User blog comment:Saturn120/World War II: Axis Victory through, prewar PODs/@comment-13740085-20140911020035

There are many things people say that "If only Hitler had ___" as if some one thing could've turned the tide. The problem was that there was a myriad of issues that the Germans dealt with which contributed to their defeat. We can start with problem 1: invading Poland in the first place. Germany, while having one of the greatest militaries in the world, had ill-prepared allied, namely Italy. Waiting a few years could change the war drastically one way or another. Hitler wouldn't have most of his great machines were the result of wartime issues. Italy and others might have been better equipped and prepared, and Spain might've decided to join Germany.

There were several circumstances during the war which could've helped Germany, but not necessarily win the war. For one, when the anglo-French lines were broken in 1940, many headed to Dunkirk to escape to Britain. They were on the ropes, yet the Germans held back, even though the allied troops were not in the best fighting condition. Had the Germans pressed their advantage, they would've taken more casualties, but more than likely the surviving forces would be decimated and those escaping to Britain would be a fraction of otl numbers. In otl, the large number of troops saved gave the British public a big morale boost. If it was a slaughter, you might've seen doubt growing in the public and in parliament.

As states before, the Italians were in no condition to wage war, yet they joined. Let's say they still do, but somehow they perform more competently. If they won the First battle of El Alemain, or at least held the Brits off until the Germans got there, the tide could've turned right there. If they lost, let's say the Germans win the Second battle of El Alemain, if the Germans, with what remained of the Italians, had managed to push into Palestine and Syria, they have access to all the oil they need.

Gibraltar is formidable, but not impregnable. Through history there have been 14 sieges of the Rock, of which about half resulted in it changing hands. If the Germans had won enough convincing victories (possibly like the previous two), Spain may have joined the war with the hopes of claiming Gibraltar. Coupled with Italo-German support, the resulting siege might've succeeded, but it wouldn't be easy. If Gibraltar had fallen one way or another, it would've helped the German side greatly.

Then there's Barbarossa. Let's assume, by some chain of events, Britain leaves the war. The most likely option would be an armistice, maybe with a more peace-hungry PM taking over, who knows. But in such an event, being able to commit to a one-front war would be ideal. What would be better for Germany (if it struck first) would be to learn from Sweden and France, and launch the attack in the spring if the events of the invasion until otl winter progressed in atl, odds are that Germany might've been able to take Stalingrad, maybe Leningrad, and thus have a place to hold for the winter. Maybe Germany can pull it out in the end, who knows. But the solution to a German victory isn't any one scenario.