Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-10975360-20140530130134/@comment-10975360-20140609160617

so are you saying that only days, or weeks after losing on of their safest seats the tories could romp home to a fourth sucessive victory?? i think not

my political opinoins are irrelevant, i look at this from a strictly non political perspective. My bias is not against the tory party (after all, this is ALTERNATIVE history) but against the possibility of Thatcher carrying on for another 6 months, and leading the tories to a majority government.

mail on sunday poll november 3rd 1990 - tories 21 points behind (the greatest difference since the poll tax riots that summer

november 19th 1990 sunday times - tories 8 points behind labour

november 23rd 1990 sunday corrospondent - tories 6 points ahead of labour (the day after thatcher announced she would not contest the leadership, therefore effectively resigning)

you could therefore deduce that thatcher resigning gained the tories about 6 percentage points (from 38% on the 19th, to 44% on the 23rd)

i dont think kinnock could have won a majority either, but a june 1991 election would give labour 37%, the tories 38% and the lib dems about 20%, the tories a little over 300 seats, labour a little under 300, and the lib dems about 25. A lib-lab minority coalition with confidence and supply agreement with plaid and the snp.