2020 Commonwealth of Susquehanna National Elections (1983: Doomsday)

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‹ 2015 2020 Commonwealth of Susquehanna National Elections (1983: Doomsday) 2025 ›
Commonwealth of Susquehanna National Elections, 2020
June 9, 2020
Nominee		Tim Holden	Bob Casey Jr.	Nathan Gerance
Party		Republican	Democratic	Libertarian
Home state		Schuylkill	Wyoming	Schuylkill
Running mate		Lynda Schlegel Culver	Marty Flynn	Robert Billhime
Electoral vote		1
States carried		1
Popular vote		1
Percentage		1
Nominee		Brian Hoffman	Maryanne Petrilla
Party		Conservative	Progressive
Home state		Sullivan	Columbia
Running mate		Matthew Karchner	Jay Sweeney
Governor before election Lou Barletta Republican Elected Governor TBD TBD

The 2020 elections in the Commonwealth of Susquehanna will be held June 9th, 2020. There will be elections for the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Senators, and Representatives, as well as local elections in Montour, Sullivan, Luzerne, and Wyoming Counties.

Primaries

The primaries occurred September 11th, 2019. All three major parties are expected to run multiple candidates to decide the candidates for various federal offices, including the gubernatorial seat. Unlike prior to Doomsday, primary elections are all held the same day nationally.

Republican Primary

With Lou Barletta ineligible to run, the party was forced to find a new candidate with the split of the Conservatives and libertarians after the 2015 elections and the strong turnout in 2017 and 2018, the party was seen as fairly well centered. Three individuals declared candidacy, which necessitated a primary election. The party had 25,116 registered members, and a turnout of 67.5%.

• Lynda Schlegel Culver: Secretary of Veterans Affairs, as well as former Northumberland County Commissioner, and school board member for Northumberland County School Board. She declared candidacy in mid January, 2019.
• Tim Holden: Current Lieutenant Governor, as well as former Schuylkill County Commissioner and borough councilman for Shenandoah. Surprising political analysts, he declared candidacy and launched an election campaign in early September, 2017. This gave him a significant lead on his opponents.
• Kurt Masser: Secretary of Transportation and former Northumberland County Commissioner. An exploratory committee was launched in late August, 2018 and candidacy was declared in early February, 2019.

With the endorsement of Lou Barletta, Tim Holden won the election, however results were closer than expected. Upon his acceptance speech, it was declared that the runner up, Lynda Schlegel Culver was selected as his running mate.

Results

Candidate	Home County	Occupation	Votes	Percentage	Candidacy Filed	Photo
Lynda Schlegel Culver	Northumberland	Secretary of Veterans Affairs	6,041 / 17,506	34.51%	January 16th, 2019
Tim Holden	Schuylkill	Lieutenant Governor	7,962 / 17,506	45.48%	September 5th, 2017
Kurt Masser	Northumberland	Secretary of Transportation	3,125 / 17,506	17.85%	February 9th, 2019
Ineligible/Blank/Other	Various	N/A	378 / 17,506	2.16%	N/A

Democratic Primary

The Democratic Party held primaries to decide the gubernatorial candidate. They are seeking to capture the governorship for the first time since the mid 1990's. As of early 2018, two candidates have announced an intention to run for the position. The party had two candidates, requiring a primary. There were 21,527 registered Democrats at the primaries, with a participation rate of 72.9%.

• Bob Casey Jr.: Chairman of the Public Defenders Office and previously a Representative from Wyoming County. He launched an exploratory committee in August of 2018, and declared candidacy in late January, 2019.
• John Yudichak: Secretary of Infrastructure and Public Development, as well as having previously served as a Senator and Representative of Luzerne County, and county commissioner. He declared candidacy in mid-December, 2018.

Bob Casey, Jr. won the election with over 66% of the popular vote. His opponent, John Yudichak was a conservative Democrat and certain circles were concerned about differentiating from the Republican Party.

During Casey's victory speech he announced Marty Flynn, a Senator from Luzerne County, as his running mate.

Results

Candidate	Home County	Occupation	Votes	Percentage	Candidacy Filed	Photo
Bob Casey, Jr.	Wyoming	Chairman of the Public Defenders Office	10,403 / 15,693	66.29%	January 28th, 2019
John Yudichak	Luzerne	Secretary of Infrastructure and Public Development	5,219 / 15,693	33.26%	September 5th, 2017
Ineligible/Blank/Other	Various	N/A	71 / 15,693	0.45%	N/A

Libertarian Primaries

The Libertarian Party held primaries to decide the gubernatorial candidate. The previous candidate, David Argall has declined to run again, decided two runs for governor having been enough. Three candidates have declared an intention to run, triggering a primary. There were 7,964 Libertarians registered at the primaries, with a participation rate of 75.1%.

• Nathan Gerance: Current Representative of Schyulkill County, former County Commissioner from Schuylkill County, and former Mayor of Ringtown. He declared candidacy in early June, 2019.
• Ryan McGlynn: A member of the borough council for Shickshinny. He declared candidacy in early December, 2018.
• Ronald Powlus: a former quarterback for Bloomsburg University (1996-2000) and the Danville Steelers (2011-2012). He declared his candidacy in early July, 2019, only a few months before the primaries.

Nathan Gerance won the three way race with over half the vote. He selected Robert Billhime, Wyoming County Commissioner, as his running mate.

Results

Candidate	Home County	Occupation	Votes	Percentage	Candidacy Filed	Photo
Nathan Gerance	Schuylkill	Schuylkill County Representative	3,125 / 5,980	52.25%	June 8th, 2019
Ryan McGlynn	Luzerne	Shickshinny Borough Councilman	2,363 / 5,980	39.51%	December 5th, 2018
Ronald Powlus	Federal District	Football Coach	435 / 5,980	7.28%	July 3rd, 2019
Ineligible/Blank/Other	N/A	N/A	57 / 5,980	0.96%	N/A

Conservative Primaries

The Conservative Party primaries were held to decide between two candidates, who would head the ticket. With the far right elements of the Republican Party and the Unionist Party merging, the primary was expected to be a telling sign as to the direction the party would move in. There are 3,266 Conservatives eligible to participate in the primaries, with a turnout of 58.6%.

• Matthew Karchner: Secretary of the Department of Defense and former county commissioner of Columbia County. Announced his launch of an exploratory committee in early April of 2018. Officially announced his candidacy nearly a year later in late March, 2019.
• Brian Hoffman: current Sullivan County Commissioner and former borough councilman of Sonestown. Declared his candidacy in mid-May, 2019.

Brian Hoffman's victory in the primary was seen that the party was moving away from the Republican Party platform to a more pro-reunification stance. However, to reduce the chance of party defections, Matthew Karchner was selected as his running mate.

Results

Candidate	Home County	Occupation	Votes	Percentage	Candidacy Filed	Photo
Matthew Karchner	Columbia	Secretary of Defense	1,573 / 3,266	48.16%	March 18th, 2019
Brian Hoffman	Sullivan	Sullivan County Commissioner	1,596 / 3,266	48.87%	May 11th, 2019
Ineligible/Blank/Other	N/A	N/A	97 / 3,266	2.97%	N/A

Progressive Primaries

The Progressive Party will be holding primaries in the counties where the party is on the ballot, and caucuses in all other counties. Only one candidate has announced official candidacy, and it is unknown if she will see a challenger. There are 2,783 Progressives eligible to participate in the primaries, with a turnout of 85.8%%.

• Maryanne Petrilla: Chairwoman of the Department of Education and former Berwick School District school board member. She declared her candidacy in early August, 2018 a few days after leaving the Democratic Party to join the Progressive Party.

Maryanne Petrilla was the only candidate to file for the Progressive primary. Several other candidates considered challenging her, but due to her position, it was decided against. A secondary primary was held to decide her running mate, where Jay Sweeney, Colley Township Auditor, defeated three other candidates.

Results

Candidate	Home County	Occupation	Votes	Percentage	Candidacy Filed	Photo
Maryanne Petrilla	Columbia	Secretary of Education	2,061 / 2,387	86.34%	August 3rd, 2018
Ineligible/Blank/Other	N/A	N/A	326 / 2,387	13.66%	N/A

Gubernatorial Election

The general election is scheduled for June 9th, 2020, with the Republican, Democratic, and Libertarian candidates having received ballot access. The Conservative and Progressive parties each have automatic access in approximately half the counties.

Senate Election

All 14 seats in the Senate are up for reelection. The candidates are elected in a top-two election, where the two candidates with the most votes win seats.

Susquehanna has looked to potentially shift the elections to function more similar to the former US Senate elections. However, this will require a constitutional amendment.

Prior to the 2020 elections, there were eight Republicans, four Democrats, and two Libertarians. The Republican Party needs to capture one more seat to gain a supermajority.

Political pundits have expected some changes in the composition of the Senate. At risk seats include both Senators from Luzerne County, who are both Democrats. Early polls show there is a 70% chance of at least one seat flipping, and a 45% chance of both seats flipping.

Additionally, there is a possibility of one seat in Sullivan County flipping from the Republican Party to the Conservative Party. With the rise of the Conservative Party in Sullivan County has put a seat at risk. If this occurs, the Republican Party (and Conservative Party if they remain in a coalition) will capture a supermajority in the Senate.

House of Representatives Election

All 35 House seats will be up for reelection in 2020. The previous elections took place in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Prior to the 2020 elections, the House was composed of sixteen (16) Republicans, eleven (11) Democrats, four (4) Libertarians, two (2) Conservatives, one (1) Progressive, and one (1) independent.

Political analysts have labeled several districts as toss-up. However, three Democratic seats, two Libertarian seats, one Progressive seat, and the one independent seat are all listed as at-risk for flipping to another party.

While the Republican Party holds a supermajority currently in a coalition with the Conservative Party. It is possible that the party captures enough seats (two [2] seats) to regain this without a coalition. The Democrats would need to capture an additional seven (7) seats, and the Libertarians would need twice as many as the Democrats to capture control of the House, an unlikely prospect.

Debates

With the collapse of television, and limited resources as a means to campaign, candidates oftentimes utilize debates as a means to spread their message about the platform and goals of each candidate. The only positions which require debates are the governorship and lieutenant governorship, with all other seats having voluntary debates. Oftentimes, this means debates are only held in highly competitive districts.

Primary Debates

Each party set the requirements for candidates to qualify for debates. These may vary, with a range of signature, funding, or poll outcomes being utilized to a certain a qualification.

The Republican and Democratic parties each held three primary debates, with qualifying requirements becoming more stringent as they progress. Oftentimes this means by the last debate, the top two candidates are the only ones permitted to participate. The first and second debates were held in Bloomsburg and Hazleton, respectively, while the thirst rotates between cities. For 2020, the third location was held in Sunbury.

The Libertarian Party hosted two debates, with the first round permitting all candidates to participate and the second round, only the top three. The first debate was held in Shenandoah at the party national headquarters, while the second rotates between county level party headquarters. For 2020 the second debate was held in Danville.

The Conservative and Progressive parties hosted the fewest debates, each party only holding one if multiple candidates are running. If a single candidate is running, the parties do not hold debates, but replace them with town halls. Both the Conservative Party and Progressive Party rotates debate sites between the county or local level parties. For 2020 the Conservative debate was held in Bloomsburg and the Progressive town hall was held in West Hazleton.

General Election Debates

An independent advisory board sets the threshold for candidates during the general election. It is composed of three Republicans, three Democrats, one Libertarian, and two people from either a minor party or independent. Three debates are held, with site locations being similar to the layout of the Republican and Democratic parties debate system. The first two debates are held in Bloomsburg or Hazleton, rotating the debate position, while the third moves between the county seats of the remaining counties. For 2020, the third election will be held in Shenandoah.

Projections and Polls

Political analysis to at the various newspapers and radio stations have each held various polls and set up projections based on previous election performance, public opinion polling, public opinion on policy, and public appearance of the individual individual candidates.

Gubernatorial Race Projections

Each newspaper; the Daily Item, the Press Enterprise, and the Standard-Speaker; release staggered polls, one before the primary, one six months before the general elections,, and one a month prior to the general elections.

Daily Item

Polling error is +/- 5%

	Republican	Democratic	Libertarian	Conservative	Progressive	Other/Undecided
Carbon	49%	36%	2%	1%	0%	12%
Columbia	44%	39%	5%	4%	1%	7%
Luzerne	38%	21%	8%	5%	1%	27%
Montour	62%	25%	2%	1%	0%	10%
Northumberland	51%	38%	4%	0%	0%	7%
Schuylkill	31%	24%	35%	0%	1%	9%
South Luzerne	41%	38%	3%	0%	0%	18%
Sullivan	35%	13%	1%	42%	0%	9%
Wyoming	30%	47%	12%	0%	7%	8%

Press Enterprise

Polling error is +/-3%

	Republican	Democratic	Libertarian	Conservative	Progressive	Other/Undecided
Carbon	45%	38%	3%	1%	0%	13%
Columbia	39%	37%	9%	5%	2%	8%
Luzerne	44%	32%	3%	6%	0%	15%
Montour	53%	27%	4%	6%	1%	9%
Northumberland	46%	39%	5%	1%	0%	9%
Schuylkill	38%	26%	41%	1%	3%	9%
South Luzerne	42%	37%	4%	2%	1%	14%
Sullivan	36%	21%	1%	36%	0%	6%
Wyoming	36%	43%	4%	1%	8%	8%

Standard-Speaker

Polling error is +/-5%

	Republican	Democratic	Libertarian	Conservative	Progressive	Other/Undecided
Carbon
Columbia
Luzerne
Montour
Northumberland
Schuylkill
South Luzerne
Sullivan
Wyoming

Senate Race Projections

Projections indicate estimated seats won. Carbon, South Luzerne, and the Federal District do not elect senators (Carbon and South Luzerne have senators appointed).

Daily Item

	Republican	Democratic	Libertarian	Conservative	Progressive	Other
Columbia	1	1	0	0	0	0
Luzerne	2	0	0	0	0	0
Montour	2	0	0	0	0	0
Northumberland	2	0	0	0	0	0
Schuylkill	0	0	2	0	0	0
Sullivan	1	0	0	1	0	0

Press Enterprise

	Republican	Democratic	Libertarian	Conservative	Progressive	Other
Columbia
Luzerne
Montour
Northumberland
Schuylkill
Sullivan

Standard-Speaker

	Republican	Democratic	Libertarian	Conservative	Progressive	Other
Columbia
Luzerne
Montour
Northumberland
Schuylkill
Sullivan

House Race Projections

Daily Item

	Republican	Democratic	Libertarian	Conservative	Progressive	Other
Carbon
Columbia
Luzerne
Montour
Northumberland
Schuylkill
South Luzerne
Sullivan

Press Enterprise

	Republican	Democratic	Libertarian	Conservative	Progressive	Other
Carbon
Columbia
Luzerne
Montour
Northumberland
Schuylkill
South Luzerne
Sullivan

Standard-Speaker

	Republican	Democratic	Libertarian	Conservative	Progressive	Other
Carbon
Columbia
Luzerne
Montour
Northumberland
Schuylkill
South Luzerne
Sullivan

Election Results

Governor/Lieutenant Governor Election

Party	Governor	Lieutenant Governor	Notes
Republican Party	0 / 1	0 / 1	Currently hold the Governorship
Democratic Party	0 / 1	0 / 1	Have not won the Governorship since 1994
Libertarian Party	0 / 1	0 / 1	First election as a major party
Conservative Party	0 / 1	0 / 1	First Appearance on the Ballot
Progressive Party	0 / 1	0 / 1	First Appearance on the Ballot
Other Candidate	0 / 1	0 / 1	Various Write-In candidates, to be listed on ballot the candidate must be endorsed by a party
Ineligible/Blank	0 / 1	0 / 1	Majority blank or not filled in

Senate Elections

Party	Senate Prior To Election	Senate After Election	Seat Changes
Republican Party	8 / 14	0 / 14
Democratic Party	4 / 14	0 / 14
Libertarian Party	2 / 14	0 / 14
Conservative Party	0 / 14	0 / 14
Progressive Party	0 / 14	0 / 14
Other Candidates	0 / 14	0 / 14

House of Representatives Elections

Party	House Prior To Election	House After Election	Seat Changes
Republican Party	16 / 35	0 / 35
Democratic Party	11 / 35	0 / 35
Libertarian Party	4 / 35	0 / 35
Conservative Party	2 / 35	0 / 35
Progressive Party	1 / 35	0 / 35
Other Candidates	1 / 35	0 / 35