1996 Presidential Election Alternative

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Republican Presidential Primaries, 1996
1996
Nominee		Dan Quayle	Bob Dole	Steve Forbes
Party		Republican	Republican	Republican
Home state		Indiana	kansas	New York
States carried		TBD	TBD	2
Popular vote		TBD	TBD	1,751,187
Percentage		TBD	TBD	11.41%

Moderate Republican U.S. Senator of Kansas and Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole was the front runner and was expected to win the nomination against underdog candidates such as the more conservative U.S. Senator Phil Gramm of Texas and more centrist U.S. Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania. Dole had significant name recognition as he was a two time presidential candidate, 1980 and 1988. Dole won the Iowa Caucus with only 26% of the vote. In the New Hampshire primary, populist Pat Buchanan upset Dole, as he came in second place. Dole, however, eventually won the nomination, becoming the oldest first-time presidential nominee at the age of 73 years, 1 month (Ronald Reagan was 73 years, 6 months in 1984, for his second presidential nomination).

Campaign

This was expected as Democratic President Bill Clinton was very unpopular in his first two years in office, eventually leading to the Republican Revolution. Following these 1994 midterm elections, many prominent candidates entered what would be a crowded field. However, as Clinton became more and more popular in his third year in office, many dropped out or decided not to run.

The fragmented field of candidates debated issues such as a flat tax and other tax cut proposals, and a return to supply-side economic policies popularized by Ronald Reagan. More attention was drawn to the race by the budget stalemate in 1995 between the Congress and the President, which caused temporary shutdowns and slowdowns in many areas of federal government service.

Going into the 1996 primary contest, Senate majority leader and former vice-presidential nominee Bob Dole was seen as the most likely winner. However, in the primaries and caucuses, social conservative Pat Buchanan received early victories in Alaska, Louisiana and New Hampshire, and Steve Forbes in Delaware and Arizona which put Dole's leadership in doubt. Publisher Steve Forbes also ran and broadcast a stream of negative ads. However, Dole won every primary starting with North and South Dakota, which gave him a lock on the party nomination. Dole resigned his Senate seat on June 11. The Republican National Convention formally nominated Dole on August 15, 1996 as the GOP candidate for the fall election.

Former U.S. Army Gen. Colin L. Powell was widely courted as a potential Republican nominee. However, on November 8, 1995, Powell announced that he would not seek the nomination. Former Secretary of Defense and future Vice President of the United States Dick Cheney was touted by many as a possible candidate for the presidency, but he declared his intentions not to run in early 1995. Then-Texas Governor George W. Bush was also urged by some party leaders to seek the Republican Party nomination, but opted against doing so.

Former Congressman and Cabinet secretary Jack Kemp was nominated by acclamation as Dole's running mate the following day. Other politicians mentioned as possible GOP V.P. nominees before Kemp was selected were Ohio Governor George Voinovich, Michigan Governor John Engler, and Texas Governor George W. Bush.

1996 Republican Primaries

As early as 1994, there was much speculation over who would be the Republican nominee for the presidency in the 1996 election. National opinion polls showed the Republicans leading the Democrats in approval by 11 percentage points and Preisdent Clinton's approval ratings averaged at around 41-44%. Most political analyts predicted a very close election, possibly the closest since the 1960 Presidential Election. Riding off the momentum gained by the Republican take-over of Congress in 1994, the follwoing candidates announced their intentions to seek the Republican nomination by May of 1995:

• Former Vice President of the United States, Dan Quayle
• Senate Majority Leader, Bob Dole
• United States Senator from Arizona, John McCain
• Former United Nations Economic and Social Council ambassador, Alan Keyes
• Conservative Columnist, Pat Buchanan
• Former Governor of Tennessee, Lamar Alexander
• Governor of California, Pete Wilson

National opinion polls showed that Dole was the national frount-runner and McCain and Buchanan were going back in forth for second place. Dan Quayle's campaign was in trouble, mostly for financial reasons, but he managed to finish fourth of fifth in most polls. By many political insiders Quayle was not seen as an "electable" candidate, mostly because of his connection with the Bush administration and several high-profile gaffes (such as when he spelled the word "potato" like "potatoe"). The first candidate in to resign from the race was Alan Keyes, who had a strong following from African-Americans in the party but was not showing up in most national polls. Most experts prediciting that Keyes would endorse either Dole or McCain, the two front-runners. However, when he withdrew from the race on November 6, 1995 he endorsed Quayle and made the maximum donation to his campaign.

The endorsement gained notable media attention and put the Quayle campaign in the spotlight, which helped him gain much needed support. Between November 1 and November 30, donations to the Quayle campaigned increased by almost 260%. Sensing a possible challenge from Quayle, the Dole campaign began attacking him on the campaign trail, trying to associate him with the failures of the Bush administration. Three major candidates, Dole, Quayle, and Buchanan, campaigned heavily in Iowa; McCain did not campaign in Iowa and instead focused heavily in New Hampshire.

On January 3, the date of the primary, polls in the state showed Dole and Quayle were neck-and-neck with Dole having outspent Quayle by almost a 2:1 margin. The following table shows the results of the Iowa Caucus in detail:

Dan Quayle	274,616 (26%)
Robert Dole	261,779 (24%)
Pat Buchanan	201,998 (19%)
John McCain	195,651 (18.5%)
Pete Wilson	64,740 (6%)
Lamar Alexander	30,985 (3.5%)
Other	28,048 (3%)

Statewide

1996 Republican primary and caucus results

		Bob Dole	Pat Buchanan	Steve Forbes	Lamar Alexander	Alan Keyes	Richard Lugar	Phil Gramm	Morry Taylor	Bob Dornan
February 12	Iowa Caucus	26%	23%	10%	18%	7%	4%	9%	1%	-
February 20	New Hampshire Primary	26%	27%	12%	22%	2%	5%	-	2%	-
February 24	Delaware (primary)	27%	19%	33%	13%	5%	5%	2%	-	-
February 27	Arizona (primary)	30%	27%	33%	7%	1%	1%	-	-	-
February 27	North Dakota (primary)	42%	18%	20%	6%	3%	1%	9%	-	-
February 27	South Dakota (primary)	45%	29%	13%	9%	4%	-	-	-	-
March 2	South Carolina (primary)	45%	29%	13%	10%	2%	-	-	-	-
March 3	Puerto Rico (primary)	98%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
March 5	Colorado (primary)	43%	21%	21%	10%	4%	1%	-	-	-
March 5	Connecticut (primary)	54%	15%	20%	5%	2%	1%	-	-	-
March 5	Georgia (primary)	41%	29%	13%	14%	3%	-	-	-	-
March 5	Maine (primary)	46%	24%	15%	7%	2%	3%	-	-	-
March 5	Maryland (primary)	53%	21%	13%	6%	5%	1%	-	-	-
March 5	Massachusetts (primary)	48%	25%	14%	8%	2%	2%	-	-	-
March 5	Rhode Island (primary)	64%	3%	1%	19%	-	3%	-	1%	-
March 5	Vermont (primary)	40%	17%	16%	11%	-	14%	1%	-	-
March 7	New York (primary)	55%	15%	30%	-	-	-	-	-	-
March 12	Florida (primary)	57%	18%	20%	1%	2%	2%	-	-	1%
March 12	Louisiana (primary)	48%	33%	12%	2%	3%	-	-	1%	-
March 12	Mississippi (primary)	60%	26%	8%	2%	2%	-	-	-	2%
March 12	Oklahoma (primary)	59%	22%	14%	1%	2%	-	-	-	-
March 12	Oregon (primary)	51%	21%	13%	7%	4%	1%	-	-	-
March 12	Tennessee (primary)	51%	25%	8%	11%	3%	-	-	-	-
March 12	Texas (primary)	56%	21%	13%	2%	4%	-	2%	-	-
March 19	Illinois (primary)	65%	23%	5%	1%	4%	1%	1%	-	-
March 19	Michigan (primary)	51%	34%	5%	1%	3%	-	-	-	-
March 19	Ohio (primary)	66%	22%	6%	3%	2%	1%	-	-	-
March 19	Wisconsin (primary)	53%	34%	6%	2%	3%	-	-	-	-
March 26	California (primary)	66%	18%	7%	2%	4%	1%	1%	-	1%
March 26	Nevada (primary)	52%	15%	19%	2%	1%	-	-	-	-
March 26	Washington (primary)	63%	21%	9%	1%	5%	-	-	-	-
April 23	Pennsylvania (primary)	64%	18%	8%	-	6%	5%	-	-	-
May 7	Washington D.C. (primary)	75%	9%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
May 7	Indiana (primary)	71%	19%	10%	-	-	-	-	-	-
May 7	North Carolina (primary)	71%	13%	4%	2%	4%	1%	-	-	-
May 14	Nebraska (primary)	76%	10%	6%	3%	3%	-	-	-	-
May 14	West Virginia (primary)	69%	16%	5%	3%	4%	1%	2%	-	-
May 21	Arkansas (primary)	76%	23%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
May 28	Idaho (primary)	66%	22%	-	-	5%	-	-	-	-
June 4	Alabama (primary)	76%	16%	-	-	3%	-	-	-	-
June 4	Montana (primary)	61%	24%	7%	-	-	-	-	-	-
June 4	New Jersey (primary)	82%	11%	-	-	7%	-	-	-	-
June 4	New Mexico (primary)	76%	8%	6%	4%	3%	-	-	-	1%