2020 Commonwealth of Susquehanna National Elections (1983: Doomsday)

The 2020 elections in the Commonwealth of Susquehanna will be held June 9th, 2020. There will be elections for the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Senators, and Representatives, as well as local elections in Montour, Sullivan, Luzerne, and Wyoming Counties.

Primaries
The primaries occurred September 11th, 2019. All three major parties are expected to run multiple candidates to decide the candidates for various federal offices, including the gubernatorial seat. Unlike prior to Doomsday, primary elections are all held the same day nationally.

Republican Primary
With Lou Barletta ineligible to run, the party was forced to find a new candidate with the split of the Conservatives and libertarians after the 2015 elections and the strong turnout in 2017 and 2018, the party was seen as fairly well centered. Three individuals declared candidacy, which necessitated a primary election. The party had 25,116 registered members, and a turnout of 67.5%.


 * Lynda Schlegel Culver: Secretary of Veterans Affairs, as well as former Northumberland County Commissioner, and school board member for Northumberland County School Board. She declared candidacy in mid January, 2019.
 * Tim Holden: Current Lieutenant Governor, as well as former Schuylkill County Commissioner and borough councilman for Shenandoah. Surprising political analysts, he declared candidacy and launched an election campaign in early September, 2017. This gave him a significant lead on his opponents.
 * Kurt Masser: Secretary of Transportation and former Northumberland County Commissioner. An exploratory committee was launched in late August, 2018 and candidacy was declared in early February, 2019.

Democratic Primary
The Democratic Party held primaries to decide the gubernatorial candidate. They are seeking to capture the governorship for the first time since the mid 1990's. As of early 2018, two candidates have announced an intention to run for the position. The party had two candidates, requiring a primary. There were 21,527 registered Democrats at the primaries, with a participation rate of 72.9%.


 * Bob Casey Jr.: Chairman of the Public Defenders Office and previously a Representative from Wyoming County. He launched an exploratory committee in August of 2018, and declared candidacy in late January, 2019.
 * John Yudichak: Secretary of Infrastructure and Public Development, as well as having previously served as a Senator and Representative of Luzerne County, and county commissioner. He declared candidacy in mid-December, 2018.

Libertarian Primaries
The Libertarian Party held primaries to decide the gubernatorial candidate. The previous candidate, David Argall has declined to run again, decided two runs for governor having been enough. Three candidates have declared an intention to run, triggering a primary. There were 7,964 Libertarians registered at the primaries, with a participation rate of 75.1%.


 * Nathan Gerance: Current county commissioner of Schyulkill County and former mayor of Ringtown. He declared candidacy in early June, 2019.
 * Ryan McGlynn: A member of the borough council for Shickshinny. He declared candidacy in early December, 2018.
 * Ronald Powlus: a former quarterback for Bloomsburg University (1996-2000) and the Danville Steelers (2011-2012). He declared his candidacy in early July, 2019, only a few months before the primaries.

Conservative Primaries
The Conservative Party primaries were held to decide between two candidates, who would head the ticket. With the far right elements of the Republican Party and the Unionist Party merging, the primary was expected to be a telling sign as to the direction the party would move in. There are 3,266 Conservatives eligible to participate in the primaries, with a turnout of 58.6%.


 * Matthew Karchner: Secretary of the Department of Defense and former county commissioner of Columbia County. Announced his launch of an exploratory committee in early April of 2018. Officially announced his candidacy nearly a year later in late March, 2019.
 * Brian Hoffman: current Sullivan County Commissioner and former borough councilman of Sonestown. Declared his candidacy in mid-May, 2019.

Progressive Primaries
The Progressive Party will be holding primaries in the counties where the party is on the ballot, and caucuses in all other counties. Only one candidate has announced official candidacy, and it is unknown if she will see a challenger. There are 2,783 Progressives eligible to participate in the primaries, with a turnout of 85.8%%.
 * Maryanne Petrilla: Chairwoman of the Department of Education and former Berwick School District school board member. She declared her candidacy in early August, 2018 a few days after leaving the Democratic Party to join the Progressive Party.

Gubernatorial Election
The general election is scheduled for June 9th, 2020, with the Republican, Democratic, and Libertarian candidates having received ballot access. The Conservative and Progressive parties each have automatic access in approximately half the counties.

Senate Election
All 14 seats in the Senate are up for reelection. The candidates are elected in a top-two election, where the two candidates with the most votes win seats.

Susquehanna has looked to potentially shift the elections to function more similar to the former US Senate elections. However, this will require a constitutional amendment.

Prior to the 2020 elections, there were eight Republicans, four Democrats, and two Libertarians. The Republican Party needs to capture one more seat to gain a supermajority.

Political pundits have expected some changes in the composition of the Senate. At risk seats include both Senators from Luzerne County, who are both Democrats. Early polls show there is a 70% chance of at least one seat flipping, and a 45% chance of both seats flipping.

Additionally, there is a possibility of one seat in Sullivan County flipping from the Republican Party to the Conservative Party. With the rise of the Conservative Party in Sullivan County has put a seat at risk.

Representatives Election
All 34 House seats will be up for reelection in 2020. The previous elections took place in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Prior to the 2020 elections, the House was composed of 16 Republicans, ten Democrats, four Libertarians, two Conservatives, one Progressive, and one independent.

Political analysts have labeled several districts as toss-up. Overall, the Republican Party is expected to hold on to their majority. However, three Democratic seat, two Libertarian seats, one Progressive seat, and the one independent seat are all listed as at-risk for flipping to another party.

Debates
With the collapse of television, and limited resources as a means to campaign, candidates oftentimes utilize debates as a means to spread their message about the platform and goals of each candidate. The only positions which require debates are the governorship and lieutenant governorship, with all other seats having voluntary debates. Oftentimes, this means debates are only held in highly competitive districts.

Primary Debates
Each party set the requirements for candidates to qualify for debates. These may vary, with a range of signature, funding, or poll outcomes being utilized to a certain a qualification.

The Republican and Democratic parties each held three primary debates, with qualifying requirements becoming more stringent as they progress. Oftentimes this means by the last debate, the top two candidates are the only ones permitted to participate. The first and second debates were held in Bloomsburg and Hazleton, respectively, while the thirst rotates between cities. For 2020, the third location was held in Sunbury.

The Libertarian Party hosted two debates, with the first round permitting all candidates to participate and the second round, only the top three. The first debate was held in Shenandoah at the party national headquarters, while the second rotates between county level party headquarters. For 2020 the second debate was held in Danville.

The Conservative and Progressive parties hosted the fewest debates, each party only holding one if multiple candidates are running. If a single candidate is running, the parties do not hold debates, but replace them with town halls. Both the Conservative Party and Progressive Party rotates debate sites between the county or local level parties. For 2020 the Conservative debate was held in Bloomsburg and the Progressive town hall was held in West Hazleton.

General Election Debates
An independent advisory board sets the threshold for candidates during the general election. It is composed of three Republicans, three Democrats, one Libertarian, and two people from either a minor party or independent. Three debates are held, with site locations being similar to the layout of the Republican and Democratic parties debate system. The first two debates are held in Bloomsburg or Hazleton, rotating the debate position, while the third moves between the county seats of the remaining counties. For 2020, the third election will be held in Shenandoah.

Projections and Polls
Political analysis to at the various newspapers and radio stations have each held various polls and set up projections based on previous election performance, public opinion polling, public opinion on policy, and public appearance of the individual individual candidates.