User:Fedelede/Ideas/Death to Lenin

POD
August 30, 1918. Fanya Kaplan, a radical of the left Socialist-Revolutionaries, is near Lenin's automobile after a speech. While he is talking to a woman, Fanya calls out to him, pulls out his revolver, and shoots him three times.

In OTL, two of the three shots turned out to wound him heavily, but were not fatal. One struck his jaw, the other his shoulder and a third missed him, hitting the woman Lenin was talking to instead.

But what if Fanya had had a better aim? What if she had shot Lenin through the brain rather than in the jaw, and Lenin fell dead immediatly after the attempt?

Monarchism in August, 1918
The Russian monarchy is doing pretty badly as of the moment of the POD. Nikolai II has been killed by this point, as has his whole family. So is Grand Duke Michael Alexandrovich, his brother and the one-day long Tsar of all Russias. However, his only son,, is alive and aged 8; maybe I can have him crowned Emperor of Russia? His lineage, though, is morganatic, so he isn't in the line of succession.

List of Succession to the Russian Throne in 1918
Note: people that are listed in itallics in this throne are dead as of August 30
 * , not in the line of succession
 * , not in the line of succession
 * , not in the line of succession
 * , not in the line of succession
 * , not in the line of succession
 * , not in the line of succession

Balkanisation of Russia
Russia was very divided at this point, which might make it weak enough to be divided into several nation-states if they acquire the help of foreign intervention and recognition. Some of the independent nations currently existing in Russia, as of Lenin's death:
 * the Ukraine: a lot. Many states exist in the Ukraine, including:
 * Flag of Ukraine.svg the Ukrainian State, or the Hetmanate, far-right and German-sympathetic, likely to collapse if the Germans do and restore the Flag of Ukrainian People's Republic 1917.svg Ukrainian National Republic, which was centre-left
 * Flag of Austria-Hungary.svg the Kingdom of Galicia and Lodemira in the Austro-Hungarian Empire, likely to break off as in OTL and form the West Ukrainian People's Republic.
 * RPAU flag.svg the Free Territory - Anarchist experiment by Nestor Makhno (!!!), allied with the Bolsheviks as of 1918
 * Flag of Crimea.svg the Crimean Regional Government- German-established, seems to be rather unpopular with everyone but Crimean Tatars
 * Belarus -the Flag of Belarus (1991-1995).svg Belarusian National Republic, also German-supported.
 * Baltic states:
 * Flag of Estonia.svg Estonian Provisional Government - underground, oppressed by the Germans
 * Flag of Lithuania.svg Lithuanian State - underground, oppressed by the Germans
 * Latvia apparently didn't declare independence until December of 1918. They must be suffering from malnourish too badly to worry about politics.
 * Flag of Lithuania.svg Kingdom of Lithuania - official, governed by Germany
 * United Baltic Duchy flag.svg United Baltic Duchy - under work, plan by the German nobility:
 * Flag of Courland (state).svg Duchy of Courland and Semigallia, in today's Latvia
 * Flag of Estonia.svg Duchy of Estonia and Livonia, under work, plan by German nobility
 * Finland: Flag of Finland.svg Kingdom of Finland, has not yet elected a king (maybe let's choose a Wettin?! OR A BERNADOTTE)
 * Russia - oh boy.
 * Flag of Russian SFSR (1918-1937).svg Russian Socialist Federal Soviet Republic - Will fall apart soon, without Lenin's union bickering between the various second-tier members of the Bolsheviks will begin, as will higher amounts of revolution by the Socialist-Revolutionaries, Mensheviks and other such leftist members of the soviets like the Kronstadt marines. Factions:
 * Flag of the Soviet Union.svg Bolsheviks - currently on top of the government and on control of everything. Further divided:
 * Flag of the Soviet Union.svg Left Communists led by Bukharin, who refuse a treaty with Germany, opposed self-determination
 * Flag of the Soviet Union.svgTrotskyist Defenders - part of the Politburo in 1917, Trotskyists support permanent revolution, a clear Menshevik influence, but are opposed to anything but pure communism in economic policies, so are far-left. Support the upholding of the Treaty of Brest-Litvosk. Predominant in the Central Committee of Petrograd.
 * Flag of the Soviet Union.svgStalinist Defenders - part of the Politburo in 1917, Stalinists often challenge Trotsky's decision, and it's quite likely open war will break between the two after Lenin's death. Prominent in the lower Volga and in the armies closest to Anton Denikin's Volunteer Army.
 * Red Flag.png Mensheviks - prominent in Georgia, support a revolution of the bourgeoisie before the revolution of the proletariat is possible, thus, might cooperate with the right. Led by Julius Martov.
 * Darker_green_and_Black_flag.svg Socialist-Revolutionaries - Most are not even Marxists, but share Communist and Socialist ideas. Many are more to the left of centre, rather than hard-left. However, the organised part in the RSFSR government is hard-left, given that the centrist SR government exists in Idel-Ural, Vladivostok and the Komuch. Divided between the Left SRs, which oppose ending war with Germany, and the Right SRs, which support it. Heavily agrarianist.
 * Darker_green_and_Black_flag.svg Green Armies - the armed wing of the peasantry, often affiliated with the SRs
 * Kronstadt Sailors, wishful of their own autonomous Soviets and opposed to the anti-leftist actions the Bolsheviks have done against the Mensheviks and the SRs. Might easily rebel, and bring huge parts of the population with them. They're also crack troops.
 * Czech legion-alligned states:
 * Flag_of_the_Ural_government_(1918).svg Komuch - my second-favourite Russian Civil War government, might survive for a while or even ride to victory with the rest of the White movement.
 * Idel-ural.png Idel-Ural State - apparently still alive, governs from Kazan, might also survive for a while since I like them too.
 * Flag of siberia (horizontal).svg Provisional Government of Siberia (Vladivostok) - SR-led, so might band up with the Komuch like OTL (only maybe without the white warlords?)
 * Flag of Bashkortostan.svg Little Bashkortostan south-east of Ufa; allied with the RSFSR
 * White nations:
 * Flag of Buryatia.svg Buryat People's Duma, under Grigori Semyonov. Maybe to be annexed by the Bogd Khaan?
 * Flag of Sakha.svg Yakut Revolt, independentist, maybe successful in TTL? Siberian Federation?!?!
 * Siberia flag.png Provisional Government of Autonomous Siberia (Omsk) - Denikin-led, I believe.
 * Siberia flag.png Provisional Government of Autonomous Siberia (Omsk) - Denikin-led, I believe.