Talk:World War II: Failed D-Day Invasion

Discussion

How it doesn't make sense
First of all, German intelligence regarding the United Kingdom was terrible and utterly compromised by 1944. Under the Double X committee, EVERY German agent in the UK was turned. Furthermore, a large decoy operation (FORTITUDE) was created to suggest a landing in the Pas de Calais Region.

Second, a Division is generally around 10,000 men. (Early war divisions numbered 18k; as the war went on this number shrank)  By 1944, forces from the Eastern Front were generally understrength, and the front was flat out collapsing (Refer to Operation Bagration) which will lead to the destruction of Army Group Center and the inevitable collapse on the Eastern Front. Pulling men from this front is nearly suicide; it needs many more than it has.

Third, D-Day required a large parabourne invasion to seize initial strongpoints, such as Pegasus Bridge. These operations required full moonlight, which means that a postponement would be for at least a month.

In other words, the Eastern Front will collapse for no direct gain.

Fourth, Hitler will not remain calm given #3. That's kind of a big deal--the Soviets are angry, and they're moving into Germany, taking revenge on the insane people who decided to attack them in spite of their alliance, in spite of their good faith--and faced a deliberate attempt to reduce their people to helotry.

Fifth, the numbers presented from the Luftwaffe would reflect, in all likelihood, EVERY aircraft available to Germany. The drain on Germany's limited oil supply is a concern (as Ploesti, not far from the Soviet Front--and indeed, likely to fall within months). But the greater problem is that this also takes days to prepare, it denudes forces all across Europe, and its completely obvious. The UK had radar stations; these stations would see a giant death armada at a great distance--there would be no slaughter in the skies, because the real slaughter is Hamburg, Dresden or any other city that is being bombed while nearly defenseless. All of Germany is now vulnerable to air attack.

Sixth, the decision to attack given the gigantic, obvious air attack is entirely unrealistic. Indeed, in this scenario the allies are doing quite well by not landing in France at all. The likes of Dwight Eisenhower, George S. Patton and Bernard Montgomery are not going to launch an attack into an blatant trap, particularly after they know that Hitler has decided to play soldiers particularly badly.

Seventh, your casualty figures do not reflect the loss of Berlin to Soviet Forces, bombing attacks against unguarded forces or the assassination attempt against Hitler that could potentially succeed given his stupidity.

Eighth, the German Navy (The Kriegsmarine) as utterly outclassed by the Royal Navy even before the war began. Add in the presence of the US navy and the true quality of German Invasion Ships (Rhine River Barges!) and Sealion is open suicide.

Ninth, the UK had a backup plan: WMD! Churchill vowed the use of chemical weapons if Germans landed on the beaches. A still scarier (and potentially worse than NUCLEAR WEAPONS) choice was available:  Anthrax. The UK could render urban areas uninhabitable for centuries with weapons they had on hand.

Finally:  Even if all of this happened, the United States is busy creating a new, 10,000 Ton explosive weapon. Application to Nazi Europe will remove the National Socialists via superheated convection, and their dust will eventually return to Earth as radioactive fallout.

Short Version
This TL entirely lacks understanding of Germany's historical abilities, restrictions, or the concept of opportunity cost. While every attempt to write alternate history is difficult owing to the complexity of the world itself and unlikely or unusual outcomes might get glossed over, this TL isn't even at that level. Little research or understanding was done to create this project, which suffers as a result of that lack of knowledge and understanding.

In a second draft of this project, please consider the 10 objections above, introduce new characters (such as Erwin Rommel, the Desert Fox and Gerd V. Rundestedt, the actual commanders in France) and reconsider the direction of the story. A Failed D-Day is likely to lead to a nuclear sequel "X-Day" in 1946 and a Soviet advance to the Rhine, not the magical defeat of the United Kingdom.

Blue Max of AH.Com