Alternative History:Hinge moments

Following are a few possible Points of Departure. These represent specific events without prior certainty as to their resolution ("hinge moments") and avoid those which would require ABS (which is why the justification is included for each) or those which are based on alternate trends.

The ramifications are meant to represent various possibilities, not a group of related results.

These are posted to give ideas to others so feel free to contribute your own to this page.

Ancient World

 * Early Rome Destroyed
 * Justification : According to historians, there were two events which could have easily wiped out early Rome:
 * - In the early Fourth Century BCE, Celtic tribes invaded Rome and burned much of the town in retaliation for treaty-breaking. Legendarily, all of Rome was holed up in the Citadel, and a nighttime attack by the Celts was foiled only by Vesta's holy "watch geese".  One could imagine that a single Celt with some ideas on taking fortifications could have ended Rome.
 * - At the end of Hannibal's first push toward Rome he was actually within a day's march of an undefended Rome but turned aside due to misinformation about the Roman forces. Had he believed his Roman spy instead of his aides, he could have sacked Rome, leading to an eventual, permanent, Cathegenian victory.
 * Ramifications :
 * - It's hard to imagine what Western History would be like without Rome.
 * - No Christianity, since Jesus of Nazareth's movement was rebelling against Roman tyrrany in Judea.
 * - Jesus might've rebelled against Parthian oppresion or some other conqueror. Thus, Christianity would still exist, but its initial spread would be eastwards rather than westwards.  Europe might be rather late to Christianization, if it's Christinized at all, while the Middle East would be the center of Christianity.  No Islam in that case - Nik 08:57, 13 Jun 2005 (UTC)
 * Jesus is a reform movement into Judaism, he never opposed Roman power (not, at least, according to the ghospels). Of course, a POD affecting the rulers of Judea and Nazareth by 1st century BCE, would affect the existance of any historical character (assuming Jesus is) and how the movement would later spread (i.e. no Paul as Roman citizen).  -- Carlos Th
 * - Possibly the Celts would have formed a powerful kingdom under Vercingetorix?
 * - Possibly the Parthian Empire would have conquered Palestine, Egypt and the Near East?
 * - Maybe Zorastrianism would be a major world religion?


 * Athens Wins the Pelopenesian Wars
 * Justification : Athens was on the verge of a lasting victory in the Pelopenesian wars when they embroiled themselves in a war with Syracuse, which they prosecuted very badly and lost disasterously. If the Syracuse expedition had been confined to its original scope, or if it had been better led, the Athenian Empire would have ended the era supreme over all the Greeks.
 * Ramifications :
 * - A united Greece might not have fallen so easily to Philip of Macedon, or indeed fallen at all. This would have meant a very different career (and personality) for Alexander of Macedon.
 * - The Pelopenesian Wars were seen by many in the Eastern Mediterranean as a litmus test of democracy vs. ogliarchy.   Had Athens won, Athenian-style democracy might have caught on through much of the Middle East, and even the Middle Ages might have been different, with constitutional monarcy arising much earlier than it did.
 * - The collapse of Greek hegemony following the Spartan victory and Alexander's rise and fall cleared the way for Rome and Carthage. Had the Greeks held on Medditeranean dominance for even another century, one or both of these empires might have been quite different.
 * - Aristotle's career, and his teachings, would presumably have been substantially different.

Medieval Era

 * Henry II Conquers France
 * Justification : Henry II had already taken most of France, when he was killed by a chance arrow from the forces of his son, Richard in an ill-conceived 1189 revolt against his father. If Henry had been luckier or a slightly better father and husband to Eleanor, he might have lasted the remaining ten years necessary to find a pretext to conquer Louis' tiny remaining kingdom.
 * Ramifications :
 * - A united Angevin France and England would have been the most powerful kingdom in Europe by a wide margin and might have held an empire for centuries (see the works of Randal Garrett for an excellent example of this).
 * - The Hundred Years War and resulting social chaos is seen by many historians as a major contributor to the breakdown of the Feudal System and the rise of Capitalism. Without that war, might Feudalism have lasted another few centuries?
 * - The misrule of Henry's son, John Lackland, gave rise to the Magna Carta which was an precedent for constitutional governments everywhere, the British Parliament, and the American Revolution. With a strong Angevin Empire, constitutionalism and republican government might have remained confined to Italy for much longer.
 * - Without French help, it is unlikely that Scotland would ever have resisted England.
 * - A Kingdom of France and England would have had both the incentive and the cash to have financed the voyage of Italian expatriate Christopher Columbus.
 * - An Angevin Empire might have also become the Holy Roman Empire and moved the Holy See permanently to Avignon. This would have kept England a primarily Catholic country, yet paridoxically reduced the power of the Church.  Taken together, the Protestant Reformation might have been much smaller and less bloody.

French Revolution Era

 * Louis XVI manage to escape to Belgium
 * Justification : No one knew where he was until he got out of the coach and was seen by a civil servant who recognised him and warned the Gendarmes.
 * Ramifications :
 * - The king serves as a unifying symbol for the royalists who do not become fractioned and manage with foreign help to regain the throne. No napoleonic Era.
 * - He stays in exile until the restoration when he comes back to the throne.

Napoleonic Era

 * The french landing in ireland (1798) is a success
 * Justification : The only problem *here* was bad weather which damaged a few ships and dispersed the rest.
 * Ramifications :
 * - Ireland becomes one of the "sister republics" of france. Laters become a kingdom under one of Napoleon's siblings
 * - No clear resolution is achieved by either side. British involvement in the defence of ireland reduce its ressources during later napoleonic wars.
 * - Ireland becomes independent and declares neutrality during French Imperial era (claiming that they have a debt of gratitude to the republic, not the empire). Manage to make a large profit as a neutral trader. Becomes a world power in the late 19th or early 20th century.


 * Napoleon dies in battle
 * Justification : Napoleon frequently fought on the front lines. It's quite plausible that a lucky bullet could've struck him
 * Ramifications :
 * Depends one when he was killed. Some possibilities
 * - Napoleon's successor negotiates a peace treaty. As France is in a position of power, he is able to keep many of France's conquests and sattelite states.  Those satellites eventually break away.
 * Hmmmm ... I think that Imperial France would have collapsed very quickly without Napoleon after he had eliminated his rivals; his wars of conquest were to assuage the bankruptcy that France was in, after all. So if he had been killed, for example, in the invasion of Italy, I think France would have collapsed within weeks and been dismembered by the Austrians and Prussians.  However, in his early years he had a number of rivals for rulership of France, a couple of whom were very capable and might have made successful Emperors themselves had he been killed in, say, 1804. --TheFuzzy 17:19, 7 Jul 2005 (UTC)
 * - Britian came quite late to the land war, and the victory over Napoleon established the British Army as (for a while) the premier military in the world. Had the French Empire fallen earlier, the British Empire might have had considerably more competition from the Austrians and Prussians.
 * - The deposition of the Spanish Royals by Napoleon, which happened late in the war, did a considerable amount to encourage the collapse of the Spanish Empire and inspire revolution in South America. Had Napoleon died before 1809, Simon de Boliviar might not have been successful.
 * Other thoughts?


 * Napoleon leads the Republic of (South) America
 * Justification : in 1821 a bunch of aristocratic rebels, British and American adventurers had a plan to spring Napoleon from St. Helena to lead a war of revolutionary conquest and create a united South America. The main reason for their failure to do so was arriving in St. Helena 3 months after Napoleon died.  If Napoleon had not contracted stomach cancer (as is currently believed) South America might be very different.
 * Ramifications and Possibilities :
 * - The Republic of America survives Napoleon's death a few years later and becomes a power equal to the United States.
 * - Trans-American rivalry dominates politics in the Western Hemisphere for the next century. The Republic sends arms to exacerbate the devastation of the US Civil War, resulting in the collapse of North American power.
 * - By the 20th century, the Republic of America is a major world power. This results in a world dominated by South American culture instead of North American.
 * - Possibly the Catholic Church would scism, with a new Vatican in Latin America.

Victorian England

 * The pregnant Queen Victoria does not escape unscathed from the 29 May 1840 assassination attempt by John Oxford
 * Justification :
 * Victoria got lucky, plain and simple


 * Victoria is killed
 * Ramifications :
 * - Britain and Hanover are reunited.


 * Victoria survives, but dies givng birth to Princess Victoria
 * Ramifications :
 * - Princess Victoria (1840-1901) becomes Victoria II (r. 1840-1901) and gives her name to the Victorian era.
 * - Victoria II of Britain does not marry the future Kaiser Wilhelm I.


 * Victoria survives, but suffers wounds (a stillbirth?) that make her barren
 * Ramifications :
 * - Victoria's successor is a distant cousin, the pretender to the throne of Hanover.

American Civil War

 * Lincoln shot much earlier.
 * Justification :
 * It may be feasible for Lincoln to be shot "on the field".
 * Also there were 80 reported threats (assassination plots) against Lincoln's life, some more serious than others. Most notable:
 * - Lincoln snuck into Washington D.C. shortly after the election due to reports of assassination plots in Baltimore. If the plot was undiscovered and Lincoln remained in Baltimore, he may have been killed before he was inaugurated.
 * Ramifications :
 * - Entire character of Civil War and its aftermath is changed.


 * Lincoln not shot
 * Justification :
 * Conspiracy to kill Lincoln uncovered before it can advance
 * Ramifications :
 * Reconstruction goes very differently
 * Possible socialist leanings in Lincoln's second term?


 * Washington Seized
 * Justification : After the first Battle of Bull Run, the Confederate Army was within striking distance of a suddenly undefended Washington DC. Only a bout of political paralysis held them back, not realizing it was as close as they would get ever.  If President Davis had been more decisive, or his generals more willing to overrule him, the Civil War might have ended in only a couple of months, in favor of the South.
 * Ramifications :
 * - The Confederate states would have been, for at least a short time, a separate country.
 * - There would be no lasting North/South bitterness because so few people were killed.
 * - There was already a bitterness before the War. However, it probably would've faded over time. -- Nik 06:55, 10 Jul 2005 (UTC)
 * - If they remained separated for many years, the conflict might have become a trade war which the North would have won.
 * - More likely, I think, is a growing friendship between the two. -- Nik 06:55, 10 Jul 2005 (UTC)
 * - Even if the CS rejoined, state governments would probably be much stronger than they are now.
 * - In the CSA, most likely, in the US, however, I suspect there'd be even more centralization, quite possibly including an amendemtn or two intended to prevent a repeat of the short war. Perhaps Amendment 13 would've been something like "This Union is permament, and may not be dissolved by act of a state government", since the CSA's indepenence would've cemented secession as a right of the states.  No equivalents of OTL's 13th, 14th, and 15th amendements.  However, slavery wouldn't've lasted very long in either the USA or CSA.  By the 20th anniversary of the CSA's birth (1881), the US would probably be slave-free, and the CS might very well be too.
 * Secession of Texas (perhaps with Louisiana and Arkansas) from the CSA is quite possible, too.
 * The CSA would definitely be a strongly states-rights-oriented nation, and would be held back economically, probably becoming dependent upon the US for industrial products. Dissolution of the CSA into several nations, possibly one nation for each state, must be considered
 * Kentucky is an interesting question, as well. In OTL, Kentucky initially declared neutrality.  Where would they go after the war?  Staying with the US, or joining the CSA?
 * Maryland - would a Confederate victory cause them to bolt and join the CSA, too? In OTL, it was largely martial law that prevented it from joining the CSA, and as it was, they contributed a large number of troops to the Confederate cause, almost as many Marylanders as fought for the Union, in fact, despite conscription dragging people into the Union army!
 * With Maryland, and hence DC, in Confederate hands, where would the capital move too? Philadelphia?  Westerners might object to another Eastern capital.  Columbus, Ohio is a possibility, being central to most of the population at the time, the Trans-Mississippi still being fairly sparsely populated
 * The US, however, would remain a much weaker nation. Probably no Spanish-American War, for example.  Definitely no Alaska Purchase or Hawaii annexation.
 * The Republicans would be history, and with that, probably fewer, but larger, states in the West (compare the 1860 map with the 1870 map  - the Republicans had a good deal of support in the far west, and hence, carved up the territories into smaller entities to make way for more states, hence greater strength in the Senate and Electoral College.  The Dems might well reconsolidate western territories, and favor admitting them in larger pieces, in order to maintain Eastern strength
 * Who would've risen as the opposition party? Socialists, as Harry Turtledove suggested?  Some other populist movement? -- Nik 06:55, 10 Jul 2005 (UTC)
 * I see you like this thread idea, Nik.  If you start it, I'll contribute to it!  (After I get back from my trip, that is) --TheFuzzy 02:48, 11 Jul 2005 (UTC)

World War I

 * Germany finances WWI using long term bonds (or other instruments) instead of short term bonds.
 * Ramifications :
 * - Financially: war can last longer, and debt is much easier to deal with, hyperinflation does not occur.


 * Death of Adolf hitler during WWI.
 * Justification : he was badly wounded at least once
 * Ramifications :
 * - The weimar republic end up controled by The steel helmets (right wing but more conservative then fascistic and not particularly antisemitic).

Spanish civil war

 * General Sanjurjo arrive in spain and take control of the rebel forces.


 * Justification : He was prevented from doing so due to his accidental death during a plane crash while leaving exile in portugal.


 * Ramifications :
 * - Those close to him thought that, as the war bog down, he might have accepted a compromise peace treaty with the republicans.


 * Right wing politician Calvo Sotelo is not executed


 * Justification : He was killed in retaliation for the murder of a left-wing officer. He was not however the first target (which was Gil Robles) of the assassins who simply kidnapted and shot the first high ranking rightwinger they could find.


 * Ramifications :
 * - He was considered to be the senior civilian of the Movement's conspiracy and a popular figure of his on right. He might have prevented the military from obscuring the other factions which could have lead to an authoritarian but not totalitarian regime.


 * José Antonio Primo de Rivera is broken out of the prison at Alicante


 * Justification : the raid was well planed and backed by german help. Last minute changes ruined an escape that might have succeeded.


 * Ramifications :
 * - As one of the most charismatic leaders of the nationalists, he and his falange could have manage to gain control of the others. Under Primo de Rivera, spain would have had become something similar to fascist italy and might have well joined up the axis during WWII instead of adopting neutrality.

World War II

 * The attempt to assassinate Hitler on November 8th, 1939 succeeds.
 * Justification : Johann Georg Elser placed a large bomb in a column behind the speakers podium in preparation for Hitler's annual speech commemorating the failed putsch of 1923. The bomb went off, half the building was destroyed, 8 people were killed, and 65 wounded - but Hitler was uninjured because he had finished his speech early and left the building eight minutes earlier. If Elser had timed his explosion differently, Hitler would have been killed.
 * Ramifications : This is after Germany invaded Poland. Britain and France had already declared war on Germany but the real fighting was still in the future. With Hitler gone, all the big decision will be different and will depend on who becomes the next leader.


 * The assassination attempt on Hitler on July 20, 1944 is a success.
 * Justification : the plan was for a bomb (hidden in a satchel) to blow up next to hitler. Before the meeting however, a aide had moved the satchel in question under a chair at the other end of the table. When it blew up, the table (one of those monster made of hardwood) took the brunt of the blast, sparing hitler.
 * Ramifications :
 * - Germany sue for an end to the war.
 * - Germany sign a peace treaty with the allied countries minus russia.
 * - the government fracture into factions and this lead to a civil war.


 * France is occupied by the Allies after the normandy landing and treated in a manner similar to Italy.
 * Justification : a plan to do this had been drafted before the normandy landing. Only De gaulle's actions prevented its application
 * Ramifications :
 * - Resentment push it eventualy in the communist camp
 * - Various groups including maquisars, communists and former military under de Gaule keep up a guerilla warfare.

Cold War

 * Cuban Missile Crisis leads to World War Three
 * Justification: At this time the world came very close to a nuclear exchange OTL (some sources say the orders to launch a nuclear attack were revoked two minutes before such orders were no longer reversible).
 * Ramifications: Hundreds of nuclear explosions would reduce the industrial capacity of the USA, USSR and many other nations to about zero. Large scale long term environmental damage to the target nations and nations down wind.

First Gulf War

 * Saddam Hussain uses nerve gas against US troops during Persian Gulf War in 1989/90
 * Justification : Saddam Hussain had various chemical weapons at his disposal at this time including nerve gas. The scud missiles were proving to be too inaccurate for their payload of 500lb of explosives to be of much use. A chemical payload would not require as much accuracy.
 * Ramifications :
 * - If there were large US casualties in Dhahran or Riyadh, due to nerve gas, this could result in harsher terms at the end of the war, helping anti-Saddam insurgents. Or it could even cause the scope of the war to increase to "regime change". A Iraq War style conflict could result a decade earlier than OTL but with 500,000 US troops rather than the 150,000 seen OTL.