Our Place in the Sun



"In short, we do not want to put anyone else in our shadow, but we also demand our place in the sun."

- Bernhard von Bülow, 6 December 1897

Introduction
Under the reign of Wilhelm II, the German Empire began to adopt a more aggressive, imperialist foreign policy (Weltpolitik) and sought to transform itself into a global power. At the outset of World War I, Germany had ambitious aspirations both in Europe and overseas. From the Septemberprogramm to plans for German domination of Mittelafrika, the empire had clearly laid out its plans to emerge as an imperial superpower after a victory over the Entente Powers. Obviously, these plans never came to pass, but if they had, the 20th century would have taken a radically different path. In many ways, World War I turned out to be an existential conflict between the major empires of the time. In OTL, all of the major empires on the defeated side collapsed quickly and absolutely after the war, whether it be due to internal strife and revolution or systematic dismantling by the victorious powers.

This timeline explores the possible differences in the post-war world following a victory of the Central Powers in World War I, what the subsequent collapse of the Entente powers could have looked like, and how world history since the end of the war would have developed.

Points of Divergence
After 1914, a German victory in World War I on the western front became extremely unlikely, but was certainly possible and several opportunities presented themselves throughout the war. It is somewhat unlikely that any single point of divergence would have been sufficient to lead to a German victory, so there are multiple loosely related points of divergence for the sake of this timeline.

1915-1916: German Tank Research & The Hindenburg Program
In mid-1915, Germany begins researching armored land vehicles capable of penetrating thick enemy defenses and breaking the trench warfare stalemate along the western front. The Germans establish a counterpart to the British Landship Committee and test a few prototypes. These prototypes are not successful and are mechanically unreliable, so the project is ultimately shelved after only a few months.



In August 1916, Paul von Hindenburg and Erich Ludendorff are appointed to the Oberste Heeresleitung (OHL), the German General Staff, and quickly begin working on a plan to reform the German army in an effort to salvage the situation on the western front. Inspired by the allied use of tanks at the Battle of the Somme, they implement the Hindenburg Program, included in which is the revival of tank research and production. By May 1917, about 1,300 LK II light tanks and 600 A7V heavy tanks have reached the front lines.

Throughout early 1917, German officer Willy Rohr, who had previously developed largely successful offensive tactics involving the use of elite "storm battalions," devises a way to combine armored vehicle attacks with the use of shock troops and infiltration tactics to break through enemy defenses and quickly flank or encircle enemy defenders.

1917: Summer Offensive
After the Nivelle Offensive throughout April 1917, the French army is seeing widespread mutinies and desertions due to the suicidal nature of the attacks and the utter lack of worthwhile gains in return. Hindenburg receives intelligence informing him of the situation on 2 May and it comes to his attention that entire French divisions along the Aisne River have mutinied or refused to follow orders. He hastily orders plans to be drafted for an offensive against vulnerable areas along French front lines using Rohr's newly developed tactics. The Summer Offensive, as it came to be called, commences on 4 May 1917 and successfully breaks enemy lines in key strategic locations: the Lys River, the Somme River, the city of Verdun, and the Aisne River.

Petain replaces Nivelle as Commander-in-Chief of the French Army and orders the Second Great Retreat to defend the Marne and stop the Germans from reaching Paris. The Germans begin a relentless advance which lasts over a month without being halted, which includes heavy fighting along the Marne. Much of the British Expeditionary Force is encircled and 1.2 million British soldiers are forced to surrender on 5 June, gutting the Allied army on the western front.

After a chaotic and brutal campaign, Germany has advanced from the Hindenburg Line and established the famous 1 July Line. Paris is surrounded on two sides and French morale continues to plummet, so Hindenburg orders the siege and artillery bombardment of the city, culminating in the French seeking an armistice on 9 July 1917, officially ending the war on the western front and allowing hundreds of thousands of German troops to be relocated to other fronts of the war. By the end of 1917, the entire allied war effort has collapsed and the final armistice of the war is signed between the German Empire, Great Britain and the U.S., between whom naval combat had been continuing, on 1 January 1918, officially ending World War I in a victory for the Central Powers.

Timeline of Key Early Events (1916 - 1920)
See also: Timeline (Our Place in the Sun)
 * 29 August 1916: Hindenburg and Ludendorff are appointed to the OHL and begin the Hindenburg Program
 * 16 April 1917 - 4 May 1917: The Allies carry out the Nivelle Offensive in a desperate bid to gain the upper hand on the western front and open the door for victory over Germany in World War I.
 * 4 May 1917 - 9 July 1917: Germany begins the Summer Offensive, hoping to exploit French mutinies, desertions, and general low morale following the disastrous Nivelle Offensive. On 9 July, France and Germany sign the July Armistice, which bans all Allied troops from carrying out further military operations in France. America and Britain are forced out of France and the war in the west continues mainly at sea.
 * 7 November 1917: The October Revolution begins in Russia, kicking off the Russian Civil War.
 * 13 December 1917: After the utter defeat of Italy at the Battle of Venice, all of the Allied powers apart from Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom sign an armistice with the Central Powers.
 * 15 December 1917: The Russian SFSR signs an armistice with the Central Powers, leaving the British and Americans the last two countries at war with the Central Powers.
 * 1 January 1918: The Central Powers sign an armistice with the United States and the United Kingdom, officially ending World War I in a complete victory for the Central Powers.
 * 3 March 1918: The Treaty of Königsberg is signed between Russia and the Central Powers, carving up western Russia and the Caucasus into several German and Ottoman client states.
 * 4 April 1918: The Central Powers and the Entente sign the Treaty of Ljubljana.
 * 28 June 1918: Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy sign the Treaty of Brühl, dismantling the Italian colonial empire, transferring many British and French colonies to Germany, carving up a small part of eastern and northeastern France, establishing demilitarized zones in France and Italy, demanding massive financial compensation from France and Italy, and placing massive military restrictions on France and Italy.
 * 1 October 1918: French Commander-in-Chief Charles Mangin leads a coup against the French government, creating a military dictatorship which will last until his death in 1925.
 * 2 February 1919: Following German intervention, the Russian Civil War ends in a victory for the Whites. The Kiev Accords are signed, partitioning Russia into several successor states in the Caucasus and Siberia.
 * 13 March 1920: The Treaty of Berlin officially establishes the German-dominated political, military, and economic union known as Mitteleuropa. The initial members include Germany, Belgium, Finland, Livland, Poland-Lithuania, and Ukraine.