User blog comment:Ty Rezac/Superpowers/@comment-1630894-20120709204715

China needs to find some way to deal with an aging population bubble that could soon result in a larger retired force than workforce. The gender imbalance also could cause some troubles in the future. Finally, I doubt the current authoritarian regime will fall without severe troubles and maybe even a civil war. So it would take several decades for China to become a superpower.

Russia's sun has set, their economy is worsening, their government is corrupt and increasingly authoritarian, there is massive disatisfaction amongst the populace, micronationalism is rising, and they have demographics that aren't very good either. It will take a long time for Russia to become a superpower again.

The EU would need to kick most of Southern Europe out first, and find a way to balance a growing immigrant population vs. a growing anti-immigrant group. And watch their demographics as well. But then maybe.

India needs to find a way to reduce their population problems without causing a massive age bubble. Then they need to deal with the poverty and corruption problems. Probably take them as long as China. They also better hope they don't go to war with Pakistan and render the region a wasteland.

Brazil has poverty problems too, but if they got that worked out they could do well.

However, I don't see the US falling any time in the remote future, so it would probably remain a superpower, albeit no longer having as much influence as other nations rise.