Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-10975360-20140530130134/@comment-32656-20140611143727

By the Tory leadership balloting, that lead had shrank to single digits.

By all accounts, Major got lucky in 1992. Had it occurred even the next day, he could have lost be the same margin he won by.

You make that statement about the party being disunited like that is a new thing. Every party leader has always had to deal with that, including Major. Political parties will "rally" around their leadership in an election - heck, it makes a 1991 date even more likely. Change matters less than you'd think.

Most "national elections" have fixed dates, and as such, they could not hold elections in early to mid 1991. By 1992, the popularity increase had went away, and their numbers went lower because of the economy.

The Brits and Canada were exceptions - and because of constitutional wrangling going on in Canada, an election was not feasible at that time. Heck, had the law not been five years maximum between elections (which was less than a month away otl) the 1993 Canadian federal election would have been a year or two later.

Only others that could have done it - Aussies and Kiwis - had had elections in March and October of 1990, respectively, and it would have been impossible to call another so soon.

In the UK, no fixed dates, and no constitutional problems to deal with - a unique position, actually. They could call an election while their popularity was at is highest. Major should have done it otl, actually. Waiting like he did was a foolish move, and almost cost him.