User blog comment:NovaSims/What WW2 have been like if Hitler adnt attacked Russia and Japan hadnt attacked America?/@comment-4621372-20120909190549/@comment-9906822-20120909233016

A Nobel Prize winning scientist and military theorist actually, whose findings were amongst those crucial in the decision to deploy the atomic bombs. And once again, note how most of the estimates from these Generals and Admirals only accounted for the first thirty days and their own respective branches of the armed forces. I think we can agree that one needs far longer than a month to conquer Japan, just like the military planners anticipated when they put operations Olympic and Coronet almost halve a year apart.

And although I agree that rape wasn't as common amongst Americans as, say the Soviets, there was still enough to disturb the women of Germany and Japan thoroughly. And as Robert Lilly reported, only about 5% of rape at the hands of American soldiers was ever reported, as local women were often too frightened or simply ignored. And yes, this is indeed disregarding the big unknown whether operation Downfall was going to be an multi-national event, including the British Commonwealth and the Comintern.

Another big unknown is the reaction to Hirohito's intention of surrender once the invasion is actually under way. He was already reduced to the status of nigh-powerless figurehead in politics by the militarists and it's quite possible that, faced with annihilation on their own soil, the generals and ministers under sway of the IJA choose to fight to the bitter end instead. They sure had the motive and capability to do so, as they must've known that they would either die standing defiant or be send for execution by a post-war jury.

And the fighting spirit of guilt-driven Germans hardly applied to that of the shame-driven Japanese, who flew, drove and swam themselves into enemy units and rather threw their life away by bayonet charge and suicide attacks with grenades than go through the humiliation and resultant shame of surrendering. All they needed was a little bit of motivation from those higher up.