Board Thread:Timeline Discussions/@comment-15167627-20130814133310/@comment-214961-20130815170125

Depends: does Germany have a second bomb, and if not how quickly could it make one? If the answer's "no and not quickly" and the Allies know it, they're going to hit Germany with every bloody thing they have to prevent a second bomb. Any option that was considered unthinkable will be on the table. And even if Germany did have another bomb, the western Allies may back off (until Little Boy is ready in May and then it's bye-bye Berlin/Ruhr Valley/Munich etc) but the Soviet Union won't: as long as Stalin's not in danger of being nuked, he won't give two shits.

So I'm seeing the immediate outcome being "more dead Germans". If Hitler is quickly assassinated by his remaining generals, they could sue for peace with the western Allies,  "we have another bomb honest" as the stick and "we'll give up X, Y, and Z" as the carrot, but again the west might jump back in the war once Little Boy's ready. (Better hope the Red Army doesn';t get hold of the German's "how to make a bomb" notes...!)