Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-10975360-20140530130134/@comment-10975360-20140611153310

well, a slight fuctuation, but still nothing very significant, what is significant is an 8 point labour lead turning into a 6 point tory lead.

i seriously doubt it, the labour lead in the final weeks was shaky, and major did run a brilliant campaign considering, major was also less ideological, and had wider public appeal, whereas thatcher was a "marmite politician", a segment (i would say about 35% of the electorate) loved her, and another segment (id say about 45% of the electorate) could not stand her. Major had the highest personal popularity of any Prime Minister since macmillan, that certainly helped gain him that vital 2-3% he needed in 1992.

indeed, but rarely is a sitting prime minister challenged for the leadership, and the prime minister's challenger gained a significant amount of support. The situation would be similar to that in australia after Keating's challenge to hawke in june 1991, Hawke's leadership was significantly weakened, and his poll ratings went from poor to very bad.

France did not have fixed elections, mitterand could have called a snap election, as de gaulle did in 1968, and chirac in 1997.

True, but as i said, there were no major national elections in 1991 to draw parallels to, although the tories would be in a better position in june 1991 than they were in october 1990, they would not be in a position to win a majority. As i said before, i think they would get around 37/38% of the vote, just ahead of labour, but not enough for a majority.

Also, if thatcher decided on an election in early march, called it in late march, by the time parliament had been dissolved it would be early may, so a march election would not be possible anyway. An april election at the earliest, but i think she would have waited until June so as not to appear oppurtunistic. She waited a year after the falklands. The last election was in June 1987, parliaments only usually last shorter than four years if there is a national emergency (like Feb and Oct 1974) or a government has a tiny majority (1951 and 1955).

Just calling an election in April 1991 would look oppurtunistic, and would be against parliamentary convention. June 1991 would be the perfect time.