 1914 Incident 
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This is a history of the years 1914 through 1929 of the timeline 1914 Incident.
The 1914 Incident
At the beginning of the 1914 Incident, Germany did not have a competent leader, and it was becoming increasing isolated from the other great powers. France had lost its territory of Alsace-Lorraine. Russia was lagging behind other nations in technology. Austria-Hungary was falling apart due to ethnic tensions. Britain didn't have any true allies in Europe. As tensions rose, a war between the great powers seemed to be inevitable. When Austria-Hungary's heir to the throne, Franz Ferdinand, was assassinated on June 28, 1914, by Serbian nationalists, Austria-Hungary sent an ultimatum to Serbia. Unacceptable, Serbia only agreed to some of the terms. Austria-Hungary then declared war on Serbia on July 28, 1914.
Following the string of war declarations, the war pitted Serbia, Russia, and France against Germany and Austria-Hungary. The first army movements began, as Austro-Hungarian soldiers invaded Serbia. Germany used its (unmodified) Schlieffen Plan to invade France, while Russia continued to mobilize. French armies began to invade Alsace-Lorraine, and the Belgians put up heavy resistance to invading Germans.
Since Germany considered the treaty protecting Belgium to simply be a piece of paper, they were not expecting any nation to come to Belgium's aid. However, many British politicians called to defend Belgium's neutrality. A vote in Parliament was narrowly unsuccessful in declaring war, and is the POD of this timeline. Instead, a moderate proposal, condemning Germany and giving aid to Belgium, was passed. Without British support, Germany entered French territory just before the end of August.
Likewise, France had also made large gains into Alsace-Lorraine. By early September, France had re-acquired the territory, and were entering Baden (the southwestern most Kingdom of Germany). Despite their gains, Germany had already made sizable gains in northeast France. Another problem was that, by early September, Russian troops were starting to arrive on the Eastern Front. Russia, facing little resistance, was able to occupy several parts of eastern Germany, and nearly reached Königsberg before the tide turned against them.
France had been lulled into a false sense of victory. When reports came in that Germany had almost reached Paris around September 10, French commanders, who were now reaching into Württemberg, panicked and withdrew to defend Paris. However, this was too late. By the time the first French reinforcements arrived, German forces had already surrounded Paris. The German government offered France a peace if they agreed to give present-day Benin to Germany, Tunisia to Italy, and most of present day Guinea to Austria-Hungary, as well as relinquish claims to Alsace-Lorraine. The rather merciful peace was accepted by France on September 16, though it was rather unpopular among the people.
With France kicked out of the war, attention now turned to Russia and the Balkans. Montenegro had declared war on Austria-Hungary in late August, and the Serbs were putting up heavy resistance. However, Austria-Hungary offered Bulgaria some Serbian land if they helped in the Balkan Front. Bulgaria accepted the deal, and entered the war. On October 22, Montenegro and Serbia jointly surrendered, and were annexed by Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria.
Meanwhile, Germany was sending huge amounts of its powerful army to fight the Russians in the Eastern Front. Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria also began to send their forces to the Eastern Front. By September 25, the Russian advance had been stopped, and a stalemate began. Though heavy casualties were incurred on both sides, on November 9, Russian lines were smashed during an offensive. The Central Powers pushed back the Russians, in a constant retreat, reaching Smolensk on December 14. Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Bulgaria signed a peace treaty with Russia in February 1915, giving peace in exchange for territorial concessions, with Congress Poland going to Germany, and Bessarabia going to Romania, who had agreed to remain neutral. Congress Poland officially became a member state of the German Empire in March 1915.
With all fronts closed, the war truly was over by Christmas, unlike OTL. This solidified the position of Germany as the most powerful nation of Europe. In addition, the aftermath of the war led to some democratic reforms in Russia, and growth of far-right and far-left groups in France (and Russia to a lesser extent). Germany also implemented some reforms to increase the power of the Reichstag. The Kaiser had also became more cautious in foreign policy, imagining the result of a possible defeat. Technology was also heavily invested in after the war, and somewhat of a cold war developed in technology, especially in offensive military technologies, such as superheavy war machines (like tanks).
Collapse of Austria-Hungary
The Collapse of Austria-Hungary is believed to be rooted in lack of reform and the rise of nationalist groups. In the lead up tot he collapse, Austria-Hungary had supported Greece and Bulgaria in a war against the Ottoman Empire, known as the Third Balkan War (occurring in late 1915), which was successful, making the Ottomans lose all of Thrace except for the European side of Istanbul. Serbs, Bosniaks, Croats, and other groups saw how an empire could be pushed away.
Franz-Joseph, who had been the Emperor of Austria since the 1860s, died in 1916. He was succeeded by Charles I, who tried to keep the empire together. He was ultimately unsuccessful. The first ethnic group to revolt was the Serbs. A declaration of independence on February 10 is accompanied by mass revolts and attacks against police. The army is quickly sent in, though many soldiers desert.
Bosnia and Montenegro declared independence the next day, followed by Croatia and Galicia later in the week. Smaller uprisings in Slovenia, Czechia, and Slovakia also occur, and the army is riddled by defections and desertions. Charles I is successful in coaxing Bulgaria, who has been suffering revolts themselves, into joining the war against Serbia. However, the Bulgarians are unable to successfully fight against the revolutionaries who are now being armed by Russia. On March 7, 1917, Hungary announces its withdrawal from the personal union. Three days later, on March 10, Hungary concedes independence to Serbia, Bosnia, Montenegro, and Croatia. Following a stalemate, where Galician revolutionaries are successfully able to hold off Austrian soldiers, Austria concedes independence to Galicia on April 4, and calls for a settlement.
The Congress of Budapest convened on May 2, 1917, to draw up new borders in the Balkans. It is agreed that the borders will be decided by ethnic group. Austria, Hungary, Czechia, Galicia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, and Montenegro all attend, as do Italy, Romania, and Bulgaria, attempting to gain territory. On May 30, a proposal is reached. Borders are to be divided roughly by ethnic group, with no exclaves. The drawn map looks vaguely similar to the Balkans in OTL 1919, though Hungary has significantly more territory, Austria has Sudetenland and more fringe territory, the country of Galicia exists, and several of the newer countries have less territory.
The deal was applauded by several world leaders, including Woodrow Wilson, then the US President, as well as previous Austro-Hungarian enemies, such as French Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau. This was not to last, however. On September 12, Austria, now limited to the territories of the German ethnic group, announced its intention to become a member state of the German Empire, with some terms. Most world leaders expected talks to fail.
Negotiations began on September 17. The Austrian government claims that Prussia has too much power, and as such, should be reduced. Supported by other member states of the empire (except Prussia), Austria demands that Hesse-Darmstadt be extended to include all of Hesse that is within Prussia, and that Hanover be recreated. Facing support from the other member states (Baden, Bavaria, Hesse-Darmstadt, Saxony, and Württemberg) and the citizens of Hesse and Hanover, Prussia agrees to do so, but only if Sudetenland becomes an imperial territory instead of remaining with Austria. Austria agrees to the resolution. Saxony, expecting to gain Sudetenland, demands that Prussia give back some land it took at the Congress of Vienna. Again, supported by the other member states, Prussia is pushed into accepting that half of its province of Saxony, as well as all of its provinces of Hanover and Hesse will be lost. The outcome of the merger talks are regarded as a landmark German policy, and a showing of increasing German, rather than Prussian, identity. The deal is signed on September 20. In addition, the two Reusses, Mecklenburgs, and Schwarzburgs are unified, and the Ernestine duchies are merged into either Saxony or Bavaria, decided by vote. However, Poland, a member state of the German Empire since 1915, does not receive any majority Polish territory from Prussia.
Meanwhile, the rest of Europe, expecting talks to fail, is shocked. France and Russia demand that the merger be cancelled. Germany and Austria refuse to do so. Hungary and Italy show support for the merger. France and Russia begin to mobilize their armies. In response, Germany does so as well. On September 22, the French government demands that Britain also threaten Germany, stating that Germany is a threat to the existence of the rest of Europe. Britain refuses to do so, sending back a scathing response. Due to this, Britain becomes rather isolated in European affairs, and remains neutral in many conflicts.
With the refusal of Britain, France and Russia began to demobilize their armies. By September 30, Germany had also demobilized, and a crisis has been averted, although there was still plenty of tension within Europe going into 1918.
The Balkan states remained surprisingly stable throughout the remainder of the 1910s, though they become a political battleground among Germany and Russia. Germany established an economic and military alliance with Hungary in early 1918, and later in the year begins to share technology. Russia asserted Serbia and Galicia as its allies, while Germany made an alliance with Hungary. Despite German efforts, most Slavic countries ended up in the sphere of Russia.
Germany tried to restore warm relations with Britain, but was largely unsuccessful. However, continued neutrality of Britain, at least in a Franco-German war, would be secured.
Roaring Twenties
The 1920s were, like OTL, a peaceful and prosperous decade. However, in the ATL, it expanded to more countries. Russia, Japan, and America developed the most during the period, and became nearly as powerful as Germany and Britain by the end of the decade. France did not struggle, and in fact its economy grew nearly as must as Germany's.
Russia, quickly modernizing, began to speed up in technological development. The end of serfdom and the introduction of a legislature in Russia gave more power to the people and promoted science. Leftists were elected to a majority each election, except the first. They were extremely popular. In 1923, a Communist Party was founded. They began to increase in size. By 1928, they controlled one third of seats, and the Social Democrats controlled another third. The two parties began to socialize the nation. This worried Tsar Nicholas II, but he died in 1929 before he could act. Nicholas succeeded by Tsarevich Alexei, who was happy to see to the change.
Meanwhile, as Russia turned increasingly left, France turned to the right. At first, the Democratic Republican Alliance, a right-wing party, began to win, displacing the left-oriented parties. They won the presidency in 1920. However, a more radical sect split in 1922, and began to win an increasingly large amount of control in the legislature. This fascist party promised revenge on Germany and a strong military to achieve that. The Fascist Party won the presidency and 45% of seats in the legislature in 1927. And so began the reign of Jean Hennessy, the leader of the party.
In America, the economic growth of the 1910s continued. Warren G. Harding was elected in a fairly close race, with Calvin Coolidge as his vice president. Like OTL, Coolidge became president after Harding's death in 1923. He was re-elected in 1924. After an economic slowdown in 1927 (due to worries about France and Russia) after fast growth in the mid decade, he successfully restarted growth by the end of his term and left a good legacy, allowing a third Republican to be elected. Herbert Hoover became president in 1929, and unlike OTL, there was no stock market crash. But the 1930s would prove to be a turbulent, but not disastrous, decade, especially with a soft landing. In addition, women won the right to vote in 1926.
The Social Democratic Party of Germany successfully reformed the electoral districts in 1921 to a proportional system, allowing them to take a strong majority of seats in the Reichstag. They began to return Germany to a slightly less interventionist state, to the protest of the Kaiser. They gradually lost some seats throughout the decade, but still retained a small majority in the 1927 elections.
Japan continued rising. Hirohito ascended to the throne, with an imperialist policy. More land was taken from China, and more colonies in the Pacific were created. By the end of the twenties, European powers were starting to worry about the power of Japan.
Britain, with no powerful allies in Europe, refused to pursue an alliance with France or Germany, the two countries trying to get Britain on their side. Instead, a hand was extended to the United States. More trade, and in 1928, the beginnings of a military alliance. This would play a large part in the wars of the 1930s.
The Ottoman Empire collapsed under ethnic pressure in 1925. A peaceful resolution was worked out, mediated by Europe, dividing the empire into several different nations according to ethnic group.
Thirties and the Great War
The Twenties had resulted in the establishment of two increasingly radical governments. One right-wing in France, and one left-wing in Russia. Despite the huge differences, the countries were intent on getting revenge on Germany. This is exactly what happened in the Thirties.
The pact between Germany, Hungary, and Italy remained alive. Italy was also no longer interested in betrayal, having gotten the territory it wanted. But a Slavic Pact, involving Russia, Czechia, Galicia, Slovakia, Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, and Montenegro is formed in 1930. This vast alliance of Slavic states becomes a force to be reckoned with. With France also in on the alliance, Germany is becoming increasing cornered, and is lucky to be able to keep Slovenia and even Albania neutral. Bulgaria and Hungary continue to remain its allies, however. What Germany needs is a pact with Britain, but remains unsuccessful.
See 1930-1959 (1914 Incident) for the next part of the timeline.