Talk:1968 US Presidential Election (Robert Kennedy Survives)

I'm new here, but this is a topic that has always fascinated me.

I think that there are a number of improvements that could be made to this page to provide a more realistic probability of RFK having been elected in 1968 had he survived. It is in no way a given that this would have happened and I think a scenario that takes into consideration more of the political realities of the time would make this a more interesting page. Starting at the top of the page, in the box with the photos and names of the candidates, I think it very unlikely that Eugene McCarthy would have been Kennedy's running mate. Being that Kennedy and McCarthy were very similar in their antiwar position, there's not that much value that McCarthy would have added to the Democratic ticket in November. To general election voters, both would have been seen as antiwar candidates and seems very unlikely that antiwar voters would have not voted for Kennedy without McCarthy on the ticket. It's much more common for presidential nominees to try to "balance the ticket" regionally, ideologically or in some other way, and I propose a scenario in which Kennedy follows the VP strategy of his brother and selects the Democratic Senator from Texas, Ralph Yarbrough. Since Yarbrough was a liberal populist, Kennedy would not have compromised principles, but would have brought a more traditional, Southern populist face to the ticket--the main benefit being to win Texas's electoral votes without kowtowing to LBJ, which I don't think would have otherwise happened. Humphrey won Texas because he was LBJ's veep. No other Southern state (unless you count West Virginia) was won by Humphrey.

Next, in terms of the states and electoral votes to be won, basing the count on the states that Humphrey actually won is a good starting point, though not in every single case (as noted above regarding Texas). Additionally basing the count on JFK's victory in 1960 is not, given the remarkable long-term partisan realignment that had begun in 1964 (Republican Goldwater winning the Deep South). Looking at specifics--first, Maine went Democratic in '68 only because Senator Edmund Muskie was on the ticket. The state had only gone Democratic in the postbellum era twice, not even voting for FDR, and did not shift to the D column until the 1990s. Maine should be shown for Nixon without Muskie on the ticket. Secondly, North and South Carolina would not have voted for RFK. South Carolina did not even vote for LBJ in '64. With a pro-civil rights, antiwar, Northern liberal like Kennedy, I think both states would still have been in Nixon's column. And I don't see New Mexico and Nevada going to RFK just because they were won by JFK in '60.

So, how is a winning electoral coalition of states assembled to justify an RFK victory? Take Humphrey's winning states (with the exception of Maine) and add those states that he lost to Nixon by 3 percentage points or less, i.e., add Ohio, New Jersey, Illinois, Missouri, and--believe it or not--Alaska(!) (in 1968 Alaska had not yet settled into becoming a solid Republican state and many Democrats were still elected to statewide office). This will provide an electoral vote count as follows: Kennedy 270, Nixon 223, Wallace 45 (Wallace's 46th vote was an unfaithful Nixon elector). This is a plausible scenario, makes for a close and exciting race, and doesn't wildly exagerrate what Kennedy's prospects would have been. Popular vote counts would need to be adjusted to account for the difference.

Further down the page, Senator George McGovern should be removed as a candidate for the nomination. McGovern didn't enter the race until two weeks before the convention in August--long after Kennedy's assassination. He had been a Kennedy supporter and entered the race primarily because of Kennedy's absence.

Also, a little more research and some narrative about how Kennedy was able to win the nomination, with Humphrey having been already busy collecting so many non-primary state delegates. With regard to the primaries, we could say that the California victory would give momentum resulting in a string of final wins, including a big victory in New York (where he was senator). In non-primary states, RFK would need to go in and campaign there and continue to draw the big, diverse crowds and make enough impression on state and local Democratic politicos to win over the uncommitted and get those pledged to support Humphrey worried enough to switch allegiance. Ultimately, I think the antiwar McCarthy would have thrown his support behind Kennedy, not wanting Humphrey to win the nomination--maybe a pre-convention press conference where McCarthy endorses RFK after getting assurances about ending the war. There is also some historical evidence suggesting that the Democratic convention in Chicago would have been spared much of the chaotic protests that occurred if it had appeared that an antiwar candidate was leading for the nomination. Maybe then even Mayor Daley would have thrown Illinois's delegation behind Kennedy if he thought RFK were a more likely winner in November (there's some disputable evidence that Daley was ready to support Ted Kennedy at the convention if he had been willing to run in his late brother's place). A delegate vote count that takes such a narrative into consideration and maybe starts with the delegate count at the time right after the California primary would perhaps be helpful in improving this page.

JDaddy57 (talk) 04:35, October 12, 2015 (UTC)JDaddy57