Board Thread:Timeline Discussions/@comment-7559950-20130911012534/@comment-3428312-20170113043459

Lordganon wrote: Sort of what I was saying, but not really, MP.

Basically, the only way to get the Brits out would have been a peace treaty - impossible to starve them out.

As for the matter at hand...

Depends on how you define them "winning."

For instance, if you mean something like conquering the USSR? No way. Not happening short of ASB.

Some sort of treaty earlier in the war? not impossible.

But, again, depends how you define victory.

If you go by their "plans," however, victory is completely and utterly impossible. Quoting this to reignite interest.

With regards to starving England, an easy PoD for that is no Plan Z as well as having the Germans discover the issues with their torpedos sooner. That latter issue alone cost the Germans around 100 merchantmen kills, along with numerous capital ships during the first year or so of the war. The former included such vessels as the HMS Ark Royal (Aircraft carrier), HMS Nelson (Battleship), and HMS Warspite (Battleship, this one twice). IOTL, it took until 1943 for the Kriegsmarine to reach its 300 U-Boat goal and by that time the US was fully mobilized to outproduce any losses sustain. No disruptions due to Plan Z, and it's likely that by 1941 (Which incidently was a period that the Germans did manage to achieve their monthly tonnage goals in April, and came close in several other months) they will be in a position to starve out the Brits over the year.

To take a detour for a second on this point, HMS Nelson had Churchill himself onboard, so its entirely possible to remove him and enforce a Halifax peace. Further, HMS Warspite was the only modern Battleship in the Med until HMS Valiant entered the theater in August of 1940, so that gives the Italians a firm advantage in modern battleships for several months. Finally, the loss of HMS Ark Royal leaves a hole in the British carrier force which, meaning they might not have a carrier on hand to deal with Bismarck come early 1941.

With regards to the Soviet Union, an easy PoD concerns the 2nd SS Division "Das Reich". IOTL, the Soviet 32nd Rifle Division beat them by exactly one day to Borodino, allowing them to set up a defensive position that stopped the German advance. Just one day quicker advance, and the highway to Moscow is busted open. Further adding on to this, have Army Group North reduce their Tikhivin Operation to clearing the western bank of the Volkhov River, and Leningrad will also fall due to starvation within a matter of months.