2023 Etholiad y Cynulliad (Welsh History Post Glyndwr)

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Etholiad y Cynulliad
All 173 seats to the Cynlliad (Ty Isod y Senedd)
26th January 2023
		First party	Second party	Third party
Leader		Adam Price	Rhoswen ferch Caradoc,	Tomos Bowen
Party		Plaid Gwerinwr Cristnogol	Ymlaen y Ddraig	Plaid Gwerinwr Cymdeithasol
Leader since		2013	2021	2020
Leader's seat		Rhos ac Rhufonig	De y Mers	Gorllewin Caerodor
Last election		43 Seats (23.2%)	34 Seats (17.3%)	22 Seats (11.8%)
Seats before		43	34	22
Seats after		41	34	29
Seat change		-2	No Change	+7
Popular vote		1,629,905	1,528,424	1,150,571
Percentage		21.8%	20.4%	15.4%
		Fourth party	Fifth party	Sixth party
Leader		Dafydd Preece	Gruffyd ap Iago	o Aneirin ap Rhun
Party		Y Blaid Werdd	Plaid Eryr Gwyn	Plaid Sosialaidd
Leader since		2019	2020	2019
Leader's seat		Aberperyddon	Gogledd Senghenydd	Blaenau Gwent
Last election		25 Seats (14.2%)	3 Seats (3.5%)	18 Seats (10.9%)
Seats before		25	3	18
Seats after		19	19	16
Seat change		-6	+16	-2
Popular vote		853,175	731,102	629,146
Percentage		11.4%	9.8%	8.4%
Ymlaen y Ddraig: 34 seats   PG Cymdeithasol: 29 seats   Y Blaid Werdd: 19 seats   Plaid Sosialaidd: 16 seats   PG Cristnogol: 41 seats   Plaid Eryr Gwyn: 19 seats   Y Blaid Gatholig: 14 seats   Plaid Comiwnyddol: 2 seats

Background to the Senedd Elections

The government of Adam Price in 2018 started off strongly. In control of both Senedd Houses with majorities in each (albeit a majority of 1 in the Ty Isod), Canghellor Price led an ambitious government looking at social reforms.

Events across the border in England however continued to dominate domestic Welsh politics. The rising influence of the far right in England (the Reform Party & the radicalised Conservative Party) trickled across the border into the Welsh kingdom, and in similarity to many countries across Western Europe; the far right in Wales saw a surge in polls.

The impact of COVID and then the Russian invasion of Ukraine had the effect of slamming Wales into a recession and the early hopes of the Price government came to a crashing halt.

The ever ambitious Plaid Gwyrdd pushed the Price government towards more green policies, whilst the Plaid Catholig tried to temper these moves with its more traditionalist agenda.

By late 2022 the government was in crisis. The tensions between the Green Party & the Catholic Party ministers had brought the government close to collapse with the result that the king was forced to order an early election.

The 2023 Campaign

King Llewellyn formally ended the governments’ term of office on the 25^th November 2022. With the Ty Isod now in abeyance, governance transferred to the Ty Uchaf with the Gwas-Ystafell Senedd, Seisyll ap Gwion Cantor now acting as Yr ail Ganghellor and forming a temporary government until the conclusion of the Cynulliad election.

Plaid Gwerinwr Cristnogol from the outset took a lead in the polls with Price looking to become the first back to back Canghellor since Alun Wynn Howells in the 1990s. The main story however, was the rise of Plaid Eryr Gwyn. The general rise of right wing politics across Western Europe had seen a rise in the fortunes of a party long seen as a political joke. Under the populist leadership of Gruffyd ap Iago, the party had seen its support rise into double digits and at one poll in early 2022 had the party on a national vote of approaching 15%.

By the time of the election that surge had fallen back slightly but the party was made up of young energetic voters and it resonated especially in the valleys of the south. The more traditional Plaid Catholig saw its vote shrink as voters saw it as too old-fashioned.

The one surprise in the election was the performance of Plaid Gwerinwr Gymdeithasol (Social Democratic Party). They had seen their political performance dip since the early 1990s when they were in government with Plaid Sosialaidd and under their previous leader, Stephen Kinnock, had sunk to their worst result at the 2018 election where they only secured 22 seats. Since 2020 a new leader, Tomos Bowen, had revitalised the party and his solid, humorous performances in the leaders debates saw the party’s fortunes rise.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine saw both Plaid Sosialaidd and Plaid Comiwnyddol slump in the polls with all other parties able to use their inability to openly criticise Putin’s attacks to punish the Welsh left/far left.

Parties Contesting the Election (right to left by political spectrum)

• Plaid Eryr Gwyn (White Eagle Party) - Far right
• Y Blaid Gatholig (Catholic Party) - Right wing party
• Plaid Gwerinwr Cristnogol (Christian Democrat Party) - Centre right party
• Plaid Ymlaen y Ddraig (The Dragon Leads) - Centrist party
• Plaid Gwerinwr Cymdeithasol (Social Democrat Party) - Centre left party
• Y Blaid Werdd (Green Party) - Environmental party
• Plaid Sosialaidd (Socialist Party) - Left wing party
• Plaid Comiwnyddol (Communist Party) - Far left party

Electoral System

For seats in the Cynulliad the Aelod y Cynulliad’s (AC’s) are elected by a mixture of First Past the Post (FPTP) constituencies and via a Party List system with members elected via the Hare-Niemeyer method. Following the unsatisfactory system used in 2018, the List system was amended for the 2023 election. The Ty Isod now mirrored the Ty Uchaf in using the eight electoral regions, Rhanbarth y Gogledd, Rhanbarth Canol, Rhanbarth y Gorllewin, Rhanbarth y De Orllewin, Rhanbarth y De, Rhanbarth y De Ddwyrain Canol, Rhanbarth Dwyrain and Rhanbarth y Haf.

Every voter has two votes. One vote for the FPTP seat where a named individual is voted for and another for the List Seat. For the List Seat, the voter casts for the Party they want to represent them and then they can rank that parties candidates in the order they would like to see elected. When determining who is elected, first the number of seats for a given party is determined. Once the number is arrived at, the Single Transferable Vote for the candidate list is computed and the appropriate numbers are elected according to voter preference.

Election Night – 26th Jan 2023

During polling day, the exit polls were consistently predicting that the PGCr would maintain its lead over the other parties, but they were also predicting a massive upturn in votes for Plaid Eryr Gwyn. As the results started to trickle in it was seen that the PG Cym were also having a good election, with the party gaining another 3 FPTP seats, but the story of the early evening results was Plaid Eryr Gwyn securing seven FPTP seats including Gogledd Caerdydd  and Glyn Rhondda.

Ymlaen y Ddraig ran a solid campaign but not spectacular and its results were firmly within the expected range. Both Y Blaid Werdd & Gatholig saw setbacks in the constituency voting with both parties losing seats.

and Plaid Werdd were running up good results from the constituency seats though there were no major shocks. Plaid Sosialaidd continued to suffer electorally give their dominance in the previous decade.

At the end of the night the PGCr were the single biggest party with 20 FPTP seats, up 2 from the last election, with YYD in second place with 13 seats. The PG Cym were up to 12 seats.

The counting then moved to the morning for the List Votes.

Results

Party		Votes	%	FPTP Seats	List Seats	Total Seats	+/–
	Plaid Gwerinwr Cristnogol	1,629,905	21.8	20	21	41	-2
	Ymlaen y Ddraig	1,528,424	20.4	13	21	34	NC
	Plaid Gwerinwr Cymdeithasol	1,150,571	15.4	12	17	29	+7
	Y Blaid Werdd	853,175	11.4	7	12	19	-6
	Plaid Eryr Gwyn	731,102	9.8	7	12	19	+16
	Plaid Sosialaidd	629,146	8.4	7	9	16	-2
	Y Blaid Gatholig	523,653	7.0	4	10	14	-6
	Plaid Comiwnyddol	274,154	3.7	0	2	2	-6
Total		7,475,224	100	70	104

The results came in by lunchtime on the 28^th January 2023 and saw Plaid Eryr Gwyn the clear winner on the night in terms of seats gained, winning an additional 9 seats on the 2018 election. Only they, the YYD and the PG Cym saw any gains in the List AC’s.

With the seats all now accounted for the coalition building could begin. As the largest party, the PG Gristnogol began to canvas other parties for their support in creating a coalition. Plaid Eryr Gwyn very quickly indicated that they would be willing to be the junior coalition partner, and Y Blaid Gatholig, less willingly, indicated they would take a part on the government benches. This coalition however only accounted for 74 seats, 13 seats short of a majority.

As a result, the king was required to ask the next largest party, Ymlaen y Ddraig, if they could command a majority of the Cynulliad.

The next five weeks saw intense negotiations but a coalition gradually emerged. The PG Cymdeithasol, celebrating a good election having secured 29 seats, were willing to be the junior partner to YYD. Y Blaid Werdd were a harder party to negotiate with, but eventually, some of their key manifesto commitments were adopted and they joined the coalition.

This still left the potential coalition government short of an absolute majority, having only 82 seats. As this was still more than PG Gristnogol could command, the king invited Rhoswen ferch Caradoc, leader of YYD to form a government.

During this period the Plaid Sosialaidd approached the government seeking a place within the coalition. Y Blaid Werdd were initially unwilling to accept the Socialists into government, but the PG Cymdeithasol leadership managed to convince Rhoswen ferch Caradoc that as the very smallest partner of the coalition, the Socialists could not demand too much.

Tomos Bowen was appointed the Ganghellor Eilaidd and cabinet positions allocated according to the number of seats to members of the four parties. With such a broad coalition, many political analysts were predicting the government to collapse before its five year term was up.

The king gave his consent to the formation of the new government on the 20^th March 2023 with Cymru’s first ever female Canghellor taking up her place in Palas Caerdydd.