User blog comment:Eastward Expansion/A New World (Book Review Part 4)/@comment-461469-20100818032850

My theory of World War Three will be over resources. No doubt about it. World War One Was basically about Nationalism, that one country or people was better than another, while World War Two was a "hyper" Nationalism, combined with outright territory conquest and trying to establish supremacy over the rest of the world.

But the world has come closer together through trade, air travel and the internet, and Nationalism has, although not died, is starting to loose its former appeal ot he world. Despite some weaknesses in the United Nations, World War Three has not broken out yet, for many countries look to the UN to help with their problems as an outside, and international mediator. But when Peak Oil hits (around 2025, by some estimates) then the world will have to fight in order to secure a future power source as the price of crude skyrockets. The US will try to protect Canada to keep the World's second largest deposit in their influence, while Europe will be forced to accept Russia, while China tries to push its influence into the Mid East and Africa. But if one of these sources starts to run out (most likely the Mid East first), then China will look at Siberia for its future, and that could start World War Three. The US will eventually be dragged in too, but it is up in the air with who, so I'll just say that the Russia-China war might end in a nuclear exchange, but I would highly doubt it, as China would want to secure the resources of Siberia, while Russia, no longer able to use Stalin-esque tactics to win, will have to fight with conventional weapon's unless China attacked first.

I know this isn't perfect, but this is what I think will happen.