User blog:Eastward Expansion/America and China (Book Review part 2)

''Please Note that this is a part of Eastward Expansion's Book Review for 'The Next Hundred Years by George Friedman' it may be wise to read the previous reviews. Eastward Expansion 13:04, July 30, 2010 (UTC)''

One of George Friedman's important quotes is

"Be probable. Expect the Unexpected"

This rings true of most of his predictions. In a world where we seem to talk quite a bit about how China will come to dominate the world of tomorrow, the unexpected would probably be a collapse of Chinese power. And this is exactly what the author of the Next Hundred Years says will happen.

China is certainly divided by poor, rural, inland areas and rich, urban, coastal areas. In the next few years, the inland areas will grow poorer while the coastal cities will grow richer. Rural Farmers will either move to the coastal cities (where they are treated as second-class citizens) or petition the government to try to even the divide. Not everyone can move to the cities. So the large rural population (which will still be by far the majority) will get its way. This will alienate the coast. The coastal areas will be more and more westernized by the month. As the Chinese Government pushes further and further on the coast, the coastal cities will seek Western Backing. Around 2020, the author says China will de facto collapse.

On another note, America tends to first under react, and then over react. That is the way we’re dealing with both the War on Terror, and the Economy. As for the war on Terror, do you remember America’s conflicts with Panama? Kosovo? Libya? El Salvador? At the time of those conflicts, it seemed to America that the fate of the world depended on them. The author “The Next Hundred Years” says that Americans of the future will remember the War on Terror no more than people of today remember the Spanish-American War.

As for the economy, he says that America has (in the last 15 years) already undergone a crisis larger than the one we’re currently facing.

Do you think these are accurate descriptions of America and China’s futures?

If so, why/why not? And what do you think the relationship between America and China will be?