2004 United States presidential election (Double Collapse)

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2004 United States presidential election
November 2, 2004
	Presidential election results map. Blue denotes states won by Kerry/Gephardt, Red denotes those won by Bush/Cheney.
	President before election; George W. Bush; Republican Elected President; John Kerry; Democratic

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The 2004 United States presidential election was the 55th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 2, 2004. Democratic Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts defeated incumbent Republican President George W. Bush. This was a third successive election in which the incumbent president was defeated. Additionally, it was the second time an incumbent Republican lost re-election, with the first one being 1992. As of 2020, this is the most recent election in which a Republican president lost reelection. This was also the second time when a Bush family member lost reelection for President.

Bush and Cheney were renominated by their party with no difficulty. Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean emerged as the early front-runner in the 2004 Democratic Party presidential primaries, but Kerry won the first set of primaries in January and clinched his party's nomination in March after a series of primary victories. Kerry chose Gephardt, who had himself sought the party's 2004 presidential nomination, to be his running mate.

Bush's popularity had soared early in his first term during the start of the Second Arab Cold War and advocating "a cold war against Ba'athism" in 2001, but it had declined significantly by 2004. Foreign policy was the dominant theme throughout the election campaign, particularly Bush's handling of the cold war against Ba'athism. Domestic issues were debated as well, including the economy and jobs, health care, abortion, same-sex marriage and embryonic stem cell research.

Kerry would win the election by a margin of 25 electoral votes, winning 311 electoral votes in total and 46.5% of the popular vote. Bush would carry 226 electoral votes and 42.7% of the popular vote. In congress, the Democrats gained seats in the Senate.

Background[]

George W. Bush won the presidency in 2000 after the Supreme Court's decision in Bush v. Gore remanded the case to the Florida Supreme Court, which declared there was not sufficient time to hold a recount without violating the U.S. Constitution.

Just eight months into his presidency, he later declared the Second Arab Cold War against Ba'athism, suddenly transformed Bush into a stragetic and diplomatic president since Harry S. Truman. Bush's approval ratings surged to near 90%.

Nominations[]

Democratic Party nomination[]

Main articles: John Kerry 2004 presidential campaign, 2004 Democratic Party presidential primaries

John Kerry	Dick Gephardt
2004 Democratic Party ticket
for President	for Vice President

U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (1985–2005)	House Minority Leader (1999–2003)
Campaign

Before the primaries[]

By summer 2003, Howard Dean had become the apparent front-runner for the Democratic nomination, performing strongly in most polls and leading the pack with the largest campaign war chest. His strength as a fund raiser was attributed mainly to his embrace of the Internet for campaigning. The majority of his donations came from individual supporters, who became known as Deanites, or, more commonly, Deaniacs. Generally regarded as a pragmatic centrist during his governorship, Dean emerged during his presidential campaign as a left-wing populist. Senator Joe Lieberman, a liberal on domestic issues but a hawk on the Cold War against Ba'athism, began his candidacy in early 2003 but failed to gain traction with liberal Democratic primary voters.

In September 2003, retired four-star general Wesley Clark announced his intention to run for the Democratic nomination. His campaign focused on themes of leadership and patriotism; early campaign advertisements relied heavily on biography. His late start left him with relatively few detailed policy proposals. His first few debates showed this weakness, although he soon presented a range of position papers, including a major tax-relief plan. Nevertheless, Democrats did not flock to support his campaign.

In sheer numbers, John Kerry had fewer endorsements than Dean, who was far ahead in the superdelegate race going into the Iowa caucuses in January 2004. However, Kerry led the endorsement races in Iowa, New Hampshire, Arizona, South Carolina, New Mexico, and Nevada. His main perceived weakness was in his neighboring state of New Hampshire and nearly all national polls. Most other states did not have updated polling numbers to give an accurate placing for Kerry's campaign before Iowa. Heading into the primaries, Kerry's campaign was largely seen as being in trouble, particularly after he fired campaign manager Jim Jordan. The key factors enabling it to survive were when fellow Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy assigned Mary Beth Cahill to be the new campaign manager, as well as Kerry's mortgaging his home to lend the money to his campaign (while his wife was a billionaire, campaign finance rules prohibited using one's personal fortune). He also brought on the "magical" Michael Whouley who would be credited with helping bring home the Iowa victory the same as he did in New Hampshire for Al Gore in 2000 against Bill Bradley.

Republican nomination[]

Main articles: George W. Bush 2004 presidential campaign, 2004 Republican Party presidential primaries

George W. Bush	Dick Cheney
2004 Republican Party ticket
for President	for Vice President

43rd President of the United States (2001–2005)	46th Vice President of the United States (2001–2005)
Campaign

Bush's popularity rose as a stragetic president, and he was able to ward off any serious challenge to the Republican nomination. Senator Lincoln Chafee from Rhode Island considered challenging Bush on an anti-war platform in New Hampshire, but decided not to run in December 2003.

On March 10, 2004, Bush officially attained the number of delegates needed to be nominated at the 2004 Republican National Convention in New York City. He accepted the nomination on September 2, 2004, and retained Vice President Dick Cheney as his running mate. During the convention and throughout the campaign, Bush focused on two themes: defending America against Ba'athism and building an ownership society. As well, Bush used populist rhetoric in an attempt to rally voters behind him. The ownership society included allowing people to invest some of their Social Security in the stock market, increasing home and stock ownership, and encouraging more people to buy their own health insurance.

General election campaign[]

Campaign issues[]

Bush focused his campaign on national security, presenting himself as a decisive leader and contrasted Kerry as a "flip-flopper." This strategy was designed to convey to American voters the idea that Bush could be trusted to be tough on terrorism while Kerry would be "uncertain in the face of danger." Bush also sought to portray Kerry as a "Massachusetts liberal" who was out of touch with mainstream Americans (just as his father did with Michael Dukakis in the 1988 election). One of Kerry's slogans was "Stronger at home, respected in the world." This advanced the suggestion that Kerry would pay more attention to domestic concerns; it also encapsulated Kerry's contention that Bush had alienated American allies by his foreign policy, and that Kerry would better manage foreign policy affairs and issues better than Bush.

According to one exit poll, people who voted for Bush cited the issues of terrorism associated with Ba'athism and traditional values as the most important factors in their decision. Kerry supporters cited Bush's handling of cold war against Ba'athism, the economy and jobs, and health care.

Over the course of Bush's term in office, his extremely high approval ratings immediately following the beginning of the Second Arab Cold War steadily dwindled, rising only during stragetic against Iraq in spring 2003 until December that same year.

Between August and September 2004, there was an intense focus on events that occurred in the late-1960s and early-1970s. Bush was accused of failing to fulfill his required service in the Texas Air National Guard. However, the focus quickly shifted to the conduct of CBS News after they aired a segment on 60 Minutes Wednesday, introducing what became known as the Killian documents. Serious doubts about the documents' authenticity quickly emerged, leading CBS to appoint a review panel that eventually resulted in the firing of the news producer and other significant staffing changes.

(Under progress)

Presidential debates[]

Three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate were organized by the Commission on Presidential Debates, and held in the autumn of 2004. As expected, these debates set the agenda for the final leg of the political contest. Libertarian Party candidate Michael Badnarik and Green Party candidate David Cobb were arrested while trying to access the debates. Badnarik was attempting to serve papers to the Commission on Presidential Debates.

**Debates among candidates for the 2004 U.S. presidential election**
No.	Date	Host	City	Moderators	Participants	Viewship (Millions)
P1	Thursday, September 30, 2004	University of Miami	Coral Gables, Florida	Jim Lehrer	President George W. Bush Senator John Kerry	62.4
VP	Tuesday, October 5, 2004	Case Western Reserve University	Cleveland, Ohio	Gwen Ifill	Vice President Dick Cheney Former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt	43.5
P2	Friday, October 8, 2004	Washington University in St. Louis	St. Louis, Missouri	Charles Gibson	President George W. Bush Senator John Kerry	46.7
P3	Wednesday, October 13, 2004	Arizona State University	Tempe, Arizona	Bob Schieffer	President George W. Bush Senator John Kerry	51.1

Notable expressions and phrases[]

Kerry's campaign had many slogans to describe his run for the Presidency, while Bush's campaign never officially announced a campaign slogan. However, Bush's campaign made several bus tours bearing de facto slogans. These include the "Yes, America Can" Bus Tour and the "Heart and Soul" Bus Tour, which used the slogan "Moving America Forward".The 2004 Republican National Convention in New York City featured the slogan "A Safer World and More Hopeful America".

Kerry's campaign slogans were;

"A stronger America begins at home."
"A safer, stronger, more secure America."
"The real deal" — often printed on circular campaign gear.
"The courage to do what's right for America"
"Together, we can build a stronger America"
"A lifetime of service and strength"
"Let America be America again" — the title of a poem by Langston Hughes
"A new team, for a new America"
"Stronger at home, respected in the world"
"America deserves better"
"Hope is on the way to save America!" — chanted by Gephardt and his supporters during his speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention
"Help is on the way!" — chanted by Kerry and his supporters during his speech as the 2004 Democratic National Convention

Results[]