For this to have happened, Nicholas would need to have enacted much more far-reaching reforms following the 1905 Revolution. He would have needed to delegate all but his ceremonial power to the State Duma, transforming the Russian Empire into a constitutional monarchy similar to the UK. The Empire would likely become a two party system, with the Trudoviks on the left and the Cadets on the right, with several smaller third parties like the Octobrists, SRs, Bolsheviks and Mensheviks retaining very limited support. Successive Russian governments would likely focus on industrialising Russia and modernising its armed forces in order to make the country competitive with other major powers.
After the humiliation of the Russo-Japanese War, the Russians would likely sit out later conflicts, most notably World War 1, in which they would act as a mediator between the Allies and Central Powers. Without the USA or Russia getting involved, WWI would drag to a stalemate, before the two nations negotiate a return to the status quo ante bellum. This would probably greatly help the Democrats' popularity in 1920, allowing the Democrats to once again win the Presidential election and enact yet more progressive reforms. Back in Europe and the Middle East, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire would likely continue to just about limp on. Eventually both would collapse, with the British, French, Russians and possibly Germans supporting a revolt in Austria leading to its unification with Germany, as well as revolts by Balkan Slavs against the Hungarians and an Arab revolt against the Ottoman Empire. The latter would likely trigger a revolution in the Ottoman Empire that would bring Mustafa Kemal to power there.