2012 Republic of Superior Presidential Election (1983: Doomsday)

The 2012 Presidential Election in the Republic of Superior will be the eighth in its history. With the President declining to run, citing his incredibly poor showing in opinion polls, the race is considered to be wide-open. The fallout from the Saguenay War and the revelation that the government of Presidents Sarick and Newman actively supplied and aided the Lawrence Raiders will play a major role in the campaign.

Liberal Democratic Nomination

 * Congressman David Orazietti, Chippewa, 2008 VP Candidate, announced November 26th, 2010
 * Congressman Michael Lahti, Houghton, announced January 24th, 2011
 * Former Mayor Debbie Amaroso, Sault Ste Marie, 2000 VP Candidate, announced August 5th, 2011
 * Territorial Representative Michael A. Brown, Manitoulin, announced February 4th, 2011
 * Governor Frederick Cullen, Mackinaw announced August 13th, 2011
 * Senator Steve Lindberg, Marquette announced August 10th, 2011
 * Governor Jeffrey S. Crochet, Mackinac, 1984 VP Candidate, announced December 13th, 2010, withdrew August 14th, 2011

Still stinging from their defeat in 2008, the Liberal Democrats vowed that 2012 "would be their year." However, for 2009 and much of 2010, Conservative numbers stayed high, buoyed by the fighting in the east. Yet, as things took a turn for the worse, and Superioran forces were thrown back from Gaspe, so did the polling numbers improve. Accusations that the Republic had supplied and aided the Lawrence Raiders, while unproven at the time, hurt too. Even more so was the Treaty of Manchester that May, which while in theory a draw for the government, was viewed in many corners as a loss.

In late August, League of Nations investigators announced preliminary results of their investigation, as per the treaty: while they did have much work to do to determine who was ultimately responsible, they could definitely prove that the Superioran government had indeed been up to exactly what the rumors had said - something definitely against international law. And this presented opportunity for the Liberal Democrats, as they had been out of power the entire time, and even Secretary of State Feingold had no idea what they were up to, though it did hurt his standing slightly, leading him to decline to run.

By the end of the year, as more and more information was released by the investigators, Liberal Democratic numbers increased against the President. While not quick enough to impact the Congressional elections much, a few Conservatives did lose their seats - however, they did retain their super-majority, though barely. Shortly afterwards, the first candidates, Congressman Orazietti of Chippewa and Governor Crochet of Mackinac, announced their candidacy in late November and mid-December, followed by Congressman Lahti of Houghton and Territorial Representative Brown of Manitoulin in January and February, respectively.

The announcement on August 5th by President Newman - by now lightly implicated in the investigations, though, despite attempts by the opposition in Congress, unimpeachable in the Conservative-held Congress - that he would not be running again, citing his "health," changed the situation more, opening things up even further. Former Mayor Amaroso announced her candidacy later that day, though with little chance of it going anywhere. Within days, Senator Lindberg of Marquette announced his candidacy in Stowe, being quoted as saying "with the President no longer running, the time is now ripe for the scandalous Conservatives to go down."

On the 11th, the first debate amongst the candidates was held in Houghton. Much sparring occurred between Governor Crochet and Congressman Lahti throughout the debate over minor policy issues, with the others getting jabs in where possible. However, the winner of the debate, in the eyes of observers, was Territorial Representative Brown, and his more libertarian-style views, who managed to knock all the other candidates back down a peg.

The first major opinion poll of the candidates occurred on August 13th in Iron Mountain. They showed Congressman Orazietti in front with about 30% supporting him, followed by Congressman Lahti with 25%, Senator Lindberg with 15%, Territorial Representative Brown with 10%, and the remaining amount split between the other two announced candidates and various write-in votes. Across town, popular Governor Cullen of Mackinaw, long rumored to be entering the race, formally announced his candidacy. Within days, informal polls showed the governor ahead of Orazietti. Governor Crochet, with his abysmal performance in the poll, announced in St. Ignace on the 14th that he was withdrawing from the race.

Polling by the Sault Star on September 18th showed Governor Cullen leading over Senator Lindberg, 35% to 25%, and the other candidates ranging from fifteen to three percent. The Straw Poll in Baraga on September 22nd, however, had Senator Lindberg leading at thirty percent, closely followed by the Governor at twenty-five percent, and then Congressman Orazietti and Lahti, as well as Territorial Representative Brown at ten percent, and in last place Former Mayor Amaroso at five percent, with the remainder either choosing "none of the above" or "undecided."

The second and final debate between the candidates was held on October 11th, 2011, in Iron Mountain. In another raucous debate, Senator Lindberg and Governor Cullen - in a much more refreshed performance tonight - traded barbs through the evening. Congressman Orazietti and Representative Brown put in a good performance as well, drowning out both Lahti and Amaroso. Pundits consider Lindberg to have won the debate, though opinion polling continues to have Representative Brown thought of as the winner.

Polls conducted in the republic since the Liberal Democratic Debate on the 11th were published on the 16th, in the Sunday Edition of The Mining Journal of Marquette. The results indicated that Governor Cullen still had a slight lead of three percent over Senator Lindberg for the Liberal Democratic nomination, though Territorial Representative Brown has moved into third, only five percent back of Lindberg. Congressmen Lahti and Orazietti followed at eleven and seven percent, respectively, with Amaroso polling under five percent. The remainder were still undecided, however.

The final straw poll of the season was held on November 5th, 2011, in Manistique, Schoolcraft. The winner of the poll turned out to be Governor Cullen, with more than half of those polled voting for him - about fifty-two percent. Representative Brown came in second with a surprisingly strong showing - thirty percent. Congressman Orazietti and Senator Lindberg tied for third, at about six percent apiece, followed by Congressman Lahti at five percent, and the remainder going to write-ins and the other candidates.

Polling data gathered by the Menominee Herald-Leader during mid-November was published in its Sunday edition, on November 20th. Once again, Governor Cullen held the lead, with thirty-eight percent of those polled supporting him. Senator Lindberg, as expected, followed at a reduced twenty-three percent. But, his lead was surprisingly narrow - Representative Brown followed almost immediately behind, with twenty percent. Another ten percent went to Congressman Lahti, four percent to Congressman Orazietti, two percent to Former Mayor Amaroso, and the remainder went to write-in choices.

On December 1st, Governor Crochet called a press conference in St. Ignace. At the conference, he endorsed Senator Lindberg for the nomination.

National polling done for the Green Bay Press-Gazette over the week following the December 5th Conservative debate was published on December 11th, in their Sunday Edition. With the endorsement on the first, Senator Lindberg's support shot up from the last poll, with his support now totaling thirty percent, a single point back of Governor Cullen. Representative Brown's support increased as well, rising to twenty-two percent. Congressmen Lahti and Orazietti, along with Former Mayor Amaroso, remained at ten, four, and two percent, respectively. Only a single percentage went on record as being undecided.

The paper also had a poll conducted in the state of Dickinson, the site of the first primary. It indicated that at that point in time, Senator Lindberg held the lead in the state.

Currently, the first Liberal Democratic Primary is scheduled for January 5th, 2012, in the state of Dickinson, and the last one held on June 1st, 2012, in the Beaver Archipelago.

The convention will be held from September 3rd-6th, 2012, in Marquette, and hosted by Mayor John Kivela and Congressman Steven Wiig.

Conservative Nomination

 * Vice-President Horatio Weston, Ontonagon, announced August 8th, 2011
 * Senate Majority Leader Tom Casperson, Delta, announced August 10th, 2011
 * Congressman Dan Meyer, Gogebic, announced August 15th, 2011
 * Senator Peter Pettalia, Mackinaw, announced September 1st, 2011
 * Congressman Samuel Carey, Marquette, announced August 29th, 2011
 * Former Senator James Kelleher, Chippewa, 1992 VP Candidate, announced August 22nd, 2011
 * Territorial Representative Goeff Hansen, Michigan, announced August 29th, 2011
 * Congressman Matt Huuki, Houghton, announced August 10th, 2011

On August 5th, 2011, after opinion polls the previous day showed that he would fail to win re-election, badly, President Newman announced that he would not be seeking re-election, citing poor health. It is believed that even the potential Socialist candidates came ahead of him in the polling data, a first in the history of the republic, which is why he actually was not doing so.

The following weeks would be filled with candidacy announcements, as Conservatives began to vie for the now-vacant position, and smelling blood in the water, more Liberal Democrats and Socialists began to come forward. Vice-President Weston would be the first Conservative, on the 8th, to announce, saying "I believe in this country. We are at the dawn of a new age, and are in a position to be one of the brightest stars on its stage, and it is high time we took our place on it. As such, as of this moment, I am now running for the position of President of the Republic of Superior."

Senate Majority Leader Casperson would be next, blaming both Weston and Newman for the scandals and corruption - however, within hours, allegations would appear that as head of the senate, he was fully involved. That same day, the young Congressman Huuki, from Houghton announced his candidacy, saying that "Stowe needs a new, younger face, at the helm" - however, as barely old enough to be eligible to be elected, he has little to no chance of going anywhere.

In the weeks after that, other less vocal candidates - Meyer, Carey, Kelleher, Hansen and Pettalia - would file for it. While each would hold their own press conferences, none would be as attended as the earlier ones would be, nor were any more memorable quotes gathered by those in attendance.

The first debate between the candidates was held on September 14th, 2011, in Iron Mountain. Casperson and Weston spent most of the two-hour long debate ripping each other apart, with the other candidates usually joining in on the attacks on the Vice-President. Polling after the debate indicated that those in attendance thought that Weston had lost badly, looking "like a deer stuck in headlights," and that the Majority Leader had managed a narrow victory.

The first Conservative straw poll of the year was held on September 16th, 2011, in the town of Bessemer. Congressman Meyer, the hometown candidate, won the poll with forty-five percent. Vice President Weston came in second with twenty-nine percent, followed by Senate Majority Leader Casperson and Congressman Huuki at eight percent, with the remaining candidates splitting the remainder fairly evenly.

A poll published in the Sault Star on September 18th, the first national poll published after the debates, showed the tangled nature of the candidates, with not one topping fifteen percent. Weston and Casperson both topped the list at thirteen percent, followed by Kelleher and Pettalia at eight, Huuki and Carey at seven, Meyer at six, and Hansen at five. The remaining thirty-three percent went to "none of the above."

Polls conducted in the republic since the Liberal Democratic Debate on October 11th were published on October 16th, in the Sunday Edition of The Mining Journal of Marquette. Overall, the situation changed little. Majority Leader Casperson continued to hold a bare lead over Vice-President Weston, 15% to 14%. Immediately following them were Former Senator Kelleher at eleven percent - his experience resonating with voters, despite past issues from 1992 - Senator Pettalia at nine percent, Congressmen Carey and Huuki at six percent, and Congressman Meyer at five. Territorial Representative Hansen brought up the rear at three percent. The remainder was still undecided, however.

The second Straw Poll of the Conservative season was held in the state of Alger on October 18th. Results showed that Majority Leader Casperson was the victor with fifty-five percent of the vote, followed by former Senator Kelleher with fifteen percent, Congressman Huuki with eight, most of the other candidates with about five percent each, and then Territorial Representative Hansen at the back with two percent.

Polling done nationally by the Menominee Herald-Leader during mid-November, and published in their Sunday edition on November 20th, showed the situation just as muddled as ever. Casperson and Weston remained deadlocked at fifteen percent, followed by Kelleher and Pettalia at twelve percent each. Carey and Huuki followed with eight percent, tailed by Meyer at five. Representative Hansen, however, fell to just a single point. The remainder went to write-in candidates - rumor has it that most of these went to President Newman.

The final straw poll of the election season was held on November 30th, in Menominee. In a reflection of his increased poll results of late, former Senator Kelleher topped the poll with half of all the votes. Majority Leader Casperson followed with twenty percent, with Vice-President Weston following at twelve percent, and Congressman Huuki with ten. The remaining eight percent was split between the remaining four candidates.

The final debate before the primaries was held in Green Bay on December 5th. With his newly-perceived status as a potential front-runner, former Senator Kelleher came under attack from the other candidates. He managed it well, though it deflected his message. Most pundits agreed that the other candidates seemed to lose their messages as well in their attacks - only Congressman Meyer managed to stay somewhat above it, and was considered to have won the debate.

National polling done for the Green Bay Press-Gazette over the week following the debate was published in their Sunday Edition, on December 11th. As with every other poll, the Conservative picture remained murky. In a new development, ex-Senator Kelleher has risen to the top of the polling heap, with seventeen percent of those polled supporting him, in what is likely a sign of both his experience and dissociation with the current problems plaguing the Conservatives nationally. Casperson and Weston, unsurprisingly, followed at a reduced thirteen percent each. Senator Pettalia, and in an upwards move, the more libertarian-minded Congressman Meyer, were next at eleven percent. Hukki was next, with a continued eight percent, trailed closely by Congressman Carey with seven percent. Territorial Representative Hansen remained in last, with a slightly increased two percent. The remaining total went to write-in candidates - and in a new development, the pollsters totaled these up, and found that seventeen of that eighteen percent were for the President.

The paper also had a poll conducted in the state of Dickinson, the site of the first primary. It indicated that at that point in time, Vice-President Weston held the lead in the state.

The first Conservative Primary is scheduled for January 3rd, 2012, in the state of Dickinson, and the last one held is currently set on June 1st, 2012, in the Beaver Archipelago.

The convention will be held from August 27th-30th, 2012, in Crystal Falls, and hosted by Governor Lorraine Seratti.

Socialist Nomination

 * Senator Mike Prusi, Marquette, 2004 VP Candidate, announced May 22nd, 2011
 * Governor Tony Martin, Chippewa, 2008 Candidate, announced June 20th, 2011
 * Mayor Steve Butland, Sault Ste Marie, 2008 VP Candidate, announced March 26th, 2011
 * Congressman Arlen Tompkins, Escanaba, 1992 and 1996 VP Candidate, 2000 Candidate, announced August 24th, 2011
 * Territorial Governor Frank Koehn, Bayfield, announced April 22nd, 2011

After the mixed results in the 2008 elections, and the agreements made at the convention that year, the Socialist Primaries this time around promise to be interesting. With Senator Prusi promised support from the party leadership for at least the lower half of the ticket for his dropping out in 2008, the image has become even murkier. To add even more fuel, the investigation by the League of Nations has meant that their support is likely to increase even more.

Mayor Butland, hoping to capitalize on his national profile gained in 2008, was the first to announce in March of 2011. Territorial Governor Koehn of Bayfield was the next, on April 22nd, Earth Day - not a surprise, given that the Governor is often referred to as a "Green Socialist." Senator Prusi and Governor Martin would formally announce their candidacy in May and June, respectively. And after the announcement by the President that he would not run again, Congressman Tompkins announced that he would run as well. He is likely running in an effort to raise his image, hoping for support for something else.

As with 2008, informal polling showed Prusi and Martin both ahead of the rest of the pack, and very much neck-in-neck. Congressman Tompkins, having the support of the Delta branch of the party, is the only other candidate polling more than ten percent. A poll published by the Sault Star on September 18th had Prusi and Martin virtually tied at nearly thirty percent each, followed by Tompkins at fifteen, Butland at ten, Koehn at five, and "undecided" holding the rest.

Polls conducted in the republic since the Liberal Democratic Debate on October 11th were published on October 16th, in the Sunday Edition of The Mining Journal of Marquette. The picture for the Socialists remained unchanged. Governor Martin had a narrow lead over Senator Prusi, 39% to 37%. Of the rest, eight percent went to Congressman Tompkins, four to Territorial Governor Koehn, with two more going to Mayor Butland. The remainder were still undecided.

The first Socialist straw poll of the election season was held on October 26th, in the state of Mackinaw. As with other polls conducted in the Republic, it too showed Senator Prusi and Governor Martin to be more or less tied. Again, like the rest, Martin held a narrow lead, this time of half a percentage point, over Prusi, leading him 45.7% to 45.2%. Unlike the rest, however, Governor Koehn came in third place, with 5.3%, followed by Congressman Tompkins at 3.1%, and with Mayor Butland in the rear at 0.7%.

The first Socialist debate, held on November 13th in Escanaba, saw much back and forth between Prusi and Martin, with the other candidates relegated to the sidelines. Most observers agreed that no one candidate seemed to win it.

November 16th saw the second straw poll being held, in Marquette. As expected, Senator Prusi easily won it, gathering three quarters of the votes tallied. Most of the remainder of the votes went to Congressman Tompkins.

Polling data collected in the Republic during mid-November was published on November 20th in the Menominee Herald-Leader. In what was likely a temporary boost provided by the news of the concurrent straw poll, Senator Prusi and Governor Martin switched places, and gained a small amount of undecideds, now having 41% and 39%, respectively. Polling for the other three candidates remained almost static, with Mayor Butland falling to one percent and Congressman Tompkins rising to nine percent.

The final Socialist debate occurred on November 28th in Sault Ste. Marie. Perhaps buoyed by the recent polling data, Senator Prusi went onto the attack nearly from the beginning. However, in his attempt to appear to be dominating, he according to those polled came across as being slightly abusive, costing him the debate to the more calm Governor Martin.

Shortly afterwards, on November 29th, the last straw poll was held in state as well. As expected, Governor Martin placed well ahead of the other candidates, with eighty-one percent of the vote, in what could only be seen as a counter to the poll held in Marquette earlier in the month. The majority of the remainder split almost evenly between Governor Koehn, Mayor Butland, and Senator Prusi, with the remaining three percent going to Congressman Tompkins.

National polling done for the Green Bay Press-Gazette over the week following the December 5th Conservative debate was published in their Sunday Edition, on December 11th. Governor Martin and Senator Prusi were tied, again, at forty percent, and the remainder of the field remained static.

The paper also had a poll conducted in the Beaver Archipelago, the site of the first primary. It indicated that at that point in time, Senator Prusi held the lead in the state.

The first Socialist Primary is scheduled for February 6th, 2012, in the Beaver Archipelago, and the last one will be held on June 4th, 2012, in the state of Chippewa.

The convention will be held from July 6th-9th, 2012, in Sault Ste. Marie, and hosted by Congressman Peter Denley.

National Republican Nomination

 * Former Mayor Joe Fratesi, Sault Ste Marie, 2000 VP Candidate, 2004 and 2008 presidential candidate, announced November 22nd, 2010
 * Congressman Dan Benishek, Iron, 2004 VP candidate, announced June 2nd, 2011
 * Territorial Commissioner Frank Lasee, Kewaunee, 2008 VP candidate, announced June 8th, 2011

As with past years, the party holds that primaries are a waste of money, and refuses to hold any.

Fratesi, while announcing that he was running and filing the paperwork, has also stated that he will not attend the convention, and indeed, will stay home even if nominated. He seems to expect to be nominated in absentia. At this point, however, polls indicate that he has around ten percent of the party behind him, so his chances of getting the nomination are quite slim.

Congressman Benishek and Commissioner Lasee both held, in polling done by the party in early September, about forty-five percent of supporters each. So long as nothing happens between now and the convention, one of them will likely gain the nomination, and quite probably, the other will get the lower half of the ticket.

Polls conducted in the republic since the Liberal Democratic Debate on October 11th were published on October 16th, in the Sunday Edition of The Mining Journal of Marquette. The National Republican results remain unchanged, with Congressman Benishek holding a slight lead - 45% to 44% - over Territorial Commissioner Lasee. Former Mayor Fratesi got five percent, and the undecideds held the remainder.

Polling done in mid-November by the Menominee Herald-Leader, and published on November 20th, showed Benishek increasing his lead slightly, now holding forty-six percent to Lasee's forty-three percent. Fratesi held at five percent, and the remainder went to a wrtie-in candidate, suspected to largely be for Commissioner Weber.

National polling done for the Green Bay Press-Gazette over the week following the December 5th Conservative debate was published in their Sunday Edition, on December 11th. Benishek maintained his position, though with a slightly decreased lead, now of one percent over Commissioner Lasee. Fratesi's support dipped even lower, to three percent.

The convention will be held from April 23rd-26th, 2012, in Green Bay, and hosted by Territorial Commissioners Frank Lasee and Becky Weber.

Campaign, and the Election
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 * - bgcolor=#cccccc
 * Terrance Newman||Conservative||Keweenaw||183,290||44.67%||82||Horatio Weston||Ontonagon
 * Russ Feingold||Liberal Democrat||Iron||146,526||35.71%||29||David Orazietti||Chippewa
 * Tony Martin||Socialist||Chippewa||57,979||14.13%||29||Steve Butland||Chippewa
 * Joe Fratesi||National Republican||Chippewa||22,527||5.49%||0||Frank Lasee||Kewaunee
 * } --!>
 * Tony Martin||Socialist||Chippewa||57,979||14.13%||29||Steve Butland||Chippewa
 * Joe Fratesi||National Republican||Chippewa||22,527||5.49%||0||Frank Lasee||Kewaunee
 * } --!>
 * } --!>

