User blog comment:VonGlusenburg/Alternate universes, probability and alternative outcomes/@comment-4727448-20120814225011/@comment-4727448-20120817215921

What I mean is that losses are harder to create than victories. ATL Napoleon's loss would have to be put down to bad weather or the death of a major general or something. In OTL, creating a TL where someone loses is most likely a TL that requires an ASB element.