What Could Have Been

''The 1964 Presidential Election is considered by many an oddity, in that the polls all got it wrong. To be honest, they, the Johnson campaign, and even the Goldwater campaign could not have known that there was going to be an incredibly low turnout, that people were so confident Johnson was going to win, they simply turned off their televisions, their radios, and called it a night. And because of that train of thought, Goldwater by mere chance managed to make it into the Oval Office. President Goldwater. To me, it still makes me shudder to think of what he could possibly have done. Still, I was only a mere infant, and that is all in the past. Nothing can be changed now. However, it is interesting to ponder over what Lyndon Baines Johnson would have done in his stead. Clearly it would have been less radical and in many ways beneficial. This timeline goes over that possibility.''

The Presidential Election of 1964
Lyndon Baines Johnson is reelected President of the United States in a landslide, with Barry Goldwater only carrying the states of the Deep South (Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida), Idaho, and his home state of Arizona.

''Editor's Note: Of course, this is entirely based on the speculation that the people voted exactly based on the polls produced by Gallup. To many, it was a shocking surprise, even to Goldwater himself that state after state fell into his column. A state like Virginia was at least somewhat understandable, having conservative traditions. But others like Illinois? Ohio? New Hampshire? It sure was a rude awakening when Goldwater even carried Johnson's home state of Texas.''

Vietnam War
Johnson immediately began a rapid escalation of American forces in South Vietnam in the hopes of defeating the Communist Insurgency by the National Liberation Front. At the same time, he asked that bombing runs be made on the Ho Chi Minh Trail, the main supply line between the NLF and North Vietnam. The hope was that, with the destruction of the Ho Chi Minh Trail, the NLF would eventually be starved for supplies and forced to disperse, allowing South Vietnam some measure of stability, and redeployment of soldiers back to the states.

However, the Ho Chi Minh Trail proved to be more durable than previously thought. While they could extensively damage select targets, there were just TO MANY targets. The trail itself was made up of numerous roads, supply stations (many of which were underground), and guarded by anti-aircraft batteries and SAM missiles. All movement by Communist forces was made during the night so as to prevent detection by recon aircraft, making it all that more difficult to pinpoint the exact routes of the network. Even if one was found, it was promptly abandoned in favor of another that likely had been created in the previous weeks.

The ground war as a result did not go as planned. With the NLF still properly supplied through the Ho Chi Minh Trail, the American military found itself fighting an intense guerilla war. Calls to bomb North Vietnam's major cities (notably by Curtis LeMay) went unheeded by Lyndon Johnson, even when it became apparent that the bombing of the Ho Chi Minh trail was not having the intended effect.

Instead, in 1966, Johnson would create a strategy in which the ARVN (Army of the Republic of Vietnam) would begin to take over the American military's pacification role, while at the same time able to hold off the VPA (Vietnamese People's Army). By 1968, however, the ARVN was still too weak to handle the security of the nation, hundreds of thousands of American soldiers were still in Vietnam, and rising casualties were making the war increasingly unpopular.

''Editor's Note: It was already apparent that Lyndon Johnson had every intention of staying in Vietnam for the long term. However, especially from recently released documents, it is also apparent he meant to win the war from South Vietnam. How he was to do that cannot be as easily said. He was one of the foremost critics of Goldwater's expansion of the bombing campaign over most of North Vietnam, Hanoi and Hai Phong included, largely due to massive civilian casualties that would ultimately occur. Of course, this also proved more effective than the bombardment of the Ho Chi Minh trail, and the NLF found itself short of arms and supplies by the middle of 1965.''

''Still, Goldwater did what he obviously did not have to do; he decided to end Communism in Southeast Asia once and for all, and invaded North Vietnam in 1966, shortly after the effective collapse of the NLF as a major fighting force. Communist China did not take too kindly to the situation and, upon the request of Ho Chi Minh, sent in the PLA. When Goldwater threatened to "raze" Beijing unless China withdrew from North Vietnam, the Soviet Union stepped in and demanded that the United States withdraw from North Vietnam or lose West Berlin. Arguably, in those moments we came closer to Armageddon since the Cuban Missile Crisis.''

''However, this time, Washington "blinked". President Goldwater called for a meeting between representatives from all those parties involved (China, USSR, USA, North Vietnam, South Vietnam, etc.) in order to establish "a lasting peace in a region wrought with war". The basic result was a return to pre-war borders, though reperations from the American goverment to North Vietnam were sought (and denied). Most of the American military would be out of Southeast Asia by the end of 1968 as a result.''

Isreal and the Six-Day War
The Six-Day War began on June 5th, 1967, when the Israeli military aircraft bombed Egyptian, Jordanian, and Syrian military positions near the nation's borders, followed by a rapid advance into the said nations. Israel claimed that this was a defensive action, which can be supported by clear buildups by those three nations along Israel's borders over the last month. By June 11th, a ceasefire had been reached, with Israel in control of the Golan Heights, the West Bank, and the Sinai Peninsula. Johnson would only send military aid to Israel in increased amounts, but did not do much more in fear of antagonizing the Soviet Union.

''Editor's Note: Goldwater, of course, could not stand by and leave Israel unsupported. It had only been about two months after the signing of the peace treaty in Rome that ended the Paris that ended the Vietnam War when the Six-Day War had broken out. Upon Goldwater's orders, the 6th fleet was to be positioned in the Eastern Mediterranean in support of Israel. The Soviet Union balked, and sent most of its Black Sea fleet to tail the 6th fleet, and would do so until the end of the war. Thankfully, it never developed into a stand-off similar in nature to Vietnam.''

Domestic Policy
President Johnson had campaigned in 1964 on the basis of creating a "Great Society", with which to aid the realization of the American Dream. This included increased spending, reform, and expansion of the education system, the establishment of programs with the purpose of fighting poverty, and the reform of the healthcare system within the United States. However, despite Democratic control of Congress, many of Johnson's proposals were not able to be enacted due to conservative opposition. While much of the Great Society did succeed in getting passed, the Healthcare Bill would be voted down in the Senate, and healthcare reform would die with Republican pickups in the 1966 Midterm elections.

''Editor's Note: Goldwater, as we know, did not really care about the domestic scene until after the conclusion of the Vietnam War. Even then, his influence was merely to cut taxes by 30% (originally proposed 45%, but was rejected by the Democratic Senate) on both the income tax and taxes upon corporations. He also resisted any expansion of the government that he perceived contrary to the Constitution, resulting in his vehement opposition to proposed government controls on healthcare. Regardless, the economy appeared to be doing well, and the Republicans would champion the 1965 tax cuts as the cause come the 1968 elections.''

Civil Rights
By 1965, many Civil Rights groups were lobbying for a final, definitive, and forceful Federal law that would ensure their political rights. He appeared set to pass legislation to that effect, but it was only made stronger following the murder of Civil Rights worker Viola Liuzzo. Though it was opposed by many Southerners, public opinion swayed enough Congressmen to pass an Act that made it illegal for any reason to prevent another American citizen from exercising their right to the electoral franchise.

''Editor's Note: Unlike Lyndon Johnson, Goldwater did not pursue the passage of such a bill. To him, it was interference by the federal government in affairs that were clearly within the state's realm of responsibilities. However, he still pursued the murder trial of Viola Liuzzo personally, and can been somewhat expected that Johnson, while pushing a Civil Rights bill (and having introduced the Voting Rights Act through Senator Ralph Yarborough in OTL), would likely have done the same.''

Space Program
Under President Johnson, NASA carried out most of the goals that had been set out by the Kennedy Administration before; Under the Apollo Program, NASA was to land a man on the surface of the moon before the end of the decade. While the landing itself would not occur until 1969, the first manned flight around the moon took place during Apollo 8 in December of 1968.

''Editor's Note: With Lyndon Johnson's concentration almost exclusively on the Great Society and the War in Vietnam, he likely would not have concentrated much on a legacy that likely was going to belong to JFK. Would he cut it? No; it was much too popular among the public, and frankly, he somewhat supported it too. Barry Goldwater, on the other hand, made sure to increase NASA's budget significantly. The Apollo Program as a result was expanded in both scope and length, though the initial schedule itself was left largely unchanged.''

Democratic Party Primaries
Despite his approval ratings lingering around the forties, Lyndon Johnson only faced one true competitor in the race for the Democratic Party nomination, South Dakota Senator George McGovern. Endorsed by such men as Senators Robert Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy, George McGovern managed to win the majority of those primaries held that year. However, delegates to the Convention at the time were not usually earned through the primaries, but through smaller state conventions held by the local parties. Almost all of these supported Lyndon Johnson, and so at the convention, he was overwhelmingly nominated on the first ballot for a second term. Hubert Humphrey would also be receive the Vice Presidential nomination a second time.

''Editor’s Note: It can only be assumed that Lyndon Johnson would have quite easily won the nomination, even with low approval ratings. At the same time, however, we have to assume that an Anti-War segment of the Democratic Party would have developed, with the power to challenge the President. However, this would not have been an easy task, and higher profile candidates like RFK might support others like George McGovern or Eugene McCarthy in order not to lose political capital. As we know, in OTL, the major candidates had been Senators Robert F Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey, with the former coming out on top. Lyndon Johnson had considered running again in a rematch against Goldwater, but ultimately decided against it.''

Republican Party Primaries
The frontrunner had appeared by 1967 to have been Richard Nixon, but he declined to run after the publishing of polls showing him far behind Lyndon Johnson. The candidate then became George W. Romney, who had over the last year turned against the Vietnam War, and proposed a ceasefire and gradual withdrawal from South Vietnam. The only major challenger to George Romney was California Governor Ronald Reagan, a staunch conservative who won the support of the Southern delegations. However, outside of the South and California, Reagan’s influence was very limited, as in many cases he was compared to Barry Goldwater, a politician whom America had overwhelmingly rejected just four years past. Therefore, George Romney won quite easily on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention. He would pick John G. Tower as his running mate.

''Editor’s Note: Richard Nixon had for the most part had retired from public service, and likely would not have run had he not been certain he could attain the Presidency; therefore, the natural heir apparent would have been George Romney. Some would say Nelson Rockefeller, but he had already gone through an expensive and costly campaign in 1964, and his image needed time to heal before voter’s eyes. Ronald Reagan, though, would likely run as the conservative alternative to the moderate Romney. However, again, he would have appeared to many as a reincarnation of Barry Goldwater, and therefore unelectable by many Republicans. George Romney’s anti-war stance is in some ways fact, but by the time he had publicly claimed he was against the war it was winding down.''

''In OTL, Barry Goldwater was opposed by only a single candidate, New York Mayor John Lindsay. After being crushed in the New Hampshire primary, Lindsay promptly withdrew from the race and endorsed Goldwater. However, California Governor Ronald Reagan was nominated to replace William Miller as Vice President at the Republican National Convention.''

American Independent Party
Alabama Governor George Wallace, rather than directly challenge Lyndon Johnson in the Democratic primaries as he had in 1964, decided to run as a candidate under the newly created American Independent Party banner. Running on a platform of segregation, state’s rights, law and order, and absolute victory in Vietnam, it threatened to end Johnson’s chances of reelection.

''Editor’s Note: In 1964, George Wallace had planned to make his own run for the Presidency as an Independent, but decided against it when Goldwater had won the nomination. It can only be assumed that if George Romney won the nomination in 1968, with Johnson running on the Democratic Party ticket, he would have gone ahead with the same plan four years later. Of course, in reality, George Wallace endorsed Goldwater in his reelection bid, and actively campaigned for him across the South.''

General Election
Lyndon Johnson had to deal with an insurrection within his own party among the southern conservatives, while at the same time dealing with anti-war elements that defected to George Romney under the “Democrats for Romney” banner. However, a major dispute eventually came up over Romney’s eligibility to run for the Presidency, specifically the fact that he had been born in Mexico during the short span of time his parents resided there. When the case came before the courts, it was decided that Romney was indeed not naturalized citizens for this reason, but those who were born on American soil, including territories and military bases, were to be considered thus.

The chaos was almost immediate. Major leaders within the Republican Party met together and ultimately decided that the nomination should be transferred to John Tower. Ronald Reagan lobbied to be given the Vice Presidential nomination, but his was rejected, but a narrow margin and despite Tower’s support, in favor of Oregon Senator Mark Hatfield.

For many, this produced a situation in which all the major candidates were for the War in Vietnam, and therefore there was no reason to pay attention to the election itself. George McGovern would be pressured to run as a Progressive Democrat; however, though he might disagree with President Johnson’s positions on the Vietnam War, he preferred Lyndon Johnson in the Oval Office over John Tower or George Wallace.

Election Day would find a relatively depressed turnout, with a significant number of write in votes for the former Republican candidate, George Romney. Lyndon Johnson would narrowly win reelection to the Presidency. George Wallace would hurt John Tower more than Johnson, both being conservative southerners; while Wallace himself would only win the Old Confederacy (Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina), he would flip enough Tower states to Johnson to prevent the election from going to the House.

''Editor’s Note: George Romney’s issue of either being a natural citizen, and therefore eligible for the Presidency, has never actually been properly dealt with, even during his run for the Republican nomination in 1972. However, it can be assumed that the Supreme Court, had it been forced to rule on the issue, would say he was not a natural-born American, since he was indeed born in Mexico. I am not sure whether Ronald Reagan would then have been able to take the nomination away from Tower, but the fight itself likely would have been nasty.''

''Lyndon Johnson would have in all likelihood have won reelection, even if by a narrow margin. John Tower and George Wallace both appealed to conservatives, and for the most part split the vote in many states that otherwise would have gone to John Tower. Would Wallace’s coalition have lasted past this election? If it was a collection of ideas, yes. However, it likely would have been also a coalition based on his personality, and therefore liable to fracture unless he was the one leading it.''

''As we know, the election here was arguably just as close, with Kennedy claiming that Goldwater almost brought Armageddon upon us just so some he could put another feather in his hat. To an extent, Kennedy had a point; however, Goldwater simply countered it with the results of the Paris Conference, and the growing American economy. Even with a relatively high turnout, Barry managed to eke out a win, in no small part aided by Ronald Reagan’s California.''

Vietnam War
The Vietnam War had not been going well, and despite attempts to properly train the ARVN, the South Vietnamese military was demoralized from successive military defeats. The government in Saigon by the beginning of 1969 was still struggling to set up a working Democratic system, having gone through several military leaders, juntas, etc. General Westmoreland wanted to abandon the plan of making South Vietnam self-sufficient, favoring one in which the American military personally destroyed the NLF for them, and then withdrew from the country. However, Johnson would not budge, and things did not get much better.

By 1970 there were over 800,000 American soldiers in South Vietnam, most nothing more than conscripts having been given substandard training. Back at home, the war was growing increasingly unpopular, with Johnson’s approval rating falling into the twenties. Lyndon Johnson himself had grown tired of the conflict, and despite General Westmoreland’s pleas, refused to send additional reinforcements.

However, developments in South Vietnam seemed to be turning out for the better. With the force of the American military, a Democratic system not much unlike that of France was set up in Saigon, replacing the successive military governments that had existed over the last decade. Elections were held in 1971, resulting in a Liberal-Communist Coalition government rising to power. Westmoreland suggested that the election results be annulled, but Lyndon Johnson, with the support of Hubert Humphrey, stated that they should stand, even if it were less than desirable.

In Paris, a final peace treaty was signed between North Vietnam and South Vietnam in 1972. The borders were to remain the same, but South Vietnam would in 1974 hold a vote, upon which it would decide if it wanted to remain independent, or unify with the North. After the treaty was finalized, the American military would begin a rapid pull-out and be out of the country within six months.

''Editor’s Note: Lyndon Johnson was known to be stubborn, and likely would have stood with his initial decision had he made one; in this case, trying to pass the war effort onto the shoulders of the South Vietnamese. However, it is likely that he would have grown tired of the war. With no end in sight, and the ARVN failing to fight effectively without American support, the Democratic Party would have lost many seats in the 1970 midterm elections.''

''The major point is that Johnson would have at that point been desperate to find a way to extract the United States from Vietnam, and would likely have risked significant political capital to do so. That he would have had the American military at gun point aid the creation of a Democratic regime in the South is not that far out of consideration; it had been suggested during the early days of the war during Goldwater’s Presidency.''

''It is also not out of the realm of possibility that the communists would have emerged as one of the major parties, but that is only with the assumption that Lyndon Johnson cared for stability over regional dominance. The NLF in this case would still have been effective, both as a military force and as a political force, though the exact extent and nature of its power cannot be accurately measured.''

''The ultimate question then is, if put to a referendum, would South Vietnam have unified with North Vietnam? To be honest, it probably was not all the likely. Still, it is food for thought.''

Domestic Policies
In the opinion of many, the Johnson administration did not have a domestic agenda throughout the second term; the war in Vietnam simply took too much of his attention, and he spent more and more time with generals, intelligence officers, and diplomats, rather than members of Congress. When the Republicans took over both Houses during the 1970 midterm elections, any chance of further Great Society programs getting passed fluttered away; in many cases, conservatives sought to cut the budgets of programs they saw as useless, expensive, or unconstitutional. Lyndon Johnson, however, would not have it, and viciously defended the Great Society, vetoing any budget that put deep spending cuts in any of the programs he viewed as necessary. The resulting gridlock between Congress and the President did not do much to improve Johnson’s image with the public, and there was a fear that funding to the troops in Vietnam would be cut. A compromise would finally be reached were the budgets of most Great Society programs would be scaled back slightly. In return, Johnson would not veto a ten percent tax cut that was about to be passed through Congress.

''Editor’s Note: With the Conservative Coalition in full force, supposed Republican pickups in 1970, and higher concentration winning the War in Vietnam, it is highly unlikely that Johnson would have had any king of domestic agenda, or at least one that would be effective. The conservatives would try to repeal parts of the Great Society, and being President Johnson’s legacy, he would try to defend it any way he could.''

''President Goldwater’s domestic agenda was for the most part just as small. It largely consisted of downsizing the government, and giving the state’s more responsibility of their own local affairs. He was moderately successful in this regard, with the Democratic Congress preventing more radical steps at decentralization, despite significant Republican pickups in 1970.''

Space Race
On July 20th, 1969, the United States sent three astronauts to the moon, two of whom descended to the lunar surface. Buzz Aldrin became the first human being to walk upon a foreign surface, and the first words upon its surface being:

''“…..let all of mankind know………it has now made its first steps into the heavens beyond. That today…….not Americans…....or Russians……claim the moon for their own…….but the citizens of the human race. On this day…….we are one people……out of many…..”''

They would be picked up by the USS Hornet after their splash landing in the Pacific Ocean upon their return. However, after this point, the Apollo Program would begin a decline. With funds being diverted to finding an end to the Vietnam War, and both public and congressional support of the Apollo Program ending, Johnson would not push for its continuation; JFK’s legacy of landing an American on the moon had already been accomplished, and he had little to no interest on expanding it. Stuart Roosa would become the last member of the Apollo Program to set foot on the moon during Apollo 20.

''Editor's Note: It is not all that far of a stretch to believe that Johnson, having most of his concentration on achieving victory in the Vietnam War, would have given half-hearted support to the Apollo Program, something even he believed was more the legacy of John Kennedy rather than himself. At the same time, the American public and Congress both grew tired of the lunar landings after initial excitement with Apollo missions 11 and 12, and just as historically done, would likely have given difficulty in expanding NASA’s goals for space exploration.''

''In many cases, President Goldwater’s constant support and earlier budget increases for NASA are credited with having saved the later programs from being forced into cancelation. When a temporary lunar outpost was created in 1977, support began to return. A manned fly-by of Venus also aided in this return of overall support, with James A. Lovell and his two crew members becoming the first men to visit another planet.''

Indo-Pakistani War 1971
Historically, American foreign policy became increasingly allied with Pakistan, whom had since its independence opened a pro-western foreign policy, while India had become more closely associated with the Soviet Union, despite its supposed non-aligned policy. However, President Johnson became more concerned about America’s position in supporting a dictatorship, especially when stories of human rights abuses came out. As a result, Johnson became to orient American policy more in support of India then Pakistan.

However, when war broke out in 1971 after Pakistan conducted aerial bombardment of Indian airfields, the United States decided to remain for the most part neutral, though giving diplomatic and domestic aid to India. The war ended with East Pakistan becoming the independent nation of Bangladesh, and much of Pakistani-administered Kashmir coming under Indian occupation.

''With the way the Vietnam War was proceeding under President Johnson, it can be assumed that he was less likely to be supportive of dictatorships, especially those that did not properly take care of their people. Goldwater, on the other hand, did not care so much one way or the other. To him, India was on the path to communism, and he did his best to make sure that India was properly contained (though this did not go as far as diplomatic communications with the People’s Republic of China. Despite the level of support Goldwater gave to Pakistan, East Pakistan was lost; however, this was in part compensated by Pakistani gains in Kashmir and other areas along the Pakistani-Indian border.''

Republican Primaries
A Draft-Nixon movement came about, but it failed to gain much more than minor support when Richard Nixon himself declared that he would not, under any circumstances, accept the Republican nomination for President. Instead, the main contenders ended up being George Romney, the Governor of Michigan, Ronald Reagan, the Governor of California, and Nelson Rockefeller, the Governor of New York. Each represented its own wing of the Republican Party, but there was trouble from the onset. There was some question about George Romney’s citizenship, but more of the media’s attention was directed at his religious beliefs, George Romney was a Mormon. Even when he dispelled the issue in a well-received speech, he failed to gain any traction against Reagan. With him and Rockefeller fighting for the Republican moderates, Ronald Reagan won the majority of the primaries by default, despite his apparent hawkishness, and conservative views often compared with Barry Goldwater.

''This is more or less what happened in OTL. However, Vice President Reagan won the primaries for the most part overwhelmingly, and was easily nominated at the convention. Here, we have to assume that he would have been viewed in a somewhat more negative light, or at least the more moderate wing would be cautious of him. His charisma, however, would likely have won them over at the convention, something that Goldwater, Romney, and Rockefeller never had, at least to Reagan’s ability.''

Democratic Primaries
The Democratic establishment hoped to put Hubert Humphrey forward as the Democratic Party nominee, but faced a major opponent in the form of New York Senator Robert Kennedy, who had the support of George McGovern and Eugene McCarthy. Edward Kennedy had wanted to run, but bowed out when he was convinced his brother had a better chance at defeating Humphrey in the primaries. George Wallace also entered, but more to control the southern delegations at the convention, and hoped to make the Democratic primary more sympathetic to Southern political views. Shirley Chisholm also notably began a run, but would eventually withdraw and endorse Hubert Humphrey.

The primaries themselves were a mess. Kennedy won virtually all the primaries, but Hubert Humphrey managed to carry all of the conventions outside of the South (the majority of delegates were elected by party bosses that controlled the state parties in state conventions). When the delegates arrived, none of the candidates were near a majority, though Humphrey had a narrow lead. The eventual result was rather surprising, unexpected, and considered pure chance. Edmund Muskie, a delegate from the state and Senator from the state of Maine, was nominated as a compromise candidate three ballots after he was introduced (On the 38th ballot). While Humphrey and Kennedy endorsed him (with RFK becoming the Vice Presidential nominee), Wallace stormed out of the convention with his delegates (having failed to change any part of the Democratic Party platform) and endorsed the Republican nominee, Ronald Reagan.

''Because RFK had not been the nominee, or rather had not ran at all in 1968, he likely would have run in 1972, though the Democratic Party’s chances were dimming. Ted Kennedy had run in OTL, but he likely would not have run against his brother, and neither would his friends George McGovern or Eugene McCarthy. George Wallace had made an attempt at changing the Democratic Party in OTL, but found just as little success, and ended up spending more of his time ensuring that Reagan would be able to count upon the South for support.''

''In regards to Edmund Muskie’s surprise victory, he was a respected politician from a swing state (though of little electoral worth), and was viewed as a fresher face among the already dirtied Democratic Party field. There was at a time a Draft Muskie movement during the 1972 primaries, and support at the convention for his candidacy, though it was made moot by Ted Kennedy’s overwhelming nomination (and also his own reluctance to actually become the Commander-in-Chief). However, with the balloting process having gone on as long as proposed here, and no winner in sight, he may have viewed his candidacy as the only way the Democratic Party could remain united. Of course, at the same time, we can propose about fifteen other politicians for the same reason, but we will remain with Muskie.''