User blog comment:VonGlusenburg/Alternate universes, probability and alternative outcomes/@comment-4727448-20120814225011/@comment-1630894-20120817222128

That's probably because of the fact that many wars are not close to the extent that a single battle determined them.

It depends on what the POD of Napoleon losing is. If it was a very close battle, then I am sure some althistorian in that universe who read about such a close battle may make a timeline where he loses.