User blog comment:IndigoOnIceCream/Things Some People Think ASB But They Are Not/@comment-30228680-20120328043210/@comment-32656-20120328050035

That either means a PoD well before 1492 to have them in such a position, or the discovery gets put off 3/4ths of a century.

Moreover, that presumes vastly different behaviors in the Dutch than in otl.

And, "exactly" would not work either.

Basically, the Spanish got really lucky.

But, the Dutch doing in the same scenario? Not plausible. A different one? Maybe. But most results of the changes needed for that would either be ASB, or have immense changes to the world and negate it.