Talk:1860 US presidential election (Just a Few More Years)

Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee, I can maybe buy Breckinridge coming out on top, though it's unlikely - these states were won rather handily by Bell or Douglas, and in Missouri he didn't even place second.

But the rest is just ASB. Breckinridge didn't even get 5% of the votes in Ohio, Illinois, or Indiana otl. Nor was he ever viewed favorably in any of them. For him to be able to win a plurality of votes in them would mean he'd have to gain, at minimum, in the area of 100,000 votes in Indiana, 150,000 votes in Illinois, and nearly 200,000 votes in Ohio would have to be transferred from both Douglas and Lincoln to him - 40% of the votes in Indiana, 45% in Illinois, and around 48% in Ohio. That is quite literally not possible.

And, in New Jersey the other two ran against Lincoln as a fusion ticket with Douglas and still lost. Dividing them means Lincoln wins there, no question.

Nor were Bell's group actually opposed, in theory, to slavery - they were opposed to the discussion of it, entirely. Nor did he get any real support anywhere in the north, either.

The election was about slavery. Not the economy, or foreign affairs. No amount of policy could gain Breckinridge more than a couple thousand votes in the north, and that has no effect.

Lordganon 07:22, January 3, 2012 (UTC)