Algorithm (The Red Paper Map Game)

Location
Location is how close the nation is to the place of the conflict. Goes by capital city.
 * At the war: +10
 * Next to the war: +8
 * Close to the war: +4
 * Far from the war: -8
 * Halfway around the world (separated by ocean): -10

Tactical Advantage

 * Attacker’s advantage: +2
 * Defender’s advantage: +5
 * Surprise attack: Attackers +6
 * Home is island: Defenders +4
 * Home is desert: Defenders +6
 * Home is jungle/tropical: Defenders +8
 * Home is tundra/arctic: Defenders +10 in winter, +12 in spring
 * Amphibious landing: Defenders +8 (yes, this means invaded islands will receive a +14 bonus)

Strength

 * Every nation militarily helping with belligerents/defenders: +Military Tier
 * Every nation nonmilitarily helping with belligerents/defenders: +Military Tier/2
 * Every vassal militarily helping with belligerents/defenderes: +Military Tier/2
 * Every vassal nonmilitarily helping with belligerents/defenders: +Military Tier/4
 * Every nation militarily occupied by nation: -1.5
 * Side with greater population: +5
 * Side with greater industry: +5

Technology

 * Every nation militarily helping with belligerents/defenders: +Tech Tier
 * Every vassal militarily helping with belligerents/defenders: +Tech Tier
 * Total technology: +TotalTechTier/(Number of nations*.75)

MotiveEdit

 * Life or death (country’s sovereign existence is threatened): 10
 * Religious: 7
 * Social/moral: 6
 * Political: 5
 * Economical: 3
 * Total motive: TotalMotiveCount/(Number of nations*.75)

Morale

 * Recent major military defeats (within past year): -2 per defeat
 * Extermination of conquered peoples: -3
 * Motive is less than 6: -1
 * War lasted beyond 7 years: -3
 * Total motive: TotalMotiveCount/(Number of nations*.75)

Nuclear weapons

 * Strategic nuclear weapon use on capital city: +10 for belligerent, -10 for defendant (of nuke). +2 per additional nuke for belligerent, -2 per additional nuke for defendant.
 * Strategic nuclear weapon use on major city: +7 for belligerent, -10 for defendant (of nuke). +1.5 per additional nuke for belligerent, -1.5 per additional nuke for defendant.
 * Strategic nuclear weapon use on minor city: +5 for belligerent, -10 for defendant (of nuke). +1 per additional nuke for belligerent, -1 per additional nuke for defendant.
 * Tactical nuclear weapon use: +5 for first tactical nuke, +.5 per additional nuke.
 * Nuclear weapon use for belligerent: -5 morale this turn and next turn.
 * Nuclear weapon use for defendant: -2.5 morale this turn only.

Industry

 * Full participationa: +Industry Tier
 * Partial participation: +Industry Tier/2

Troop Numbers

 * (First digit in troop numbers + Number of digits in troop numbers)/1.5
 * EX: 1,000,000
 * (1+7)/1.5 = 5.66667

Chance
Take the UTC time at that moment. (ie 21:32). Then, multiply those numbers. Any zeros count as one. Then take the declaring user's edit count. Then divide the UTC number by the edit count. Multiply that number by pi Take the fifth digit in the number then multiply by 1.5, and there's your chance. If anon user or NPC, use 1000 for edit count.
 * 2*1*3*2= 8
 * ie 2831.
 * 8/2831= 0.00282585658
 * 0.00282585658*pi= 0.00887318966
 * 7*1.5= 10.5

On top of your main nation, vassals wil each receive .25 of your chance score.

Fronts and Total
Once added up, the total score is multiplied by 1.5 divided by the number of fronts. If there is only one front, disregard this part and simply use the total.

Grand Total = Total*(1.5/Fronts)

Result
A score differential of 45 will mean that one side capitulates; the algorithm changes annually, so be careful! An advantage may disappear in a day. Build up your score differential until you win.

Credits:PitaKang