Timeline 1424-1500 (Zheng China)

Heaven's Judgment
On September 7, 1424, Zhu Gaoxi is crowned the Hongxi Emperor. His first order is to cease the voyages of the Treasure Ships and let them rot, despite the pleas of the court eunuchs. That night, a strange phenomena (most likely ball lightning) strikes the Emperor's quarters and sets it aflame. The Emperor, his Empress and virtually all his sons, perish in the flames, alongside key Confucian scholars.

The next day, Zhu Gaoxu, the Emperor's half-brother, is coronated, as the Tienfu Emperor. Seeing the fire as Heaven's judgment, he overrides his brother's first order and contemplates holding on to the fleet before making his decision, trying to keep as many options as possible.

A Troubled Empire
In 1424, China was in trouble. Her treasury had been strained to the limit due to the Yongle Emperor's nigh insatiable ambition and insecurity. Her armies were stretched to the breaking point defending an extensive border with the Mongols as well as a guerrilla campaign in Vietnam. Thanks to floods, famine, and low funding, her people were weak, exhausted, and losing faith in their Emperor. To make matters worse, the royal court was polarized between the eunuchs and the Confucians, with neither side terribly interested in cooperating with one another.

The Tienfu Emperor had to find a solution and quickly, though he had but two solutions: cut spending and raise revenue, neither of which would be easy. He started by slowing the construction of the new capital at Beijing, maintaining it as a key military outpost for the moment. He also began peace talks with the Vietnamese, asking to recognize the border if he withdrew his troops and recognized her independence. To encourage farming in the fertile Yangtze River Delta, he lowered taxes on farmers, allowing them to return to their farms.

However, he still had two major financial drains: the northern frontier and the treasure fleets. While the Mongols were not as great a threat as they were before, they launched incessant raids that required large armies to maintain. Conquering them was not an option as the Chinese armies were comprised mostly of infantry, and the wide open steppe gave the Mongols virtually infinite space to retreat into. Occupying the steppe would have broken the treasury all-together.

The Treasure Fleets, on the other hand, was a more complicated matter. While no one disagreed that they were a heavy drain, neither faction in the court could agree with what to do with them. The Confucians, seeing them as a symbol of the eunuchs and their excessive power, wanted to sink them, but the memory of the previous Emperor and his fate kept them at bay. The Emperor decided to use them to conduct trade, so he planned to dispatch them again, albeit on a smaller, much more practical scale. For that purpose, the legendary Treasure ships would not be going, nor would the fleet be dispatched for several years until China could accumulate enough products for trade.

The New Voyages
By January 7th, 1428, the fleet, reorganized and filled with the best of China's produce, set sail for Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan, Zheng He in command once more. He had been selected for his prior experience as a commander and a diplomat.

Upon arrival in Indonesia, the fleet splits and heads for the various islands and ports, with the majority heading for Malacca, both to trade and to recuperate for the long journey ahead. As the fleet head west to India and Persia, they gather information on the political and financial situation ahead. Knowing that profit increased with distance and of Europe's desire for spice and silk, they decide to try and deliver ships straight to Europe within a few voyages when they return.

Within a year and a half, the fleet returned to China, rich with money and information, especially the Europeans' desire for spice and silk. Intrigued by the prospects of having a direct line to Europe, but wary of the risks, the Emperor decides to send a small fleet of ships to sail down the African coast to scout the area ahead. If the journey could be completed safely, then the fleet would explore it further. If not, then they would settle for trading through Egypt and Arabia, a much safer but less profitable route.

On September 16th, 1430, the next voyage was launched, with Zheng He's subordinate, Wang Jinghong, in command of the majority of the fleet, while Zheng He and ten ships, comprised of four war-junks, two supply ships, two patrol ships, an equine ship (converted to carry repair materials) and one water tanker, set sail south along the East African coast. As their mission of exploration instead of trade, they did not carry much trade goods, save a few for dealing with locals. Before departing down the coast, they gathered information from Arab traders and Swahili fishermen, asking about what lay ahead. Unfortunately, all they heard were rumors of something called "Zimbabwe" though these were never substantiated.

As they travelled down the coast, they took careful note of everything they saw, planning and preparing for potential future voyages. About seven weeks into their journey down the coast, a storm occurred that forced the fleet to take shelter in a bay that managed to shelter them from the worst of the storm, though they still suffered some damage. Grateful for their escape, they named the bay " Tiān fēi jiǎ  " (天妃岬 literally "Cape of Tianfei") and they set about for repairs.

As they made the repairs, they again took careful notes of the lay of the land, including the resources and the resident people, with whom they shared an uneasy but peaceful coexistence for the time being. After a few weeks, the patrol ships were sent out to scout ahead. They returned within five weeks, with detailed reports of the coast to the north and west. Chief among their reports were strong currents heading northward toward a thick jungle, which then turn westward into a large ocean, though no cities or large ships in sight. This meant that if they ran into trouble, they would have to rely on their own resources, which were stretched thin as they were. Even if they avoided having any accidents, the counteracting currents would mean that travelling back would be much more difficult and more dangerous.

After taking on supplies, Zheng He faced a difficult decision: continue north and possibly lose the fleet and the knowledge they had obtained, or turn south to return home and organize another expedition, one with ships better designed for these conditions.

Opportunities in India
Meanwhile, Chinese merchants in northwest India discovered not only great profit in trade but also an opportunity to form, or at least begin, a Chinese commercial presence, which would ensure greater security for China's interests in the sea-based trade routes, increasing profits but it would require the support of the court as well as the merchants. It would be expensive to build, but it would provide a shortcut for Chinese ships to carry goods and money across the Indian Ocean, increasing direct access to trade sites and increasing their average profits. This would be a topic of intense debate in the court. While the merchants and the eunuchs were in full support of such a venture, the Confucians, fearing the growing power of the merchants, staunchly opposed the notion. They argued, however, using historical precedent in India, which was the antithesis of China: short periods of stability in a continuum of violence and instability. Any attempts to establish a commercial presence, they argued, would be jeopardized when the next dynasty took over. This meant that China, regardless of her intentions, would get entangled in Indian politics to protect her trade interests, a notion that did not sit well with most Chinese. Nevertheless, the debate continued as the merchants argued that no one would want to jeopardize the lucrative trade with China or they would lose profits as well. The Emperor decided to investigate the matter further but would not take immediate action either way.

The Return Home
Zheng He, deciding prudence was the better course, turned his ships eastward and began the long journey home. Before hand, he left a tribute, a trilingual stele, commemorating the Emperor and Tienfei for their voyages and their arrival at the bay, written in Mandarin, Tamil and Persian. On March 5th, 1431, they departed for the north, though due to the counteracting currents, they made significantly slower progress, taking up to seventeen weeks to navigate their way north to the Swahili coast, taking time to gather supplies and information. They arrived at the Somali coast on July 10th, 1431.

Once on the Somali coast, they stopped for supplies and repairs, as well as information asking the Arab traders about the ocean beyond Africa. While the Arabs were the world's foremost traders, trading with virtually everyone, they had no information on the ocean beyond Africa, frustrating Zheng He to no end. They did, however, provide more detailed maps of the Mediterranean Sea than the Chinese already had. Realizing that he would have to go in himself, he went over the potential arguments he would face in the court as he returned to China.

When Zheng He returned to Nanjing in October 31, 1431, he reported his findings to the royal court. As expected, the court was divided on how to react. While some relished the prospects for greater trade, most, including eunuchs and Confucians alike, balked at the idea of rounding the bay, fearing it was the edge of the world, one of the few instances of agreement between the two factions. Only a handful were interested in the idea of studying the ocean further, arguing that maybe the world was spherical not flat as conventional Chinese wisdom said.

In the end, the Emperor, while desiring greater exploration in the hopes of expanded trade, managed to convince the court to hold off making the decision, though it was only stalling for time.

Tensions in the Court
Over the next twenty-five years, as China slowly built up her treasury through trade, she underwent a slow change in her economy. As silver flowed into China and her farmers and artisans expanded their produce, they became more entangled with the market economy, which eventually saw the rise of a new class as wage workers replaced corvee labor. This also necessitated monetization, the conversion of some levies into money, expediting the commercialization of the economy. The transition also saw a greater empowerment of the merchants, whose skills at working the local and world markets gave them huge profits. Soon, China was well on her way towards recovering from the Yongle Emperor's excessive extravagance.

However, this prosperity came at a significant price. As China's population expanded, so did her demand for arable land, as land allotments shrank, forcing farmers to make due with less land than their predecessors. The Emperor attempted to alleviate this by encouraging immigration to the north and west provinces, especially the area around Beijing. However, due to differences in soil and weather patterns, these farmers often had to accept loans from landowners and merchants to pay for their new farms. If these farmers could not pay their debts, they often sold their land to the same people to whom they owed money, undermining the reason behind their immigration. The commercialization also drove a demand for silver, which spurred the need for trade. The government's reluctance to open silver mines, for fear of them falling into private hands and undermining the government's base, only exacerbated the problem.

These changes, plus the growing plight of the peasants angered the Confucians, who once again attacked the Emperor for failing in his primary duty: to protect the physical and moral well-being of his people. They said the people were becoming greedy and forgetting classical Confucian values, and that the Emperor, who was supposed to set the moral exemplar so that others would follow, had to either reform or risk losing the Mandate of Heaven.

The Emperor faced a potential no-win scenario: if he did nothing, he would lose the support of the Confucians and possibly face a succession crisis; if he tried to appease the Confucians, he would lose the support of the merchants, whose skills and profits were becoming increasingly important to China's well-being. For a while, it seemed that history would repeat itself as it did back in the reign of the Yongle Emperor.

Fortunately for the Emperor, he had three distinct advantages over his father: first, commerce, and the changes it was producing, were among the top five sources of revenue for the government; second, half of the present, and most of the future, Confucians were from the younger generation, who grew up in the midst of this change, and were often subsidized by the new wealthy classes; and third, he ascended the throne and ruled the Empire differently from his father. These differences undermined the reactionaries support, meaning that the Emperor's position was relatively secure, so the threat of civil war was much lower than it was in his father's situation.

All the same, he needed to find a way to placate the reactionaries, for they still had significant influence both within and without the court. They also had something the Emperor did not count on: Zhu Zhanji, Prince Zhuang of Liang, and a surviving son of Zhu Gaoxi, the Emperor's brother. The reactionaries were hoping to use him as a challenger to the Emperor's legitimacy to the throne, claiming that he stole the throne as his father did, providing them the justification for overthrowing him. Enticed by the promise of ruling the Empire, Zhu Zhanji agreed and readied the forces stationed in his fiefdom.

On April 23, 1437, the reactionaries made their move, infiltrating the Emperor's palace in Nanjing, and making their way into the inner rooms, supplied with maps from a corrupt eunuch named Wang Zhen, who had attained a fortune through dealing with merchants and wanted more. The Emperor's compromises with the Confucians, however, kept most business under government eyes while promoting them into the open. By allying with the reactionaries, who promised to reverse the economic changes, he knew that he would have access to a wide array of industry and business much freer from government oversight. He also distracted the guards while the reactionaries made their way inside. As they entered the Imperial bedchamber, they leapt upon the bed, ready to force or even kill the Emperor.

Unfortunately for them, Wang Zhen had betrayed them, and told the guards of the plot before-hand, and had them waiting for the conspirators just outside the Emperor's quarters. The conspirators, realizing they had no chance to escape, attempted to kill the Emperor before they were arrested, only to find that the Emperor had been sleeping in a different chamber and a fake body was put in his place. During the struggle, most of the conspirators were killed, and the rest were arrested. Meanwhile, Zhu Zhanji had reached Nanjing and prepared for battle.

The Emperor, hearing of the massing of troops outside his city, ordered his guards to prepare for battle and to open the gate. Seeing the gates open, Zhu Zhanji's forces quickly swarmed the city, heading for the palace to seize the throne. About halfway through, however, the gates were thrown shut, trapping them inside, and the Emperor's guards ambushed them. Taken by surprise in the narrow and crowded streets of Nanjing, Zhu Zhanji's forces could not maneuver themselves into formation and were cut down mercilessly. Zhu Zhanji, realizing the battle was now of life and death, attempted to rally his troops and press on, but he was attacked by a guardsman and forced to engage in a duel. He fought bravely and staunchly, but he did not have the experience his opponent did and his throat was slashed, ending his life instantly. Seeing their leader fall, the majority of the troops surrendered, though a few fought on defiantly, and were killed in the process.

The coup defeated, the Emperor sought out the body of Zhu Zhanji, hoping to confiscate it before anyone else saw and recognized it. When it was found, he faced a terrible dilemma: how to keep the coup attempt quiet? If it was known, he faced the prospect of festering further dissent, polarizing the court, and possibly even future coup attempts. In the trial, he sentenced them to death for plotting rebellion against the Emperor. Next, to eliminate the threat posed by Zhu Zhanji's sons, he reassigned them to guard the northern borders against the Mongols. Finally, he hosted imperial exams to replace the Confucians that conspired against him, filling the ranks with the new generation, a generation that grew up in the midst of the ongoing changes.

Zheng He's Last Voyage
In September of 1438, Zheng He set out on another voyage to the south, to establish talks with the Gujarat Sultanate and other cities along the Indian coast about the potential of building a Chinese commercial presence within their cities. This, however, was more a fact-finding mission than anything else, as the court was still hesitant to establish commercial bases outside of China and her traditional vassals, Korea and Vietnam. If the situation was stable and would be so for several years, then the court would allow it. If not, then they would look elsewhere. Similar missions were sent under different commanders to Indonesia and the Philippines, with the same orders as Zheng He.

Within a few months, Zheng He arrived along the Indian coast and entered the city of Surat, asking to open talks with Ahmed Shah I. The Sultan, old and preoccupied with domestic affairs, sent his son and his ambassador from his capital in Ahmadabad to meet and talk with Zheng He. The opening talks were about China's desire to establish a trading post in Surat to store goods and money for trade with India and other powers along the ocean. The proposed arrangement was that Chinese merchants would manage the trading posts and all business deals and arrangements, but would pay small taxes to the city for small-time protection (i.e. thieves) and infrastructure, and for maintenance and labor, the merchants would hire local people for labor. However, in the case of civil strife or rebellion, a small garrison of Chinese soldiers, augmented by local mercenaries, would protect the trading post. Due to the Chinese distain for foreign goods, India was losing silver to China, and the opportunity to even the trade imbalance was a tempting idea. The deal was left unclosed, however, as the Sultan himself would make the decision rather than his ambassador, who came to ensure the "fairness" of the deal.

Over the next few months, while Zheng He and the Sultan negotiated over the Emperor's proposal, his men scouted around the neighboring kingdoms, including the Delhi Sultanate, to see what the political and economic situation in India was at the time. They learned of the growing power of the Vijayanagara Empire on the southeast coast as well as the new Gajapati Kingdom just north of it. One constant snag in their tentative negotiations was the insistence that China back a particular kingdom militarily and economically. This was directly against the Emperor's wishes, as it would undermine their reason for coming, to increase commerce, and it would invest China in India in a manner that she was not prepared for. For this reason, many negotiations ended with "failure".

Eventually the negotiations boiled down to either China closing a deal with the Gujarat Sultanate, or no deal at all. While the Sultan was willing to agree with the conditions of the treaty as set by the Chinese, he still insisted on one thing that Zheng He was hesitant to grant: he wanted a small share of the profits from the commercial activities, no more than 20 percent. Zheng He, while eager to close the deal, was unsure whether the deal would be worth it, so he consulted the merchants. While they did not like the idea of the Sultan receiving a share of "their" profits, they calculated it would be worth it, though they asked if Zheng He could haggle with the Sultan. In the following negotiations, Zheng He managed to set the percentage at 15 instead of the Sultan's 20, and the deal was done.

Over the next three and a half years, the Chinese merchants, using local labor and Indian and Chinese engineers, built the first trading post in Surat. The design was based on stone instead of wood, for stone was stronger and more resilient to fire and rodents, improving the protection of the valued goods stored within. To withstand the monsoons common in India, the rooves were sloped to allow rain to drip off, and to avoid the high winds, the buildings, including the famed pagodas, were made relatively low and stocky compared to their counterparts in China. The pagodas were also of a different design, with their rooves made of a more circular design rather than the more usual square shape, and they did not flare out as much as they did in China. To compensate for the relatively low height, the stores were made larger and contained subterranean chambers, though these were usually reserved for more waterproof goods, such as jade and porcelain. Zheng He and the Sultan's son both oversaw its construction and on February 27, 1445, the trading post was finished, and others were being planned along the coast.

Unfortunately for Zheng He, he never saw its completion as he did from a feverish disease about halfway through its construction. Given his contributions as a diplomat and an admiral, he was buried with full honors, with the Sultan's son, Muizz-ud-Din Muhammed Shah, in attendance. He was given a full Islamic burial in the firm ground by the sea.

The fleet returned home with the all of the news. While the Emperor was pleased that the deal was sealed and that soon would be conducting trade across the Indian Ocean, he was still heart-broken over the death of Zheng He, whom he considered a dear friend, and perhaps more. It is rumored that his death shortly afterward, on August 1, 1445, may have been due in part to Zheng He's death. His son, Zhu Zhanqi took over as the Chenghe Emperor on August 2, 1445.

Northern Frontier
Although China was largely advancing trade and commerce in the Indian Ocean and South East Asia, things were not going well in the Northern frontier. The Chinese tactic of division between the Mongol tribes has not been working, ever since a largely influential Mongol leader, Esen Taishi, took power. He has conquered Manchuria and Mongolia is now posing a serious threat to the Chinese, especially since the Mongolian raids on Chinese border villages. However, the emperor was too involved in the projects in the Western Ocean to be devoted in the defence project, until now. With trading posts built in India, the emperor can finally take a serious look on the approaching Oirats.

Now that the emperor have time governing over the Northern frontier, the army begins banding in the North of China. As the army mobilized on the northern frontier, the Mongol raids died down, but whether this was merely a tactical withdrawal. Both sides stared each other down across the Great Wall, daring each other to make the first move. The Chinese had the edge in numbers and technology while the Mongols had superior mobility. Neither side could profitably invade the other's territory, prolonging the stalemate.

The Emperor, perhaps a little naive or arrogant, attempted to negotiate with Esen, hoping to end the conflict peacefully. He knew that any attempt to invade the steppe would be futile due to the Mongols' superior mobility and the Chinese army's dependence on long supply lines.

In 1447, October, 17th, Esen and the Chenghe Emperor met in Shenyang to negotiate. However, Esen wanted China to give tributes to the newly formed Oirat Empire, as well as more trade, which the Chenghe Emperor knew would allow large amounts of Chinese luxurious goods to flow into Mongolia in return for primitive goods, such as cows and milk. On the other hand, China asked Esen to retreat out of the already claimed Chinese lands, which will force thousands of Mongolians to move and force the Oirats to go out of the rich steppes near the Yellow River. Also, historical precedent was that any deal forged between China and the nomadic tribes tended to be transient, being broken as easily as they were formed due to the two sides different lifestyles. After one day of talks and negotiations, the compromisation failed due to the largely different views of both sides and urged Esen to quickly wage war on China, since Chenghe Emperor would likely never agree with the Mongolian terms.

Within days the Mongols raids resumed, though these were little more than skirmishes between the raiders and the garrisons of the towns and villages they attacked, and for the most part they were repelled. The Emperor, however, understood that these were simply probes for weakness than any real attempt to invade China. However, he was unsure of whether these were a diversionary attack to draw Chinese forces away from more important targets, or if they were the preliminary for a massive attack against the weaker areas. Unsure, he called a council of war. His cavalry chief, Zheng Wanxian, the son of Zheng Enlai, who was Zheng He's nephew and adopted son, along with Yu Qian, the current Minister of Defence, recommended that the Chinese infantry and artillery be deployed to protect the more important sites, meaning such sites as the city of Beiping and the Grand Canal. The cavalry, on the other hand, should be ready to engage the Mongols in a game of hit and run, intending to wear them down while coaxing them to fight where the Chinese held the advantage. They knew that in a cavalry fight, the Mongols, having more and better horses, would definitely win, whereas if they could lure the Mongols into an ambush by their infantry, then they would lose. Others, including the eunuch Wang Zhen, denounced the plan as cowardly and advocated that the Chinese should make the first strike, arguing that a major defeat within China would cost the Emperor the people's support. The Emperor, having learned well from his father, decided to try and entrap the Mongols, by leaving one area, near Hami, particularly vulnerable by delaying reinforcing the garrison, as bait to lure the Mongols in.

On the steppe, Esen was growing tired of playing hit-and-run, but knew he had virtually no chance of taking on the Chinese army in a head-to-head battle and winning. When he heard that Hami's garrison was slowly weakening and that it had not been getting reinforcements, he smelled both opportunity and a trap. While he recognized that Hami was not as militarily important as other positions farther east and was more distant from the main population centers, meaning that slow reinforcing was to be expected, he was still hesitant to attack in full as the garrison was weakened but not critically. He also recognized an opportunity to break into China and wrecked havoc while the reinforcements were still arriving. He still suspected that it was a trap, perhaps the Chinese making the garrison appear weaker than it really was. Unwilling to risk it all at the moment, he ordered repeated attacks on Hami to gauge the response.

Skirmish at Hami
With the repeated Mongol attacks on Hami, little retaliation were made and as the Mongol cavalry saw, mostly were by the peasants, wielding basic weapons, such as spears made from poles. Esen, now seeing the chance and how the capture of Hami, may mean another way to attack China without passing through the Great Wall. He banded up 1,000 Mongol cavalry and 2,000 Mongol horse archers.

Pre-dawn, on November 14th 1447, a Mongol army appeared from the steppe and attacked the area around Hami, taking the defenders by surprise and killing many villagers. The soldiers, drowsy from sleep and chilly in the pre-morning dawn, were slow to react. When they finally managed to orient themselves, they counterattacked, hoping to blunt the Mongol attack at the very least. Fortunately for them, while the area surrounding the city was heavily damaged, the main garrison, safe behind the city walls, managed to escape the carnage. Just as the defenders managed to a working defense, however, the Mongols left as soon as they came. Riding westward, the Mongols began attacking targets of opportunity, including supply wagons, making their intention clear: instead of attacking the city-walls, they would simply starve Hami into submission as the majority of their army swarmed into China.

The Emperor, learning of the attack at Hami, faced intense criticism in the court, who accused him of failing to pacify the barbarians when he had the chance. The Emperor, surpisingly calm, simply replied that Esen simply took the bait, shocking the court. He revealed that he already had a plan for dealing with the Mongols, and that THEY, not HE, made a fatal mistake. With the great, wide steppe the Chinese had no hope of defeating them without a prohibitively expensive campaign. Now, with the Mongols inside China, they had a chance to defeat them decisively.

The Emperor's plan, formulated between himself, his cavalry commander, and Minister of War, was to allow the Mongols into China, and then use their cavalry to attack them in their own game of hit-and-run.