War in Belarus (The More Things Changed)

The War in Belarus is an ongoing conflict involving protests and confrontations in Eastern Europe, in the Republic of Belarus.

Since September 2017, the conflict has claimed over a thousand lives. It is the second-deadliest ongoing conflict in Europe, following the resumed War in Donbass.

Background
Since 1994, Aleksandr Grigoryevich Lukashenko has served as the first and only President of the Republic of Belarus. Prior to his political career, Lukashenko worked as director of a state-owned agricultural farm and spent time with the Soviet Border Troops and the Soviet Army. He was the only deputy to vote against the independence of Belarus from the Soviet Union.

Lukashenko and other Belorussian officials are also the subject of sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States for human rights violations since 2006. He has often been referred to as "the last dictator in Europe."

Since February, demonstrators have filled the streets in Minsk and other cities in protest of a national tax imposed on the unemployed and underemployed, affecting nearly half a million Belorussians.

Minsk Uprising
On September 15th, a demonstration in Minsk attracted over 200,000 people, declaring their intention to march to the Presidential Palace. After facing opposition from the police, the protests turned violent. Six people were killed, with hundreds more injured or arrested. In response, protesters barricaded several streets with tires and furniture, defending their makeshift fortifications with Molotov cocktails and other improvised weapons.

A week later, on the 23rd, a portion of the 120th Guards Mechanised Brigade in Minsk defected. Flying the white-red-white flag of the protesters, they surrounded the Presidential Palace and the National Assembly. President Aleksandr Lukashenko fled the country, and issued an address to the nation from Moscow the following day, denouncing the protests as a coup.

Establishment of the Belorussian Democratic Assembly
The members of the National Assembly who had opposed the Lukashenko government declared their legitimacy as the representatives of the Belorussian people. Former diplomat and activist Andrej Sannikaŭ was chosen to serve as Chairman of the Transitional Government until elections could be held.

Russian-Supported Countercoup
On September 24th, the Russian Air Force launched airstrikes against elements of the Belorussian Armed Forces that had defected and imposed a no-fly zone across the country. By October 1st, Minsk was taken by Russian and pro-Lukasheno forces. Viktor Lukashenko, the eldest son of Aleksandr, was sworn in as President of Belarus.



While Minsk is currently the epicenter of the conflict, the BDA has headquartered their operations in the western city of Brest, near the Polish border.

Government of Viktor Lukashenko
In his first official act as President, Viktor Lukashenko appointed Colonel General Leonid Maltsev, who had served as Minister of Defence from from 1995–96 and 2001-09, as Prime Minister.

While much of Minsk is under control of government forces, Lukashenko is currently operating from the eastern city of Mogilev.

Establishment of the Belorussian Democratic Forces
On Deptember 26th, the Belorussian Democratic Forces was officially established by the BDA and the Sannikaŭ government, lead by Major-General Igor Rachkovsky, former head State Border Committee; Air Defence is currently handled by Major-General Dmitry Pakhmelkin.

Russia
Ins spite of recent strains between the Rusian-Belorussian relationship over the few years, Russia remains the largest and most influential ally of Belarus; they jointly participate in military drills together, and are both part of the Union State with Russia, as well as the Commonwealth of Independent States, both headquartered in Minsk.

Russia has pledged military, financial, and military assistance to the Lukashenko government. By December 2017, over 4,000 Russian troops were active in Belarus, with an additional 1,000 military personnel.

Shooting of Vladimir Putin
On the morning of December 28th, Russian President Vladamir Putin was shot at Khrabrovo Airport in Kaliningrad - twice in his abdomen and once in his neck; Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has taken office as Acting President. Putin died of his injuries the following day.

A suspect in the assassination was apprehended on December 30th in the town of Sovetsk, near the Lithuanian border. The assassin, identified as Ihar Vaytsiushkevich, is a Belorussian national.

The 2018 Russian presidential election is scheduled to take place on March 18th, 2018. Acting President Dmitry Medvedev, who previously served as President from 2008-2012, and Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu have stated their intentions to run for President.

The Medvedev administration has moved to step up Russian support for the Lukashenko government. By late January 2018, an estimated 5,600 Russian troops were active in Belarus, with an additional 1,200 military personnel in supporting capacities.

EU, NATO, and Western Countries
Following the countercoup, the Juncker Commission of the European Union, condemned Russia's involvement in Belarus. Lithuania invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, in which members can bring any issue of concern, especially related to the security of a member country, to the table for discussion within the North Atlantic Council. In addition, Lithuania has offered intelligence support to the Sannikaŭ government.

Many Western foreign ministers, such as U.S. Secretary of Gary Locke, Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs Chrystia Freeland, and Jean-Yves Le Drian, the French Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs, have moved to negotiate support for the Sannikaŭ government.