User blog:LurkerLordB/Real-Life People born after a POD V2

OK, Red VS Blue pointed out several important facts last time, which basically came down to that it is almost a 50/50 chance of people being the same as OTL, with the chance of them being born significantly more deformed or exceptional than in real life (unless it is an inherited disorder) being very low. Therefore, I am going to use this 50/50 gender chance to determine the probability of someone being born if their conception would not be affected by the POD directly

Things to remember: So, to begin:
 * 1) This is for people whose conception is not going to be affected by a POD right yet. For example, in a timeline whose POD is about Japan, if Japan's relations with the west have not been altered yet, then this would apply.  However, if in that timeline Japan has a civil war where they didn't in real life, the casualties and disruption would make the chance of OTL people being born much lower.
 * 2) This does not apply to the very tiny percentage of people who have incredibly unlikely mutations.  This could include people who suffer from some sort of mental or physical disability that does not run in their family, as well as people who have exceptional and innate abilities in the mental or physical activities, when said things did not have any history of running in their family.   Since these events would be incredibly unlikely anyways, it would remain incredibly unlikely for this to occur.

The first generation born after the POD would have a 50% chance of being the same. It is immediately apparent that it is certainly plausible to use real-life people born 1 generation after the POD.

The second generation child faces an additional challenge. The chance of the man to be their father being male is 50% already. Compounded to this, their mother's gender is a 50% chance as well. People born two generations after the POD would thus have a 25% chance of their parents meeting. However, their gender as well is a coin flip, so they would have 50% of 25%, 12.5%. Low, but still certainly plausible

For the next generation, they would have 12.5% of a 12.5% chance of having their parents being capable to convieve them, a 1.5625% chance. Take 50% of that to get a 0.78125% chance of people being born 3 generations after a POD. A small chance, but of the billions of our species, not implausible for a large amount of OTL people to be born, certainly numbers greater than the amount of OTL people being used in any timeline here.

For the fourth generation, 0.78125% of 0.78125% is approx. 0.61% chance of their parents both matching. This gives them a 0.305% chance of being born. Still plausible due to our population.

For the fifth generation, 0.305% of 0.305%, a 0.093% of their parents matching exists. Halve that, and you get 0.0465% of existing. Still vaguely plausible, but increasingly unlikely.

The sixth generation has 0.0465% of 0.0465%, a mere 0.0022% chance of their parents meeting, with only a 0.0011% chance of existing. Using 7 billion as our population, this has only 77,000 humans being able to be born, still enough for a timeline, but increasingly unlikely.

It is the seventh generation that it starts to become implausible for OTL people to be born. 0.0011% of 0.0011%, only 0.00000121% chance of their parents to matching. Halve that to get 0.000000605% chance of being born. Only about 42 OTL people would be born in this situation,

The eighth generation is incredibly implausible to exist. 0.000000605% of 0.000000605% is a mere 3.66*10^-13% of their parents both being born. Divided in half is a miniscule 1.83*10^-13% chance of being born. The resulting number of real-life people being born under such a chance is a tiny fraction of one person, making it implausible for any real people to be born.

In conclusion, if an area is unnaffected by a POD, up to the sixth generation, the plausibility of real-life people being born is high. By the seventh generation, it becomes unlikely, but not near-impossible. Eight generations later, and it becomes ASB for real-life people to be born (not that anyone's timeline would ever be labelled ASB for using OTL people, that would be stupid).

Also, know that I do not consider a timeline inferior based on its usage of OTL people, if the choice is between using OTL people and being implausibl or not and restricting content, do what you wish. LurkerLordB (Talk) 00:08, August 15, 2012 (UTC)