An Earlier War on Terrorism

By 2005 the so-called "War on Terrorism" was approaching its twentieth year. The assassination of Libya (Earlier War on Terrorism) strongman Muammar al-Qaddafi (Earlier War on Terrorism) by bombing raid on April 15, 1986 struck at the very heart of notions of Arab pride, Islamic unity, and a rejection of an overreaching American foreign policy that had interfered with the Middle East once too often. Almost 20 years later, the United States finds itself almost inextricably enmeshed in foreign wars of varying intensity, its economy reeling from staggering debt levels, clearing the way for the almost unthinkable: economists predict that by 2010 Japan's GNP and GDP will both at least equal those of the United States, if not surpass them. The crumbling Soviet Union is locked in a slow and bloody death spiral, with nationalist insurrections in Georgia and Chechnya flaring up; while it has recovered slightly from the nadir following the Afghan stalemate (ended with the signing of the Sofia Treaty in 1990 which led to the partition of Afghanistan), it remains a tottering giant. And in the Middle East, the Republic of Libya has become a horrendous quagmire for the American armed forces, with casualties going on 75,000 KIA. One bright spot: the Iraq-Israel Accords of 2000 are about to bear fruit, as Israel plans to lend its airstrength to a new and final Iraqi assault on Tehran, as Saddam hopes to emulate the lightning Israeli victory of 1967.

Point of Divergence
In the years preceding the War the United States and Libya had been engaged in a slowly escalating series of attacks, with American naval forces crossing the "line of death" to challenge Libyan territorial claims over most of the Gulf of Sidra, in violation of international precedent. American Tomcats and Libyan MiGs went nose-to-nose on several occasions. Simultaneously, Libyan support for groups like the PLO and their splinter movement and rival, the Abu Nidal Organization, was growing. After a bomb exploded in a West Berlin discoteque on April 5, 1986, killing or wounding many American servicemen stationed nearby, U.S. President Ronald Reagan decided a more strident act of retaliation was necessary.

Our Timeline
On April 15, 1986, elements from both the United States Air Force and Navy conducted a joint raid on the Libyan cities of Benghazi and Tripoli, penetrating the dense air protection provided by Soviet military advisory force with relative ease. Several dozen civilians were killed, allegedly among them the 15-month-old adopted daughter of Qaddafi himself. Qaddafi was nearby one of the strikes but escaped unharmed. Two years later, Qaddafi had some measure of revenge when Libyan intelligence agents blew up Pam Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, killing everyone on board (mostly Americans). It was the highwater mark of his association with international terrorism, and in recent years Qaddafi has repudiated terrorism and moved to normalize relations with the West.

Alternate Timeline: Catastrophic Success
Muammar al-Qaddafi was killed instantly when a bomb dropped from an F-111 bomber made a direct hit on his tent.

The United States
Main article: Modern history of the United States (Earlier War on Terrorism)