Board Thread:Timeline Discussions/@comment-7559950-20130911012534/@comment-3428312-20150319010426

Revisiting Kursk again, to breathe new life into this thread. In my opening post suggestion, I talked about the Germans sticking to the original attack date when the Soviet defenses had yet to be developed in depth. This time, lets looking at it from another angle: Kursk is cancelled all together.

In April of 1943, Walther Model proposed to Hitler an idea of evacuating the Orel Bulge and basically going on the defensive (De Facto cancelling any operations against Kursk). Hitler at this time was, by most accounts, extremely willing to work with his Generals and actually heed advice. The fact that the launching of Citadel was due in part to his own nerves over the situation along with wanting to wait for the newer tanks to arrive confirms that this is not an impossible decision for Hitler to reach. Lets say he does, and the Orel Bulge is abandoned in favor of a new defensive line along the Desna River.

Not only does this shorten as well as straighten the Wehrmacht's line, it also allows for the creation of a mobile reserve in addition to anchoring a part of the aforementioned line along a natural barrier (The Desna). This action is accomplished by the end of April, with the new positions along with the rest of the new defensive lines being fortifed over May and most likely June. The Soviets will probably know about the overall strategic change the Germans are committing to by June, by will probably wait out on striking before the Axis defensives are completed in the hopes of Hitler reversing his decision and ordering an attack. They will have to strike sometime in July though, due to Stalin's pressures (He was pressing for an attack before Kursk in OTL) and the sheer fact they're running out of time before the fall weather sets in to turn everything into mud. Thus, the stage is set.

Even with this PoD, the Alt-Battle still takes place within the general vicincity of the OTL Kursk engagement(s) simply due to the factors already being present by the time of the PoD. The Soviets being their drive, and basically get bloodily stopped over several weeks of intense combat where they suffer dissportinate losses that intensely favor the Germans. Before someone cries ASB, look at the OTL losses that show the entrenched, defending Soviet Army taking roughly three to one losses against their German opposites. Now consider that in this ATL, the picture is reversed with the Germans on the defense while also having the added bonus of the Desna covering part of their lines in the engagement area. In short, the Soviets take an obscene amount of caualties for little in return.

As was mentioned earlier, Stalin was considering a peace along the lines of Brest-Litovsk before the victory at Kursk. In this ATL, he's confronted with a major and costly defeat at a time when the Soviets are begining to have the first signs of manpower troubles (Again, I posted the Soviet data earlier in this thread showing the declining conscription amounts). More than likely, the Soviets will seek an armstice which will be accepted on the condition of favorable terms by the Axis.

Freed of their Eastern obligations, the Wehrmacht can now be brought to use in strength elsewhere. Husky will be a failure, and that combined with the Soviet withdrawal will probably begin to weigh heavily on the West's strategic outlook. If some form of Operation Roundup is attempted, it is a bloody failure and will most likely result in an armstice soon after. If not, I expect an armstice to be signed anyway by the onset of winter in 1944. Japan still gets crushed like a bug, however.