User blog comment:Saturn120/What if Operation Unthinkable Was Executed?/@comment-32656-20140429223912

Would not be the start of WWIII - as envisioned, it would have been a second half of WWII.

There were, in fact, two different Unthinkables - one, an offensive operation, which at best is not feasible, and the second, a defensive operation.

First one was more or less ludicrous. Would never have happened. No point in discussing it. Even if attempted, would have turned into a worse version of the second one.

Second one called for defensive operations, primarily in the event of a Soviet attack following US troops leaving to fight Japan.

A variation Of the second is far, far, far more likely.

With regards to naval forces, there is really no debate: Soviets lose. But, for them, it is really not so relevant. Land empire versus sea empire.

Air forces, the Allies do have the better one. May slightly outnumber the Soviets, but debatable.

Land is where we have the problem. That the Soviets vastly outnumber the Allies is obvious, and their capacity for replacements is higher.

Brits were already disbanding divisions to reinforce the others, and the Americans only had a single green division left in the US before they would be in the same boat. Canadians could send a few more, but given the political situation in Canada, that would be difficult. Germans had little desire to fight, and had suffered insane casualties by that point, so you have little help there - something like 15 divisions, at most, after a long cooling off period and screening process. The vast majority of reinforcements, if any, would be from France, Italy, the Low Countries, Norway, other barely freed areas in Europe or colonies. Mostly French and Italian. Add the divisions the Germans had of Cossacks, etc. May actually see troops from Latin America, here.

Tanks, artillery, and other machines, Soviets outnumber the Allies. And the tanks, better quality.

Yes, the minorities in the USSR and the Eastern Europeans would be willing to do such a thing. But you have to work on that, and that takes time. Would definitely embolden resistance, mind.

Soviets and Allies both had oil. No problems there for either side.

Most likely to break out shortly after Germans more or less defeated, through accident or otherwise.

War would progress rapidly, with Soviet advances in Europe. Romania and Bulgaria would do little, Yugoslavia likely neutral. Polish divisions, revolting or doing little.

Germany likely falls fast, at least in part. German troops that are left retreat west with Allies, or to Austria and towards Denmark. Allied air attacks blunt attacks, and the first nukes get used in Central Germany on the main pincers, probably more directed at their supplies.

Suspect the Allies manage to stop them somewhere around the Rhine and Alps, with it sticking out in the Netherlands. Mainland Denmark may or may not fall, but I suspect parts of it will hold out.

Japan still likely attacked by both sides, and emboldened by war breaking out between Allies and Soviets.

Towards the Middle East, you'll see attacks, though not really going anywhere.

Soviets would be unlikely to go after Nationalists in China.

Other fronts, Greece and Norway. Easily halted in northern Norway, probably stopped in Greece somewhere.

Bet on Turks getting involved.