User blog:Eastward Expansion/The Russian Bear (Book Review Part 3)

Please Note that this is a part of Eastward Expansion's Book Review for 'The Next Hundred Years by George Friedman' it may be wise to read the previous reviews. Eastward Expansion 20:26, August 1, 2010 (UTC)

Even today, cold war tensions between Russia and America are growing. The Main factor, is Russia's population. Russians are dying and growing old. But smaller ethnics groups such as Karelians, Chechnyians, Dagestanis, Buryats, Tuvans, and many others are on the rise.

In his new book, The Next Hundred Years, George Friedman says the World Stage is like a game of Chess. There are only five or so moves. The Better player you are, the better you see unintended consquences. Thus, the best players such as America and Russia are the most predictible, as they only have two or three possible moves, Russia will see these rizing smaller ethnicities (all of which want independence) and know that time is fighting against it. Each of these local groups will want more and more to have an independent nation. For the survival of a unified Russian state, Russia will need to show that it is a major power. It will need to make sure that no other power(s) have an influence or ability to attack Russia in the coming Crisis. In short, Russia will need to reclaim the territories of the former Soviet Union.

This will clearly conflict with German interests.

Germany will not want a more powerful Russia and will look to the other Europeans and NATO members. Only America and the nations that were formerly part of the Soviet Union (here onward referred to as the 'Polish Bloc', as Polans is its leader) will support Germany. So, any real power that NATO or the European Union have will end here. Germany will be discourage by lack of support from Western European countries, and will not want to start a Third World War (after starting the first two) so will back down.

Russia, will feel that since only America and the Polish Bloc, that they have already won. They will try to absorb countries in Eastern Europe and the Former China, and this will set off a Second Cold War.

However, Russia will not be prepared to face the might of America. Russia will eventually collapse. America will not be willing to let a unified Russian State escape its grasp the second time. Russia will be divided along every line.

George Friedman does say, that a Polish occupation of Moscow, is no that unlikely.

What do you say?