of the slaves (and in order to capture Kentucky and Missouri). Jackson, however, realized that both of those methods would be ineffective. Cutting off trade to the U.S. would undoubtedly hurt the South more than the North, and a war against the Union was probably unwinnable with France in such a disorganized state. In any case, massive losses would be sustained in any such military action. The president eventually decided to just ask the U.S. to do something about the escaping slaves. He knew that there was desire in the ruling Democratic Party to warm relations with the South, and that Pendleton had made it a promise of his campaign. He also knew that there was a large amount of Northerners who didn't want any more slaves in their country. Kentucky's state government had already enacted its own law that sent escaped slaves back to the Confederacy.

Jackson promptly sent a letter to his Northern counterpart, and President Pendleton immediately seemed open to the idea. It only took a few more letters before a deal was struck: Pendleton would propose a strong fugitive slave law to Congress, and Jackson agreed to visit the U.S. for the nation's 100th anniversary celebrations in 1876. Pendleton believed, perhaps mistakenly, that the American public would be happy to put the Civil War behind them and celebrate as brothers with their Southern neighbors. The bill was officially put forth in April 1874 and was passed in 1875 after much debate. Reaction was very mixed, even among Democrats. Democrats in border states were almost universally happy with the plan, as they didn't like the massive amounts of slaves passing through their states every single day. Democrats in the Northern states had truly mixed reactions. Politicians from the American and National Parties were almost all appalled by the bill- they thought that the country would no longer have to cater to the South after the war.

In the South, President Jackson heralded the bill as a great victory for the Confederacy. Most were happy with what had transpired, but some argued that the plan would be ineffective. Many still would have preferred a more agressive course of action, and others saw the law as an attempt by the North to start re-annexing the South by getting in their good graces. Vice President Brown was especially outraged. The people that were upset by Jackson's cooperation with the North became even more so when he announced his upcoming trek to Washington, D.C.

The centennial of American independence from Great Britain was widely celebrated in both the North and South. The meeting between the Confederate and U.S. Presidents was less celebrated. On July 4, 1876, Presidents Pendleton and Jackson appeared publicly together in Washington. The two men had hoped that their countries would accept the meeting and start to move past the war; the reality was that the wounds were still fresh and the meeting greatly hurt a lot of people on both sides. It also had grave political consequences for both leaders. In the U.S., Pendleton's perceived pandering to the South outraged the American and National Parties and greatly increased their levels of support. In the South, Jackson's decisions were the final straw in the rise of political parties in the Confederacy. Not long after the meeting, prominent politicians Alexander H. Stephens, Vice President Albert G. Brown, Robert M.T. Hunter, and others united to form the Southern Independence Party. This party aimed to return the Confederacy to its roots of strong states' rights, a weak federal government, strong support for slavery, and government for the common man. By 1878, just over half of Congress had joined the new party. The party also shortened its name to the Southern Party in preparation for its first contested presidential election. Jackson's supporters wanted to form their own party in response, but the president convinced them to hold off. He continued to hope that the Southern Party would fail and the nation would return to its non-partisan ways. This naive decision would end up having disastrous results in the 1879 election.

Rise of the Opposition Parties (1876-)
Despite the president's second term antics, the Democrats still felt they had a strong chance to win the presidential election in 1876. Their nomination was thus highly contested once again. Eventually it was New York's Samuel J. Tilden that won the nomination on the 6th ballot. Thomas A. Hendricks of Indiana took the vice presidential nomination.

The National and American Parties had driven bases, but were still not united enough in cause to field a formal ticket. The National Party convention took place two weeks before the American Party's, and once again they nominated James G. Blaine for president. William A. Wheeler was nominated for vice president. The American Party nominated Roscoe Conkling of New York for president. They then decided to also nominate William A. Wheeler for vice president, unifying the Democratic opposition tickets somewhat.

In the end, Tilden was able to win a sound victory. The opposition did better than the last election, but still only had 69 electoral votes combined. Tilden and Hendricks had 218. In his inauguration speech, the new president promised to fight corruption wherever it may lie in government, and to "steadfastly defend American ideals." That last line was widely interpreted as a promise to not do what Pendleton did when it comes to the Confederacy.

Next, it was time for the South to gear up for its first truly contested election ever. The Southern Party decided to endorse one of their founders and foremost leaders, Alexander H. Stephens, for president. Stephens was widely credited for starting the movement and the party associated with it. They knew that their opposition would once again be a prominent general, and so they wanted to nominate a general of their own as Stephens's running mate. Their first choice for this role was P.G.T. Beauregard, who was currently serving as Governor of Louisiana. Beauregard was reluctant, as he still hoped to be endorsed by Jackson and Lee for president. Beauregard began a correspondence that night with Lee, asking if he was at all likely to earn the endorsement of the famous generals. Lee's response the next morning was simple and clear: "No, not likely." With that, Beauregard accepted the Southern Party's nomination.

Two weeks later, Lee and President Jackson met and reached an agreement: they would endorse their old colleague James Longstreet for president. Longstreet chose Arkansas Senator Augustus Hill Garland to be his running mate. Although the Longstreet-Garland ticket branded themselves as "non-partisan," there was a large apparatus of campaign officials that organized their candidacy. In truth, it functioned like a political party in everything but name.

The election was much more fierce than anything else seen in Southern politics up to that point. The candidates themselves refrained from slinging mud at each other, but their supporters did more than their fair share of slandering. Supporters of Longstreet called Stephens unpatriotic, and said he was just in the race to further his own career. Supporters of Stephens said that the South was at risk of turning into a military dictatorship if the line of general-presidents continued. Many began to attack Longstreet's failures in the Southern Independence and Mexican-Confederate Wars, but Stephens stepped in and asked them to stop. He was afraid that Southerners would turn on him if he was seen as attacking the achievements of the past wars.

Longstreet had the support of the military, but Stephens had the support of the common people. Through a sweep of the deep Southern states and Texas, he was able to win with 70 electoral votes to Longstreet's 58. If Stephens had lost a single one of the states he won, he would have lost the election. At his inauguration in 1880, President Stephens promised to return the Confederacy to the common man. He promised to safeguard Southern dignity and to decentralize the federal government. A few months later, the Jackson/Longstreet supporters decided to officially unite under a single banner, forming the Confederate Party. The differences between the parties may have seemed subtle to an outside observer, but they were very pronounced to Southerners. The Southern Party advocated for states' rights and a weak federal government. They fanatically supported slavery, to the point that they would try to artificially prop it up if it ever began to die out naturally. While they didn't want a weak military, they were against drafts and spending too much money on the military in peacetime. The Confederate Party was very pro-military, and most of the former Confederate officers were members. They wanted to keep a strong standing army even in peacetime, to safeguard against unexpected external threats. They supported drafts in times of emergencies. In order to support a strong military, they supported a more centralized federal government with more means of raising revenue (though by Northern standards this vision government would still have been weak). They did not oppose slavery by any means, but they would let it die out naturally over time if such a thing did happen. Geographically, the Southern Party was most popular in the deep South and was based in Georgia. The Confederate Party was most popular in the northern states of the Confederacy and was based in Virginia. Many of the Southern old guard were disappointed by the formation of political parties; Robert E. Lee remarked that "the Golden Days of our Confederacy are quickly leaving us." General and former President Lee would die five months after Stephens' inauguration from a stroke at age 73.