Venezuelan Crisis, 2017-Present (The More Things Changed)



On March 29th, 2017, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) of Venezuela took over legislative powers of the National Assembly, which is controlled by the opposition, the Democratic Unity Roundtable. The Tribunal, which is controlled by President Nicolás Maduro's United Socialist Party (PUSV), also restricted the immunity granted to the Assembly's members. The coup has taken place in the ongoing protests against Maduro's government, which first began in earnest in the economic collapse of 2014.

On April 26, Maduro's government announced that he would be withdrawing his country from the organization of American States (OAS) which Venezuelan Foreign Minister Delcy Rodríguez has denounced as "imperialist."

The Organization of American States and most of the international community have condemned the actions.

Economic Collapse


Under the Presidency of Hugo Chávez, the Venezuelan government embarked on a series of ambitious anti-poverty and social welfare programs - the Bolivarian Missions - designed to reduce illiteracy and poverty, improve access to healthcare and education, and consolidate Chávez's authority in the country. These programs were paid for largely by the strength of Venezuela's oil reserves - in 2012, for example, more than 9 out of every 10 dollars the government spent came from oil and oil derivatives.

With the drop in global oil prices from 2012-2014, the government of Chávez and his successor, Nicolás Maduro, were unable to continue funding the missions, and the government was unable to adapt to the stark drop in revenue.

As a consequence of the dependence on the country's vast oil reserves, many rural Venezuelans moved to urban areas, divesting from otherwise fertile farmland. As a result, Venezuela is a net food importer. In addition, in 2003, Chávez set strict price controls on food, encouraging hoarding, starting food shortages, and forcing the country into a state of arbitrage.

Food shortages, in addition to a housing crisis and a sharp economic recession, have lead to protests in the streets of Caracas and other cities across the country. Since 2014, there have been ongoing protests, retaliatory violence, and governmental crackdowns on protestors.

Judicial Coup
On March 29th, 2017, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice issued Ruling No. 155, which states, in part:

"'It is ORDERED by the President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, in accordance with the provisions of Article 236.4, in accordance with the provisions of Articles 337 et seq. eiusdem (see Ruling Nº 113 of 20 March 2017), between to exercise such international measures as it deems appropriate and necessary to safeguard the constitutional order, as well as, in the exercise of its constitutional powers and to ensure the governability of the country, to take civil, economic, military, political, legal and social measures that it deems necessary and necessary to avoid a state of commotion.'"

Opposition


The reaction from the opposition was swift - Julio Borges, leader of the opposition, stood on the steps of the National Assembly and tore up a opy of the ruling, describing the seizure of power as a coup d'état by President Maduro.

The Organization of American States, the United Nations Human Rights Council, and countries across the globe condemned the actions of the government. In addition, the Peruvian government broke off diplomatic relations with Venezuela and recalled Mariano López Chávarry, the Peruvian Ambassador.

On April 19th, up to 6 million Venezuelans marched in protest of the coup, with nearly 3 million in Caracas itself, in what became known as the Mother of All Marches (La madre de todas las marchas). In the ensuing chaos, over 1,000 people were arrested or detained, and nearly 150 people were killed or injured.

Challenges
On March 31st, 2017, Chief Prosecutor Luisa Ortega Díaz, a member of the ruling United Socialist Party, broke ranks with Maduro and appeared on state television with a copy of the 1999 Constitution, denouncing the Tribunal's ruling was a "rupture of constitutional order."

Following this criticism, Maduro publicaly ordered a review of the TSJ's decision, but the review resulted in no change of policy.

Diaz further called for Maduro to remove immunity from prosecution of the justices on the TSJ, stating: "It would be the death of law if we allow these magistrates to continue in that chamber."

Withdrawal from the OAS


On April 26th, President Maduro announced that his country would withdraw from the Organization of American States, beginning a two-year-long procedure.

Luis Almagro, Secretary-General of the OAS, has previously said Venezuela should be suspended from the organization if it does not hold general elections "as quickly as possible." Tabare Vasquez, President of Uruguay, has stated "we do not think Venezuela should be isolated." This sentiment was echoed by Susana Malcorra, foreign minister of Argentina.

On May 31st, a meeting of the foreign ministers of the OAS states took place, with Ricardo Luna Mendoza, the Peruvian foreign minister, stating that he hopes the OAS could "establish a position and possibly a mechanism that changes the situation."

Following a May 16th press release by OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro, condemning the Maduro's government, the United States Ambassador to the Organization of American States, Lincoln Chafee, released a concurrent statement which read:

"“It is incumbent upon us, the international community, to show leadership in seeking areas of common ground. The United States of America will strive to find common ground and build on that to achieve a peaceful solution for the people of Venezuela.”"

"Continuar Caucus"


The foreign ministries of the United States, Canada, Peru, France, and Uruguay have formed a working group to de-escalate the diplomatic and humanitarian crises in Venezuela. In this capacity, they have reached out to the governments of Cuba, Ecuador, Trinidad and Tobago, Bolivia, and representatives of ALBA as a whole, as well as accepting the support of Pietro Parolin, Cardinal Secretary of State for the Holy See, and Aldo Giordana, Apostolic Nuncio to Venezuela.

Foreign Policy reported in May of 2017 that Ambassador Chafee had initiated talks with the OAS Ambassadors of Cuba, Trinidad and Tobago, Antigua and Barbuda, and other allies of Venezuela in he hemisphere, as well as meeting with representatives of ALBA (Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America), which had been founded by Hugo Chávez.

Since May 12th, Chafee has hosted informal meetings at his Siren's Song villa on St. Thomas, one of the United States Virgin Islands.

Hunger Bonds Movement
See also: The New York Times Document Leaks (The More Things Changed)

Since 2013, its economy has shrunk 27 percent and its food imports have dropped by 70 percent. The Wall Street Journal reported that according to the National Poll of Living Standards, 75% of Venezuelans lost an average of 19 pounds in 2016.

In May of 2017, American investment firm Goldman Sachs announced that it had purchased $2.7 billion worth of bonds from Petróleos de Venezuela, the state-run oil company. In response, the "hunger bonds" movement sought to shame Goldman Sachs and potential future investors in the Maduro regime.

Following the revelation that Goldman Sachs further invested $900 million directly to the Maduro government through a shell company - the Wilmington-based Paxehaknik Management - the hunger bonds movement grew even more intense. Eduardo Lugo, a 23-year old college student and a leader of the movement, said:

"'By giving $900 million to a dictatorship, they are funding a systematic human rights violator, they are funding immorality and for Maduro to stay in power while he keeps killing people.'"

Constitutional Assembly Election
In May 2017, President Maduro called for a Constitutional Assembly to draft a new constitution, replacing the last constitution, adopted in 1999. The 545 members of the constitutional assembly will be elected on July 30th, with 181 will be selected by political and social groups - such as fishermen and workers - that would likely give the Socialists a majority.

On July 17th, the Democratic Unity Roundtable held a symbolic referendum rejecting the Constitutional Assembly; requesting the military defend the existing constitution; and demanding new elections before Maduro's term expires. Over 7.2 million people participated in the elections, with over 97% voting in protest of Maduro.

The day before the Constitutional Assembly election was scheduled to take place, citing "interference of foreign powers" and "threats to national security," Maduro declared the planned referendum "delayed indefinitely."

Resolution Talks
In addition to the talks in Washington D.C. and the Siren's Song villa, talks between the Maduro administration, ALBA countries, the United States, France, Canada, and other countries have taken place in Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago. or Ottawa, Canada.

Ottawa Agreement
On October 30th, 2017, a preliminary agreement - Parameters for a Plan for Lasting Peace in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela - was reached in the multilateral talks in Ottawa. The agreement was signed in Rideau Hall, official residence of the Governor-General of Canada. Among the provisions of the agreement are:
 * Reinstating Venezuelan membership in the OAS
 * Reinstating Venezuela’s suspended membership in MERCOSUR
 * Encouraging the Inter-American Development Bank to give support to Venezuela
 * Promoting further development of the Bank of the South
 * Encouraging Cuba to resume membership and activities in the OAS
 * Withdrawal of USAID from Venezuela, and a freeze in funding for other ALBA countries
 * Withholding funding the National Endowment for Democracy for activities in Venezuela
 * Encouraging the Democratic Unity Roundtable to focus on the 2018 Venezuelan election as opposed to pursuing a recall referendum