Well, I am planning to make a mapgame where Song China industrialises in the 14th century due to the acquisition of the Northern Jin dynasty, bringing it closer to coal deposits that it lacked during its "proto-industrialisation" (during which modern institutions were adopted and China emerged as the most advanced and wealthiest economy, though the Mongol invasions got rid of these advancements). Could anyone think of a POD where this could happen?
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Indeed, industrialised countries in the early nineteenth century such as Japan and Korea had high fertility rates (around 4 births per woman) due to low urbanisation rates at the time (only a fifth of the total population living in urban areas). I think something like this could happen in the Congo, having a similar path to Korea until the mid-seventies where the fertility rate will level off at 3 births per woman or something.
And, China was not industrialised by 1970. The industrial sector made up a large part of its economy only because all the other economic sectors are small in relative to it. China in 1970 was very poor. Same for Nigeria. And South Africa is industrialised, but its fertility rate is pretty low for an African country (2.5 births per woman, slightly below the world average).
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NuclearVacuum wrote:
Yes, you are wrong. The DRC's population growth is fuelled by very high fertility rates (in 2012 is was 6.04 births per woman). Lower death rates will still result in a lower population than in OTL.
So forgive me for being direct, but what exactly are you getting at? Are you saying that the overall scenario is not doable because of population? I'm seriously lost.
Oh, no, I think the scenario is plausible. I am just saying that the Congo's population will not be as big as other emerging powers.
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NuclearVacuum wrote:
Three of the main emerging powers – Brazil, India and China, have very large populations. Russia only was able to maintain rapid growth because its industries are not as labour-intensive as other industries.
The DRC's population is roughly 80 million and growing? I'd also suspect that war and economic growth would result in similar population growth. Am I wrong on this?
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NuclearVacuum wrote:
Candiesrgood wrote:
How would the Congo have the "essential" manpower to become an emerging power?May you please elaborate?
Three of the main emerging powers – Brazil, India and China, have very large populations. Russia only was able to maintain rapid growth because its industries are not as labour-intensive as other industries.
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Yeah, it's kinda hard to think of one. I might keep it vague, but detailed enough to be plausible.
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How would the Congo have the "essential" manpower to become an emerging power? Asides from that, I really love your timeline. Congratulations on getting it to featured history status!
(PS: What is happening to China at the moment, is it having an economic miracle or is it poor etc.)
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Didn't Japan invade the rest of Asia to gain access to raw materials not found in the Japanese archipelago (since it needed lots of it to support its new industrial base), and also to create buffer zones with Western powers? I also read somewhere that Japan only did Pearl Harbour because it interfered with its access to raw materials (didn't the United States put sanctions on oil prior to the attack?).
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Would the Japanese in Korea adopt Korean culture or retain their Japanese culture?
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Simmy1993 wrote: The issue in terms of the Northern Ireland analogy is that NI remained within the UK due to its citizens wishing to stay, (or rather the Protestant majority). Still, the people who saw themselves as British were also Irish, would the Japanese in Korea really be Japanese, or a Korean hybrid culture?
Current NI citizens, including myself are entitled to dual citizenship by virtue of birth on the island of Ireland. Would the denizens of this province perhaps be free to travel between the two nations?
The Japanese attempted to convert Koreans into Japanese culture, for example, they made Koreans convert into Shintoism, made Japanese the lingua franca, forced Koreans to adopt a Japanese name etc. But the relatively low amount of ethnic Japanese (as a percentage of the total population), and relaxed Japanese nationalism could lead to Japanese adoption of Korean culture perhaps (since it's easier to interact with the locals).
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I'm pretty sure the kingdom situated in the Philippine archipelago would be either Indianised or Sinicised.
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NuclearVacuum wrote:
FirstStooge wrote: Busan, the main city in Gyeongsang Province, actually was one of the cities with biggest number of Japanese settlers in Korea. In fact, Gyeongsang Province is still being the main conservative area even nowadays compared to progressive-leaned Jeolla Province.
Rally? That helps me out so much. Thank you. BTW (sorry for asking), would you happen to know of any maps which show the demographics of Korea under Japanese rule? Just curious.
Here's a picture showing the total population of Korea under Japanese rule. Despite the rapid increase of the Japanese population, they still constitute a minority and the native Korean population is several times larger.
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Good point. The effects of deforestation may be felt earlier in this timeline.
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Imperium Guy wrote:
Candiesrgood wrote:
I think it will survive into the contemporary era as well. However, I think it'll have a smaller population range due to the reestablishment of the world's growth forests after the eve of the Holocene interglacial, which will limit its habitat (open spaces such as grasslands or steppes).
Well its bone structure is found to be similar to Arabian horses and Arabian horses have spread all across the world due to their desireability as they possess qualities like long endurance capabilities and stamina and are generally faster than European horses. So although initially their habitat may be restricted, once domesticated they will most certainly spread to probably all across North America as tribes with these horses hold a huge advantage to tribes without these horses.
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Imperium Guy wrote: Also, the hangerman horse will definitely stick around - developing into something more like the domesticated horse but retaining that zebra stripes (who doesn't like a bit of whimsy?)
I think it will survive into the contemporary era as well. However, I think it'll have a smaller population range due to the reestablishment of the world's growth forests after the eve of the Holocene interglacial, which will limit its habitat (open spaces such as grasslands or steppes).
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Saturn1257 wrote: I'm wondering, would the timeline allow the hagerman horse to go extinct or not? Assuming that the lakes change the climate, perhaps it may be possible for their survival and the eventual domestication by Indians?
First of all, the primary cause of the Pleistocene–Holocene extinction event (which is marked by the extinction of most Pleistocene megafauna) is humans. Rapid temperature fluctuations regularly occurred prior to the extinction event with temperatures ranging from higher than today or much lower.
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