Talk:1983: Doomsday/FI Archive 1

Exact POD definition
Since a long time a TL-inconsistency was September 26th, 1983 being defined as the POD of this ATL..but in fact the POD must be "several days earlier" as defined on the start page. I inserted September 19th decision being made to send Colonel Petrov on a training seminar somewhere else as a provisional explication. Any other versions you might think of? --Xi&#39;Reney 22:14, November 11, 2009 (UTC)


 * hmm. seems like I am too concerned about things no one else is concerned about...I should not spend so much time on them...hmmm...or dramatize them  ...did I loose the feeling for the 1983: Doomsday Timeline...?--Xi&#39;Reney 18:19, November 13, 2009 (UTC)
 * Well, it does seem like a minor technicality; it means you had to change a couple of notes on what, exactly, the POD was. Are you saying there are other butterfly effects from those two days, between the time Patrov was reassigned, and when the blips appeared on the Soviet radar screen?  I think that the two colonels' schedules would have been affected, and their families, and maybe some internal Soviet memos would read differently, but I think the rest of the timeline itself, after the missiles were launched, would be unaffected.  Benkarnell 19:37, November 13, 2009 (UTC)

I afree with ben on this i dont think the date would make that much difference --Sultanate of Luxombergha (Pure Arabica):Owen1983|Owen1983]] 02:10, November 15, 2009 (UTC)

Oil Race!!
Originating in the Alaska discussion above I would like to draw your attention to the question /importance of oil in TTL. Giving the cataclysmic dimensions of our Scenario (and learning from Mad Max :P) I would guess that retrieving (or securing) access to oil would be a crucial point for at least the would-be-global player in Geopolitics after 1983...First I try to get an image of the situation in the main oil producing regions, then the necessities/perspectives of the most important nations (again, just from memory, serious backing with figures and fact later.)


 * Middle east: the major producer of oil in then 1983...The whole region plummeted into chaos, largely affecting (at least for the first time) the oil production. ALso if you loose all your main clients every business and first goes down the drain. So Oil production would drop sharply, at least in the major countries like Saudi-Arabia, Iran etc. Taking into account a possible nuclear-going war from Israel, the American based in the region being hit..we would have a large chaos in that region...


 * USSR/ Caucasus... though loosing most of the market in the first moment, the existing oil-producing infrastructure would largely be intact IMO. Allowing for a quite fast recovery and build-up of production, benefiting mostly the Siberian Soviets...

Alaska (:P) would be largely intact though taking a time and a large engineering effort to reinstate significant poduction.. they together would be TOP PRIORITY for the ANZUS (Australia/NZ/APA) to be secured.
 * US: a bit divided... Texas/Mexican Gulf would be out of the game for the next decade at least until the surrounding nations and most important the remnant US entities recover in production and create interest in producing oil again. Until that, regional importance. Maybe interference/operations from Mexiko or even tries by the ANZUS /or European nations trying to protect the oil.


 * South America (espec. Colombia/VENEZUELA)... Able to nearly maintain the level of production. Vital importance for all SAC nations and industries! Large potential for especially Venezuela getting influence


 * South East Asia (Indonesia, Brunei etc.) ... as established quite chaoic but rebuilding to Brunei (1983: Doomsday) and Indonesia (1983: Doomsday) and the need for oil/fuel by neighbouring ANZUS/later Commonwealth should lead to a significant production being maintained.

Now some countries perspective:

they are dependent from importation...IN the first time after Doomsday, trying to upkeep industrial production and military power they will HAVE to reach out for something overseas... First wouñld be Indonesia (and the region) of course but then (and adding Hawaii to the game) securing US Oil (also to protect someone else laying the hands on it) they would reach out for Alaska and (to a smaller extent) the Gulf of Mexiko. High motivation in the early years coming from the rival SAC having their "on oil well in the garden" and the Siberians in the North. Middle East virtually out of reach.
 * APA/ Australia/NEw Zealand/ Hawaii... Having not really a large domestic production (though some NZ oil is OTL being found in NEW Plymouth)


 * European Remainder&Canada entities...would strongly rely on the Celtic Alliance/Nordic Union production in the North/Barent Sea and aiding in Securing the Gulf of Mexiko and maybe trying to get some influence in the Middle East, especially as ADC later on...


 * Siberia: has a head on because of HUGE domestic potential or large resources in relatively close reach.


 * SAC: as explained has the vital resource on the doorstep... maybe some domestic discussions and problems because Venezuela trying to play out its influence.


 * OPEC: a bit hard to think... with world communications largely down and the global oil market (and stock markets) wiped out I doubt the Opec would exist, at least effectively even though Vienna is largely intact (Alpine Confederation).

role of the LoN ? I would doubt that even after 27 years the major nations would allow or cede any control of oil resources to the LoN...more than a puppet "LoN OIl Organization" would me be more than an illusion.

PLot perspectives? Getting the control on oil would be a major motive in the post-Doomsday world, given Nuclear power being quite discredited and "Green technology" (at least until the 2000`s) not getting dynamic due to technological loss...the "Race to the Middle East" or a possible try by Greeks, Egypt, Iran to get hand on the wells in the Arabic...a lot of potential for worldwide stories and impact. --Xi&#39;Reney 19:01, November 16, 2009 (UTC)

I saw a map that showed a petroleum deposit lining the east coast of America. And Virginia is just the kind of nation to abuse, and ignore the enviromental side effects. --Yankovic270 02:19, November 17, 2009 (UTC)

I can see some sort of global role for Indonesia, as it was OTL a member of OPEC until 2008. In regards to the Gulf of Mexico, the only real players in the region would have been Mexico and Cuba. Mexico would have been the more stable of the two nations and therefore able to establish a foothold there above everyone else.--BrianD 02:43, November 17, 2009 (UTC)
 * This may be helpful for editors in developing scenarios. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Oil_fields_by_country --BrianD 02:48, November 17, 2009 (UTC)

Another thing to consider is oil shale reserves. How difficult it would be to extract usable petroleum from shale needs to be determined, but they could be of interest to nations post DD looking to find oil. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale_reserves --BrianD 02:50, November 17, 2009 (UTC)

The NAU likely has oil - the Alberta oil sands. Could also explain why they are such a large stable country. --DarthEinstein 03:27, November 17, 2009 (UTC)

For awhile, I have laying out where I planned to take the nations of the Middle East I am working on, specifically those of the Arabian Peninsula, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, etc. Part of this revolves around the effect of Doomsday on the oil market. In 1983, much like today, their economies revolved largely around the production, refinement, and shipping of oil and natural gas to nations such as the US, China, Japan, India, and Western Europe. Additionally, the revenue derived from this helped to fuel the vast modernization and public works projects which transformed these countries. With Doomsday, these customers are essentially gone. I see their economies taking a nosedive, as revenue drives up. Nations will still be buying from them, but not at the same rate. For the most part I see countries reaching out to local sources, such as the Celtic Empire going to the North Sea; North America and South America to Canada, the Gulf of Mexico, Mexico, and Venezuela; Russia their own fields; and ANZAC, most likely Indonesia. With many sources and few customers, the customer is in the position to shop around for the best price and quickly whatever is left of OPEC vanishes as everyone is out for everyone else. More than likely we would see regional cartels. My future for the Arabian Peninsula is for their economies to dovetail. This in turn halts internal projects. Also, with companies laying off thousands of workers competition for jobs will become intense and as a result, populations go nativist in that they expel the thousands of foreign workers in ugly and violent purges in order to preserve jobs for nationals first. The royal families/sheiks/emirs will suddenly find themselves poorer as their overseas bank accounts and gold supplies evaporate overnight, impacting their hold on power. As a result, these nations band together and form an Arabian Union, a la OTL European Union, which will allow them to combine resources and survive for the foreseeable future while ensuring those in power, stay in power over time. They had started to move in a similar direction a few years earlier and I see the process being accelerated by events. Before I publish my articles for these nations, I thought it best to lay out my mindset and this section seemed the best because of the topic and the role it plays. I would appreciate any input regarding where I am going. Thanks.--Fxgentleman 03:40, November 17, 2009 (UTC)

When it comes to fuel I see Virginia either importing from their close friend Kentucky, or attemppting to find and alternate source of fuel to get an atvantage. Lincoln woyld get it from the NAU. Yankovic270 03:49, November 17, 2009 (UTC)