User blog comment:VonGlusenburg/Alternate universes, probability and alternative outcomes/@comment-4727448-20120814225011/@comment-1630894-20120816212901

It would be ASB if it could not physically happen at the time without a change in the laws of physics. If the only alternate universe that could have this would be one with real-life magic and othe fantastical things, it is considered ASB because they change some fundamental laws of the universe. This does apply to biased things; for example, Luxembourg cannot conquer Germany in 1938 with the POD being the conquest, it is physically impossible for them to be able to do so. A more or less successful Napoleon isn't considered ASB, as both could have happened, and neither have been marked as ASB on this wiki when done well, so using that as your example is faulty. You need to provide an actual ASB example to have any argument of that point.