What if Pearl Harbor never happened?

Author's Note:

'This is an alternate history featuring the events that would have occurred had Pearl Harbor never been bombed. It is divided into 3 sections: '

1. "The War and its End"

 2. "The Beginning of the Cold War"

 3. "The End of the Cold War"

This does not feature specific events (e.g. specific bombings, specific dates, etc.) Only a general idea of how the world would have developed geopolitically in the aftermath of the new landscape set after the war.

Enjoy.

It’s December 7, 1941

American naval bases in Pearl Harbor lie exploited for attack.

The US oil embargo on Japan has put Japanese expansion into Asia at a slow.

Japan’s anger at the US has prompted talk of the bombing of Pearl Harbor.

On the day that stands in infamy, however, nothing happens.

Japanese planes don’t soar overhead laid back American naval personnel.

Bombs do not fall onto American ships lying like sleeping giants next to ports.

Nothing happens.

So what happens now?

 

Part 1: The War and its End

The Japanese conquest of Asia would be slowed down after the oil embargo. Bitter guerilla warfare with the Chinese would continue and without the proper materials to fund their war machine, the Japanese would become desperate. This would lead into a Japanese pursual of British and Dutch colonies in Asia in order to obtain rubber, tin, nickel, etc. With Britain already waging war with the Nazi Reich in Europe, obtaining these colonies would not come easy due to the previous embargo but eventually the Japanese would be able to capture a few of them. This would only lead to further embargo from D.C., further slowing the Japanese assault onto the Asian continent. A collision course of war between the two nations was still driving at full speed. Pearl Harbor never being bombed only prolonged the inevitable.

However, without American involvement in most of the war, German conquest of Europe would be mostly successful. With no American lend-lease for the Soviets combatting the German invaders, Hitler would have a chance in victory on the Eastern front. Perhaps even a capture of Moscow and victory at Stalingrad would emerge in favor of the Nazis. British aid for Soviet troops would continue, however, and would largely hold off the Reich from further victory. The Nazi momentum would slow. However, with American troops devoid from the war effort against Nazi Europe and Japanese Asia, victory would be clear and in the fingertips of the Axis powers. Absence of American troops on D-Day would be a large player in a failure of the Allied invasion of France, maybe no D-Day at all. This would eventually lead to a successful German victory on the Eastern front and the defeat of the Soviet communists fighting Hitler’s regime. The sun would indeed set on the British Empire, but not the British homeland itself. The Battle of Britain would still arise unsuccessful, largely due to no actual American involvement in the real world. If the Nazis had attempted Operation Sealion, they'd only meet massive failure as the Royal Navy would destroy supply lines. The Nazis would most definitely emerge victorious in their own dominance of Europe, but Japan would meet a much different fate.

With the Chinese forces largely repelling the Japanese in a bitter war and American embargoes slowing the Japanese dominance of Asia, perhaps a similar attack much like Pearl Harbor would occur in sheer Japanese anger at the U-S-of-A. American involvement in the war would begin and an eventual defeat of Japan itself would occur. The war with Japan would most likely end with Operation Downfall being put into effect due to the slow American joining of the war, thus creating a prolonged creation of the nuke and most likely never a creation of the nuke at all. Hitler would declare war on America and probably be able to hold off any Allied invasion after victory in his European conquest. Japan would be defeated, but the Third Reich would be victorious. Britain would be the last remaining democratic and capitalist nation in Europe. America would face a not-so-embarrassing defeat with the Germans given the odds already stacked against the Free World. With the Nazis having obtained Europe with an iron fist, they’d be able to successfully support Italian revival of the Roman Empire and the conquest of Greece, Yugoslavia, Albania, and North Africa. The North African campaign would come to an Axis victory due to Germany facing no distraction and being able to fully support the Italians.

 

Part 2: The Beginning of the Cold War

The geopolitical situation in the world would be tense, obviously. A far more technologically advanced Nazi Germany would compete economically, politically, and militarily with the United States and Britain. Most likely a Nazi production and testing of the first nuke would occur after having completed Hitler’s Lebensraum. It’d take close to 5-7 years for the US to test their own nuclear weapon. This would put the Nazis and Americans in a thick Cold War, both having distrust for the other. The deployment of spies into each country would occur and an arms race would start, much like the Soviet-American war in our own timeline. The Axis takeover of Europe would mirror the Soviet bloc in real world history with Britain acting as the Allied blockade. Fringe fighting on the borders of what would be left of Soviet territory would continue with the Germans fighting a war much like Vietnam with the vastly weakened communist forces. Stalin would go into hiding, either in Siberia or the far back of the Ural Mountains. He’d be a key target of the Nazi Regime in a situation much like the US search for Osama Bin Laden. The Nazis would most likely focus on fixing Europe’s economic situation and mend the wounds left over from the war. Eventually, Albert Speer would be able to turn Berlin into a super-city with the large, domed Volkshalle towering tremendously over the German capital city.

Meanwhile, Nationalist China would emerge victorious in their civil war against Mao Zedong’s communist revolutionaries with communism having failed rapidly from the Nazi victory over the Soviets and heavy support from the US government in favor of the Nationalists. However, large rallies and riots would occur in the streets of China in favor of the communists. China would be falling in anarchy with worker turmoil still striving for shared wealth. A burning fire of vengeance for Japan would burn in the heart of the Nazi government. Japan would be under heavy US occupation in order to restore and keep the peace on the streets of Tokyo and other Japanese cities. Japan would act as a Soviet-Berlin of sorts with the Nazis wanting to restore fascism in the Asian island nation. This would result in possible attempts at coups d'etats in Japan’s government, which would all fail inevitably. This would only bring about continued tension between the Nazis and Americans.

Germany would continue to enforce a “pure aryan race” in which we would see Europe gradually turning more and more German. The Final Solution would eventually finish and see the near extinction of “undesirables.” Although, some of these undesirables would be able to survive by either staying “off the grid” in Hitler’s new Europe or smuggling themselves to Britain or America. As a result of this, Germany would likely shut down all borders temporarily and isolate its nation. However, this isolation would not lower the German citizens’ trust in their government and Germany would continue to economically and politically strive while the Allies would continue to suffer political strife from their loss in the war. Hitler’s presentation of a new, advanced, and “better” Europe would only bring him closer to victory of the Cold War. Ridiculous plans would also be presented such as Operation Unthinkable, a full scale Allied invasion of Germany to drive the Nazis out of Europe and collapse the Reich. They’d never be accepted, though. Along with this, the Nazis would have a much better chance at spreading their influence with many fascist demagogues taking place in countries like Vietnam, India (now freed after WWII), Korea, and more. This would bring about mutual hostilities between the Axis and Allies.

 

Part 3: The End of the Cold War

The rise of fascist politics in America would slowly begin to rise, worrying the US government wildly but all knowing there’s nothing they could do except let free speech continue. With time, the Soviet army would collapse giving the Nazis control over the Ural mountains. Perhaps nuclear bombings of key Soviet military sites would lead to this or just a complete disarray of morale in the Red Army. What was left of the Bolsheviks would retreat to Siberia but most of them would either surrender to the Germans or be killed. Seeing no interest in annexing Siberia, the Germans would not continue any further advance in. Siberia would just become unclaimed territory with small groups of Soviet Nomads wandering it. A Siberian annexation would also just wear out the already tired Nazi war machine due to the war with Soviets.

US Politics (Not British politics, they’d be too left-wing for Nazi supporters. Oswald Mosley would have been arrested) would be plagued with Nazi supporters while Germany would keep a strict chokehold around any resistance to their regime. This would give the Third Reich a large advantage in its political war with the British and Americans. However, even with their political support, underground Resistance movements would fire up traction to fight against the Nazis. These movements would be secretly supported by the US and British governments. Even then, Germany’s iron grip on Europe would remain with the Nazi stronghold largely repelling resistance movements. However, the Reich would face some trouble in putting down the rebellions. This would take away some of the Regime’s political advantage, motioning a large rise on left-wing politics that would be put down as quick as possible by the SS and Gestapo.

This would cause further uproar and anti-Nazi riots occurring across the Reich. They’d easily be contained but this would make the situation even worse. Soon enough, conspiracy theorists and Allied spies would be able to find and reveal the Holocaust and expose the Nazi Regime. This would most likely occur in the 70s, given that the Holocaust would be so tightly protected. The Third Reich would ousted and a total collapse of government would probably happen and an eventual dissolution and fall of the Nazis, especially with resistance movements seizing their chance with the fall. This would bring about the end of the Cold War and probably modern day world borders. The fall, however, would be disastrous with weak governments taking over in place of the countries released from German control, reminiscing the chaos that ensued after the fall of the USSR. The advanced Nazi technology would bring about a new age of prosperity to mankind, however, but much of the tech would either be destroyed or adopted by the surviving Allied Powers.