William the Silent Survives an Assassination Attempt in 1584

POD- William the Silent survives an assassination attempt by a Catholic Frenchman in Delft in 1584

1584- The single cheap pistol carried by Balthasar Gerard misfires as he attempts to shoot William the Silent in the chest in his home in Delft. William draws his sword and fends off the would-be assassin.

March 1586- Strong English support for the Dutch rebels in the Low Countries allows the Dutch to seize Brussels. In desperation, Philip II rushes to send an Armada to take back Spanish holdings there and to attempt to sack London.

October 1586- The ill-prepared Armada encounters the combined English and Dutch fleet, where its hasty assembly, minimal logistical support, and lack of drilling time shows. It is decisively defeated. Of the roughly 120 armed ships, the English and Dutch capture 38 and destroy 22. Some 20 unarmed transports are caught anchored near the coast after the victory, and compelled to surrender. The return voyage, with the remaining vessels low on ammunition and under constant harassment from English and Dutch privateers and scattered naval vessels, costs Spain another 19 ships captured or burnt. The Armada returns to port in Lisbon with 41 lamed ships in varying states of disrepair. Over 12,000 soldiers are captured with the transports, as well.

1587- Philip II receives news of the Armada’s decisive defeat, and suffers a heart attack three days later, as he flies into a fit of rage at an advisor informing him that Spain lacks the bullion to rebuild the fleet in anything less than three years. As far as his doctors can tell, he dies on the spot.

1587- His son ascends the throne as Philip III, with a series of King Philip II’s advisors as his regents. He proves to be a weak-willed and feckless ruler, which will have implications for Spain, Europe, and the New World later on.

1592- The Dutch rebels in the Low Countries virtually complete the liberation of all Spanish holdings there, leaving a few scattered garrisons to be gradually starved out of their fortified towns over the next two years. William the Silent is crowned Prince William I of the Princedom of the Netherlands. He sets his sights on building a colonial empire overseas as a counterbalance to Spanish power in the Americas.

1593- The rebuilding of the Spanish Navy is nearly complete under the 2nd regent of Philip III. The fruits of this program can be seen in increased revenue reaching Spain from its overseas colonies, particularly Peru and the Philippines, as the larger, better-trained navy beats back piracy in key areas.

1594- Philip III’s second regent dies. The cause is unknown but widely believed to be poisoning, an assassination attempt by one of innumerable palace factions.

1596- Philip III becomes a closet Protestant, under the influence of his third and final regent, himself a Netherlands-born Calvinist. Together they begin to quietly place other Protestant contacts into positions of power and recruit Swiss mercenary battalions to ensure the loyalty of the army.

1597- Philip III orders the purging of the entire office of the Spanish Inquisition. At first, this move is greeted with joy by the harried and terrified citizens of Spain and Portugal. Their joy quickly turns to horror when he announces that the new state religion of Spain will henceforth be Calvinist, though most Protestant denominations will be tolerated.

1598- French Huguenots begin fleeing France in droves, piling over the Pyrenees, where they are greeted with open arms by the besieged government of Philip III. They quickly ascend to numerous positions of power. By 1620, French expatriates and their descendants will make up the majority of the Spanish Army and Navy. A sizeable portion of his power base evaporating before his eyes, Henry IV of France develops significantly closer relations with the Netherlands and England as a counterbalance to increased Catholic influence within his own country. A small but noticeable flow of Protestant, but French-speaking, Walloons leaves the Netherlands for France.

1600- The first permanent English colony in North America is founded in Virginia. It is called Elizabethtown, after the still-reigning Elizabeth I of England. It will soon become English royal policy to encourage political and religious subversives to emigrate to British North America.

1602- The first in a series of religious purges and minor civil wars begins in Spain. These will wrack the country over the next thirty years as it settles into a new identity of mixed religious denominations. A massive wave of emigration to the Spanish colonies in the new world begins. It focuses at first on the Caribbean, which turns into a Spanish lake as even French colonies there are overrun by Spanish and Portuguese Catholics, Muslims, Jews, and Protestants fleeing the cycles of persecution at home.

1603- Elizabeth I of England and William the Silent both die, within hours of one another at their respective capitals in London and Amsterdam. James I of England is crowned in London, and begins moving away from his alliance with the Netherlands. William’s son, Maurice of Nassau, is crowned Maurice I.

1616- Dutch settlers reach the Cape of Good Hope, establishing the first permanent overseas Dutch colony there. It will attract many immigrants, including Spanish and French, because of the Dutch policy of religious toleration at home and abroad.

By this year, the English have established a number of other colonies in North America and along the Gold Coast of Africa. Tobacco cultivation is becoming a profitable business in North America’s Chesapeake region.

Also, Philip III of Spain is assassinated by a Catholic fanatic as he travels to a summer palace in northern Catalonia. His son ascends to the throne as Philip IV, though regents will govern Spain until he reaches his majority.

1618- The Ten Years’ War breaks out in the Holy Roman Empire, initially in Bohemia. The first six years go entirely for the Catholic forces, led by Austria and Bavaria.

1624- Danish intervention on behalf of Saxony pushes the Austro- Bavarian alliance back into the south of Germany by 1626. However, King Christian IV of Denmark is killed while campaigning. His son Frederick is to be crowned, but dies after he falls ill rushing back from the front to Copenhagen. Thus, his son Ulrik is crowned Ulrik I of Denmark. All of Denmark, and the Protestant cause in northern Germany, now looks to Gustav II Adolf of Sweden for leadership.

1625- Though the number of natives living in the American reaches of the Spanish Empire has fallen below one million, the population of the Caribbean holdings of Spain has surpassed 500,000 for the first time. British holdings in North America are approaching a population of 100,000, while the Cape Colony of the Dutch has passed the 10,000 mark under strong impetus from financial incentives given by the Dutch government.

The Swedes, under Gustav II Adolf, had been making preparations for an invasion of Poland. However, upon hearing of Christian IV’s death in battle, he immediately transferred his focus to Germany, landing in October opposite Stralsund and spending the winter recruiting, drilling, and integrating his forces with the Danes already in position along the front lines.

1626- The combined Protestant armies begin a major offensive in March. Despite being outnumbered by the armies of Wallenstein and Tilly, Gustav Adolf manages to split their lines in the Battle of Breitenfeld through superior cavalry tactics and artillery drill. Tilly is mortally wounded by artillery fire early in the evening, though he retains enough strength to hold his nearly untenable position until nightfall, when the Swedes’ Lapp and Finn cavalry cannot pursue his retreating armies. Wallenstein’s army falls into disarray upon being cut off from Tilly, who had appropriated his cavalry under Pappenheim. They are shattered by the same cavalry Tilly avoided, and the army is completely decimated. Of the roughly 80,000 men brought into battle by the Hapsburgs, 50,000 are killed, wounded, captured, or defect. Gustav Adolf’s army grows to over 100,000 men in the months following the battle.

1627- To the Swedes, a number of things become clear: Northern Germany needs more infrastructure to support their prolonged campaign; Sweden alone lacks the population base to fight a war against Bavaria and Austria; and the Dutch are the only force that can keep the Spanish from mounting a major intervention. To address the first, Gustav Adolf announces a series of incentives for Dutch, Danish, and Swedish businessmen to move to Germany and start-up businesses. A ten-year economic boom begins in the northern German provinces as an army, eventually numbering 150,000, actually buys their goods and services for the first time in history.

The king proposes an absolutely revolutionary measure to deal with the second. He suggests nothing less than the resurrection of the old Union of Kalmar. This time, political power will be split evenly between Denmark-Norway and Sweden. The capital will be Stockholm for half the year, Copenhagen for the other half, and King Ulrik and Princess Christina will be wed and share power after Gustav Adolf’s death. In the interim, he will share power with a council of Swedish and Danish noblemen. The measure begins to earn widespread support among the Protestants of northern Europe.

The Dutch, however, have problems of their own. The monarch of Spain, Philip IV, is another Catholic, and wants the Netherlands returned to the fold. This will consume Dutch and Spanish attentions for the foreseeable future.

1628- King James I of England dies. His successor, Charles I, is crowned. His legacy is mixed, but includes the development of British North America as a major colonial holding. Charles I immediately begins provoking Parliament by attempting to take into his own hands the Power of the Purse.

The Spanish, under Philip IV, attempt to mount a renewed invasion of the Netherlands from the Spanish Franche-Comte. However, the Dutch take the war to them, invading the Franche-Comte while the army is still assembling, and raiding Spanish ports up and down the Atlantic coast. As a result of the latter, and Philip IV’s policies towards the sizable protestant minority in Spain, the New World begins to look more and more attractive to Spanish and Portugese, especially the middle class, which is dependent on maritime trade and largely Huguenot in origin.

The Swedish, realizing that the Spanish are occupied, press their offensive home in southern Germany, invading Bavaria proper and forcing the surrender of what is left of Count Tilly’s army. The Austrian emperor agrees to meet for peace terms. At this point the Protestant alliance holds all of Germany from Hamburg to just north of Munich.

1629- Portugal revolts against Spanish authority for the first time in a significant period. The Portuguese economy is entirely dependent on maritime trade, upon which the Dutch are wreaking havoc. Spain withdraws from Franche-Comte entirely and moves its army into Portugal to put down the revolt. Emigration from Portugal and the protestant sections of Spain accelerates, and the Spanish Army begins recruiting heavily from Neapolitan Italy.

The Peace of Augsburg is signed between Sweden and the northern German principalities on one side, and Austria and Bavaria on the other. The conditions are as follows: Austria and Bavaria will withdraw from Saxony, Hanover, Franche-Comte, the Rhineland, and Bohemia. Northern Europe will allow freedom of religion, and there will be no confiscations of holdings there, either Catholic or Protestant. Bavaria and Austria cannot confiscate Protestant holdings without fair remuneration, but Protestants may be bought out and sent north. The northern states will accept all such immigrants. Sweden pledges to assist Austria in the event of a major Ottoman offensive, but will not aid in any Austrian attempts to gain territory from the Turks. Thus, the Ten Years’ War comes to an end, with Austrian power decimated and Sweden in the ascendant. Within days of the treaty, the citizens of Saxony and the smaller states along the Baltic begin to clamor for Swedish annexation. Even the traditionally independent Hamburg joins in. All have experienced the de facto rule of Gustav Adolf, and have little desire to return to the rule of their venal and corrupt nobility.

1630- Charles I of England has completely alienated his Parliament, and finds himself obliged to dismiss it entirely. To gain funding for the mercenaries he uses to keep a lid on discontent, he has essentially been renting out the Navy to the Dutch, despite his Catholicism and his envy of Dutch commercial power.

The Norse Empire is formally incorporated in Copenhagen, as a unification of Denmark-Norway and Sweden. Its first High Council session is held in March, and agrees to accept the annexation requests of Saxony, Mecklenburg, Brandenburg, Brunswick, Holstein, and the smaller principalities in between. The Confederation of the Rhine, an alliance and trade union between Munster, Hesse-Kassel, Westphalia, and Wurzburg also begins to take shape.

France, meanwhile, has been quiet recently. The religious turmoil of the past century is beginning to quiet down as the worst of the fanatics move to take up the fight in Spain. It has been exploring and moving to build a Mediterranean fleet to rival that of the Ottomans. Its interest is in North Africa and the Gold Coast, not the Americas, where England and Spain have a commanding lead already. It does, however, take advantage of the power-vacuum in the Franche-Comte to move in and annex it. This greatly angers Spain… but they have bigger problems. The revolt in Portugal is gaining momentum, despite the crown’s piling of troops into the territory. It is beginning to look as if the Spanish will have to make some concessions and possibly even adopt the Swedish model of co-equal government, but Philip IV will probably not be the monarch to do it.