Republic of China (Blue Dragon)

So today what remains of the former Republic of China still resides on the island of Taiwan where they were exiled to when they lost the Chinese Civil War in 1949. So, what if that hadn’t happened? What if the Nationalist won the Chinese Civil War instead of losing? So, in this timeline, I will be covering the period from September 1945 just after World War 2 ended to 2000 when Nationalist China is a global military and economic superpower.

Chinese Civil War (1945 - 1948)
So we will begin on September 2nd 1945 when the Japanese surrender so they agree to formally hand back china the area captured by them during World War 2 as well as places like Manchuria and Taiwan that were taken from china prior to the start of the Second Sino Japanese War in 1937. The Japanese would start withdrawing from china and the Nationalist would be following behind them to take the areas that were occupied by the Nationalist. So, like in our timeline, the Soviets would occupy Manchuria and the northern part of Korea. The Soviets would withdraw from Manchuria in early 1946 when the Chinese Civil War resumed and as they did in our timeline, they would secretly agree to hand over Manchuria to the Chinese Liberation Army. The Soviets would withdraw the last of their troops from Manchuria on May 3rd,1946 however the soviets would continue to occupy Dalian in southern Manchuria.

The timeline starts diverging from our own once the Chinese Civil War resumes in March 1946 when the Soviets hand over control of Manchuria to the communist. In this timeline, the United States would offer the Nationalist much more support than they did in our timeline just short of direct military intervention. This would include more supplies and military advisors been sent to China to advise the Nationalist and help them win the war. With the increased amount of supplies that Nationalist have they would be able to defeat the communist by January 1948 by pushing them all the way back to the Soviet border and what’s left of the communist forces would retreat into the outer Manchuria region of the Soviet Union where they would continue to launch guerrilla attacks on the Nationalist with support from the Soviets for some years to come however by January 1948 the war would pretty much be over. However, the Chinese Communist would still launch insurgent attacks on the Nationalist from across the border in Outer Manchuria and across China for years to come.

Communist Purges (1948 - 1950)
After they defeat the communist, they would then focus on removing all traces and influence of the communist in China by declaring martial law which would stay in effect until 1976. This would be done through executions of suspected Communist and those who opposed the KMT, shutting down of company and businesses which suspected links to the Communist and stuff like this. Basically, a massive purge like what happened in South Korea in our timeline with the Bodo League massacre and with the White Terror in Taiwan. They would also focus on defeating and conquering and integrating the warlords since large parts of China would still be controlled by the warlords. They would also start fortifying their border with the Soviet Union and North Korea. I predict that the Nationalist would have all the warlords defeated by the mid-50s.

Korean War (1950 - 1951)
I think it’s still likely the Korean War would happen in this timeline however unlike in our timeline, there won’t be anyone to come to North Koreas aid when they start been pushed back past the 38thparallel in October 1950. It’s very likely China would join the UN lead coalition and they would prepare for a fake invasion of North Korea from Manchuria in early September 1950 to distract the North Koreans by forcing them to divert a majority of their stationed troops in South Korea to the Chinese border, however China would stop one step short of actually invading. This will give the UN coalition vital time they need to land troops in Busan and Inchon near Seoul, while most of the North Korean troops stationed in the south are in the north. By the start of October 1950, almost all South Korea would be back under the control of the South Koreans and the UN lead coalition would begin pushing into North Korea. By January 1951 Pyongyang would have been captured and North Koreans would have been pushed all the way up to the Soviet border and they would surrender. The UN troops would then leave after the war ends. Korea would then be reunited under a southern government led by Syngman Rhee. Korea and the US would then station troops near the border with the Soviet Union and the US would have bases near the border with the Soviet Union also to deter any kind of Soviet invasion or counteroffensive for that matter. Korea and the US would continue to be close allies.

Taking Back Control (1951 - 1955)
After the defeat of North Korea, the Nationalist would use the opportunity to demand the return of Dalian from the Soviets who occupied it when they occupied the rest of Manchuria after the end of World War 2. This will probably happen in January 1951. After the Soviets hand back Dalian they would probably lease the place to the US so they can set up a military base there in exchange for monthly payments and some military equipment. Another thing they would probably do during this time is to negotiate an end to the unequal treaties which the Nationalist saw as unfair giving foreign countries too much control. They will also probably demand Tibet become part of china or else they invade so this will probably happen sometime in 1951 or 52. The Nationalist would during this time continue their campaign to defeat the warlords and reunite china which they should have done by around 1955, the insurgencies would continue probably until the early 60s. So, by 1955 most of the area that china controls today in our timeline would be under the control of the Nationalist apart from a few places like Aksai Chin and Macau. They would also become a founding member of SEATO (short for Southeast Asia Treaty Organization) when it's established in 1954 and would start modernising their military with the help of the US and possibly begin researching and developing the stuff needed to make Nuclear Weapons with the help of the US.

Industrialisation Begins (1955 - 1960)
In the mid-1950s once the Nationalist have managed the regain control of all of China and Tibet as well as bringing an end to any insurgencies, they would start focusing on industrialising the country and rebuilding. This would include China opening its doors to American investors and US Companies as well as allowing the United States to establish military bases in places like Manchuria and other places throughout china where they can be close to the Soviet Union in exchange for massive loans at low-interest rates. This would be followed by a restructuring of china’s economic system to allow it to be more productive. The process of industrialisation should be fully completed by the early 1980s.

China’s Rising Military Power (1960 - 1965)
During the period from the start of 1960 until the beginning of Operation Rolling Thunder in February 1965, China would continue to develop its economic power but would also focus on developing its military power. In 1962 the Nationalist would in a show of military power take Aksai Chin from India in a border conflict. Pakistan would agree to hand over Trans-Karakoram as a token of friendship between Pakistan and China. The Nationalist would be focusing heavily on researching and developing nuclear weapons. With the secret help from the US the Chinese would research nuclear weapons technology and most likely would test their first nuclear weapon around 1962 or 63. They would start developing nuclear development facilities and by the start of 1965 would happen maybe 5 to 10 nukes on hand. During this time, they would continue buying US military equipment to modernise their military and could potentially order an aircraft carrier or two from the US. They would during this period focus on the threat imposed by North Vietnam as the Civil War between North and South Vietnam drags on so they would begin mobilising troops near the border with North Vietnam to prepare for the need to invade soon. By the mid-60s China would be the regional power in Asia and in the coming decades would become a Superpower also.

Vietnam War (1965)
In March 1965 the US and China would launch a joint invasion of North Vietnam in response to the communist threat posed by North Vietnam to the rest of Asia. The US and South Vietnam would invade from the south while the Nationalist would invade from the north with the US supplying the airpower. Given that the North Vietnamese wouldn’t be getting the number of supplies they did in our timeline they would be much weaker so it would be expected that the war itself would only be at most two months. North Vietnam would after the war be occupied by China and the US for a month or so or it could be longer depending on when South Vietnam wants to unite Vietnam. Communist insurgencies in Laos and Cambodia would eventually be crushed with the help of both China and the US.

China’s Growing Economic Power (1965 - 1978)
The period between the time the Vietnam War comes to an end in May 1965 and the time Chiang Kai-shek dies in April 1975 China would transition to become an emerging economic and military superpower. They would then reach full superpower status in the mid-80s once China transitions away from being a one-party state. This period would also see China start to expand its influence over the country’s like Vietnam, Laos Cambodia and Korea which would slowly fall under Chinese influence and time progressed. This period would also see China try to bring Mongolia under its influence as well. Chiang Kai-shek would then pass away on April 5th 1975 and his Vice President Yen Chia-kan would take over for the rest of his term until May 20th1978 when his term ends. Chiang Kai-shek's son, Chiang Ching-kuo would then be elected by the National Assembly as the next President of China.

End of the One-Party System (1978 - 1981)
When Chiang Ching-kuo takes office on May 20th1978 he would as part of his effort to improve relations with the US and the rest of the Western World would in 1980 lift martial law and in 1981 introduce limited democracy which would allow for one-third of the Legislative Yuan (Lower House) to be directly elected and controlled by other parties while the remaining two-thirds would be reserved for the Kuomintang or KMT in the form of having appointed seats. The National Assembly (Upper House) would continue to have its seats appointed. The reason he wouldn't introduce full-scale democracy was that he feared opposition parties from some states may use it to push for independence. Particularly in places like Tibet and the Xinjiang region. The KMT would hold all of the major electoral regions in China while the less important regions would make the directly elected one-third of the Legislative Yuan. This would allow for opposition parties to form. One of which would be the Democratic Progressive Party or DPP which would go on to become the main opposition party in the Legislative Yuan. The first democratic elections would be held in 1981 with all elections for the Legislative Yuan happening every 3 years. The directly elected one-third of the Legislative Yuan would be won by the Pro-Democracy coalition which would be lead by the DPP with the remaining two-thirds been appointed and given to the KMT. This period would also see China become fully industrialised. China would also during this time invest heavily in developing Mongolia to bring the living conditions up to standards with the rest of China which should be achieved by the late 80s.

China’s Transition Towards Democracy (1981 - 1990)
During the 1980s China would reach full superpower status becoming a military and economic superpower. This period would see china transition towards full-scale democracy. In 1984 the Sino-British Joint Declaration would be signed which would see the UK agree to hand Hong Kong back in 1997. As part of the Sino-British Joint Declaration, the UK would agree to introduce democracy to Hong Kong which would see free democratic elections for the entire Legislative Council. A similar agreement would take place between Portugal and China in 1987 which would see Portugal agree to hand back Macau in 1999. On January 13th1988 Chiang Ching-kuo would pass away and his Vice President Lee Teng-hui would become President serving out the rest of his term. In 1989 Mikhail Gorbachev would visit China in an effort to bring an end to hostilities between China and the Soviet Union. This would result in closer relations between the Soviet Union and China. Also in 1989 Lee Teng-hui would abolish the two-thirds of appointed seats in the Legislative Yuan to allow for the entire Legislative Yuan to be directly elected as well as the entire National Assembly. He would also push for changes to the constitution which would allow for the President to be directly elected and for anyone from any party to run for the position, a two-term limit would be introduced also to ensure no one can be president forever as well as the shortening of the current presidential term to 4 years from the existing 6 years and terms in the Legislative Yuan would be extended to 4 years also. In 1990 the first democratic elections for the entire Legislative Yuan and National Assembly would take place which would see the KMT retain a majority with the DPP winning over 40% of the seats in both houses. The first presidential election would also take place which would see the president be directly elected for the first time. In and a race between the DPP candidate and President Lee Teng-hui, Lee Teng-hui would emerge as the victor.

Beginning of the Democratic Era (1990 - 2000)
During Lee Teng-hui's first term he would abolish the system where the National Assembly (upper house) needs to approve all presidential candidates like with the US Electoral College in favour of having the popular vote. He would also agree to allow Hong Kong and Macau to hold referendums to let the people decide if they wish to become part of China or become independent. Hong Kong would vote to become independent whereas Macau would vote to become a part of China. Also during his first term, the Soviet Union would collapse and be succeeded by the Russian Federation. Mongolia would adopt a new constitution and would become a democracy in 1992 and would fall under Chinese influence. Lee Teng-hui would then win a second term in 1994. Then in 1997, Hong Kong would be granted independence and become a parliamentary constitutional monarchy with the Queen as head of state like in Australia and Canada however with a Prime Minister as head of the government. Chris Patten would become the first Governor-General of Hong Kong and government house would become the home of the Governor-General serving the post until July 1st 2002 when his term expires. In 1998 the DPP would win the presidential election. In 1999 Macau would be handed over to China by Portugal.