| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The 1948 United States presidential election was the 41st quadrennial presidential election. It was held on Tuesday, November 2, 1948. In one of the largest upsets in American history, Robert Wagner and the Progressive Union would launch a successful third-party insurgency campaign which would see them win a narrow victory against Democrat Charles Edison, who had been the frontrunner throughout the months leading up to the election. The major issues of the 1948 election were the rise of communism and the ongoing red terror, the fight for veterans' pensions, and poverty in the United States.
Background[]
Despite winning in a landslide in the 1944 Presidential Election, Robert Taft's popularity had begun to decline sharply following the end of World War 2 in 1946. This was largely due to the rise of Soviet Union which many people believed Taft had enabled, Taft openly opposing benefits in the GI bill, and domestic political upheaval such as the Strike Wave of 1946 and the 1947 Storming of the United States capital building which had occurred under Taft's watch.
Course of the election[]
Republican Nomination[]
Despite suffering nationwide in the polls and declining in popularity, Vice President Harold Stassen remained popular within the Republican Party. However, a significant portion of the Republican party were hostile towards Stassen and his social liberalism as well as a rejection of Taft's isolationism conservatism. The leader of this movement was Michigan Senator Arthur Vandenberg. Vanderberg, despite previously being an isolationist, had come to become one of the most interventionist members of the Republican Party following American entrance into the war. Vandenberg attacked Taft's post-war isolationist foreign policy as "weak and naive" and campaigned on greater US involvement on the world stage to combat international communism. Going into the convention in Syracuse, Stassen seemed to have a lead. However, Vandenberg emerged as the frontrunner during the first few ballots, but Stassen had overtaken him by the third ballot and would end up as the nominee by the 6th ballot. Stassen selected New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey as his running mate.
| Nominee | Running Mate |
|---|---|
| Harold Stassen
|
Thomas Dewey
|
Democratic Nomination[]
With big gains in the 1946 midterms, the Democratic Party going into the Atlantic City convention were energetic and excited. The frontrunner throughout this period was New Jersey Governor and 1944 running mate Charles Edison. Edison would remain popular due to his connections to the northeastern Democratic Party political machine as well as his name recognition as the son of the esteemed inventor Thomas Edison. Despite facing minimal opposition from Kentucky Senator Alben W. Barkley, Edison would secure the nomination on the second ballot, selecting popular Oklahoma Governor Robert Kerr as his running mate. In his acceptance speech, Edison emphasized the Democratic Party as the party of American values and decried both the spread of Communism abroad and ongoing domestic unrest. Edison's speech is often accredited as the speech which would solidify the Conservative hold over the Democratic Party and the rise of the New Right within the Democratic Party.
| Nominee | Running Mate |
|---|---|
| Charles Edison
|
Robert S. Kerr
|
Progressive Union Nomination[]
Continuing with efforts from 1944 onwards, the Progressive Union's efforts to distance themselves from socialism became more aggressive. In the 1948 party platform, the party changed its official colors from pink to green and adopted a foreign policy position of "combatting International communism". With large gains made in the 1944 and 1946 Congressional elections, political pundits and commentators had begun to treat the Progressive Union as a serious and viable political party. With Burton Wheeler's isolationism in 1944 and Wallace's embrace of socialism in 1940 both harming the party's viability, the Progressive Union would transform into an interventionist, social democratic party. This transformation, while successful in securing support from progressive Democrats and Republicans, would push away and alienate many of the socialist factions within the Progressive Union. Former 1940 nominee Henry Wallace would get support from the socialists and make a push to gain the nomination and retake the party from the more moderate factions. Despite Wallace's efforts, dark horse candidate Robert F. Wagner Jr., the son of New York Senator Robert F. Wagner, would secure the nomination by the 5th ballot. Wagner was considered a dark horse candidate throughout much of the campaign leading up to the convention, winning no primaries with his only prior elected office being a state Senator from New York. He would overtake Oregon Senator Wayne Morse in support from the moderate faction after Burton Wheeler would reluctantly endorse him over Morse and Wallace. Wallace and other socialist delegates would storm out of the convention following Wagner's nomination and would endorse Norman Thomas and the Socialist Party of the United States, which had recently broken away from the Progressive Union.
Idaho Senator Glen H. Taylor would be selected as Wagner's running mate in an attempt to appeal to rural farmers who proved pivotal in the Progressive Union's gains in the 1944 Presidential Election. Despite the selection, the Wagner/Taylor ticket would narrowly lose the state of Idaho during the election.
| Nominee | Running Mate |
|---|---|
| Robert F. Wagner Jr.
|
Glen H. Taylor
|
General Election[]
The General Election campaign largely put the Republican Party on the defensive, with Incumbent President Taft's staunchly conservative, small-government policies becoming unpopular in the turbulent post-war years of the United States. As a result, Stassen distanced himself from Taft during the campaign trial and instead campaigned as a moderate, hoping to gain support from social liberals and conservatives alike. However, Stassen was still largely associated with the Taft administration which damaged his campaign image and strategy. The Republican Party would ultimately lose progressives and social liberals to the Progressive Union and conservatives to the Democratic Party. As a result of this splintering of the Republican Party, the race would largely come down between the Progressive Union and the Democratic Party.
Edison campaigned on his credentials as a businessman, Governor, and the son of the famous inventor and business magnate Thomas Edison. He advocated for capitalism, policies to "foster business innovation", and also called for greater benefits to be given to Veterans. He subsequently attacked Wagner for his inexperience in politics, with his only prior experience being a state Senator from New York. He also accused the Progressive Union of promoting "class warfare and national instability" which would benefit the Soviet Union in the ongoing Cold War. Wagner, on the other hand, had run on his credentials of serving in the Second World War and therefore understanding the needs of the average veterans. He slammed the Democratic and Republican Parties for being "pro-corporations and anti-veterans". Wagner's campaign included promises of the repeal of the Sparkman-Hartley Act, expansion of Union Rights, sweeping veterans' benefits, and a "tough on communism" foreign policy. Wagner's campaign made inroads with African Americans, Veterans, and blue-collar workers. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party made inroads in rural communities which had voted for the Progressive Union in 1944.
During the leadup to the election, the Gallup polls had Wagner and Edison neck-in-neck with Edison having a slight lead and Stassen only slightly behind the two.
Outcome[]
In an upset victory, Wagner would narrowly edge out Edison in both the popular and electoral college vote and win the Presidency. Wagner would win the popular vote by roughly 1 million while only edging out the electoral college threshold by 3 votes. Edison would concede 4 days after the election while Stassen had conceded the night of the election. The popular vote to electoral vote ratio was very uneven, which made members of the 3 parties, and especially Republicans, critical of the institution.
Wagner was able to successfully implement the strategy of Burton Wheeler in 1944, bringing together a coalition of urban workers in the Northeast and steel belt while also holding onto some rural voters in the Midwest. Edison and the Democratic Coalition were able to make inroads with rural communities, resulting in several Progressive strongholds flipping, including Progressive Union running mate Glen Taylor's home state of Idaho.
See also:[]
Sources cited:[]
- “Breaking down Truman vs. Dewey - CNN Video.” Www.cnn.com, www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2016/03/21/truman-dewey-heavyweight-orig.cnn. Accessed 28 Jan. 2022.
- “The Election of 1948 | Harry S. Truman.” Trumanlibrary.gov, 2020, www.trumanlibrary.gov/education/presidential-inquiries/election-1948.
- Wikipedia Contributors. “1948 United States Presidential Election.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 5 Jan. 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_United_States_presidential_election.