Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-10975360-20140530130134/@comment-10975360-20140611123314

yes 21 points was an outlier, but the first tory lead since the summer of 1989 occured the day after thatcher resigned, thats more than a coincidence

yes the tories were gaining since the summer, because the poll tax rioting had ended, but labour still had a pretty firm double digit lead (on average)

apologies, to 38% before thatcher resigned to 46% the day after, an 8 point advantage

major won the 1992 election because he ran the best campaign on incumbent government had run since the 1950's, his "soapbox" campaign, and his personal image as a normal and trustworthy leader helped him enourmously

remember that thatcher would still have a party that was far from united, Geoffrey howe would have already called for her resignation, and over 100 conservative MP's would have voted against her in the leadership election. She would not have run a formidable campiagn as she had in 1983 and 1987, as her party would be disunited. Remember by june 1991 (or march) she would have been prime minister for 12 years, people would have wanted a change.

btw, there were no major national elections in nations that participated in the gulf war in 1991, although george bush sr's approval rating definately surged, the incumbent governments in canada, france, and the US were defeated in elections in 1992/1993.