What if the Germans had somehow decided not to send the Zimmmermann Telegram, thus preventing the US from entering World War 1?
1914-6: World War 1 proceeds the same way as in OTL, up to December 1916. Then, Kaiser Wilhelm II decides to withhold the Zimmermann Telegram because signs of instability begin showing up in Russia.
February 1917: A revolution breaks out in Russia. Without the Americans bribing them with a loan to stay in the war on the Allied side, the Russian Provisional Government created by the revolution opens peace negotiations with Germany and the Central Powers.
July 1917: The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk is signed (after the Germans threaten to resume hostilities), ending Russian participation in World War 1 and freeing up German troops for the Western Front, as well as granting the German military abundant natural resources in western Russia. In the treaty, various Russian territories in Eastern Europe are ceded to Germany as puppet states, and the Caucasus is demilitarised. Finland also gains independence as part of the treaty, while Romania gains Bessarabia despite still being at war with the Central Powers. The Russians grumble, but prefer to have peace.
June- August 1917: The communist Bolsheviks try three times to overthrow the Provisional Government, but they are crushed and finally flee into exile.
November 1917: The communist Bolsheviks try a fourth time to overthrow the Provisional Government, which finally decides to finish them once and for all, executing their leader Vladimir Lenin.
August 1917- February 1918: The German Autumn Offensive pushes deep into France and the Allies suffer their greatest crisis of the war, with the French government being placed under high pressure to surrender. Without American reinforcements as in OTL, the French capitulate and begin peace negotiations. In the resulting Treaty of Strasbourg, Belgium and some French border territories are annexed by Germany, as well as a few (not all) French African colonies, terms which the French don't really see as half bad. The reparations are kept at a modest amount, unlike the OTL Versailles reparations, and the French army is only modestly reduced. With the French having made a separate peace and the Germans offering white peace, the British decide to accept the German offer as French authorities are prepared to force them out of France (which would break up the Entente cordiale) if they don't accept. However, the Arab Revolt and Anglo-French advances in the Middle East continue.
August 1917- February 1918: With Russia finally out of the war, Romania surrenders to Bulgaria, resulting in the Treaty of Craiova. Southern Dobruja is ceded to Bulgaria while Austro-Bulgarian claims over Serbia are finalised. This allows the Austrian army to divert troops to the Italian front while Greece signs white peace with Bulgaria.
October 1917- November 1918: The Austrian army regroups for a final assault on Italy, but the entire empire then collapses due to the various ethnic groups struggling for independence, before any significant advances can be made. Italy and Japan make white peace with Germany, followed by the Ottoman Empire surrendering to Britain and France on October 30, ending World War 1. Chaos and anarchy begin a five-year reign in the former Austro-Hungarian Empire, bringing it to a bloody end. As for Serbia, they regain independence from Austria following the collapse, although they don't regain Macedonia from Bulgaria.
1919: The Irish War of Independence starts in early January, eventually leading to the Partition of Ireland on 3 May 1921, and the Irish Civil War caused by it. Meanwhile, with World War 1 over, the global economy booms and the world financial center becomes New York City, marking the United States' emergence as a major power.
1920: The Treaty of Constantinople is signed, dividing up the Ottoman Empire's Arabian territories between Britain and France. The leaders of the Arab Revolt are angered by this, as the British and French had promised a single unified Arab state in return for their support against the Ottomans. The new Turkish government, set up by a coup, is also angered as the treaty gives Britain, France and Greece unfair amounts of control over their internal affairs as well. The Arabs are placated by the British and French giving them significant autonomy in their new Arabian colonies, but the Turks begin the Turkish War of Independence, which lasts until 1923 as in OTL, resulting in the Treaty of Ankara, by which the Republic of Turkey is set up.
1922: With Italy in chaos after the end of World War 1, a former socialist named Benito Mussolini takes control of the country, saying only he can restore law and order. He gradually dismantles all of the existing democratic institutions within Italy, and in 1925 gains the title Il Duce (meaning "The Leader").
1923: With German-occupied Eastern Europe sufficiently stabilised, German troops move into former Austrian territories, with by now are populated by medieval-like principalities and duchies fighting for control. Serbian, Italian, and Romanian troops also join in the so-called "Scramble for Austria", but they only take their respective ethnic lands, ie. South Tyrol, Trieste, and Dalmatia for Italy and Transylvania for Romania. Serbian troops are considerably successful at first, but then they get beaten back by a regional power and only annex a little bit of land for their country. All in all, most former Austrian territories are occupied by German forces.
1925: After two years of conquering duchies and betraying friendly principalities, the Germans finally manage to subdue most of the former Austrian Empire. However, the Croato-Bosnian Empire (the aforementioned regional power that defeated Serbia) remains independent and they sign the Treaty of Ragusa, which guarantees Croato-Bosnian independence while Germany reorganises the rest of the former Austrian Empire.
1926: The Treaty of Vienna is signed, granting Czechia, Slovakia, and Hungary independence (as German puppet states) while German ethnic lands like Austria and the Sudetenland are annexed by Germany. Galicia is divided between the German puppet states of Poland and Ukraine.
1928: Germany and France sign an agreement to readjust their national borders according to ethnic borders. Germany laters purchases some British and French colonies in Africa and even Asia.
1929: The Wall Street Crash happens as in OTL. Britain and France are not hit as hard due to the vast resources in their colonies, and neither is Germany due to the vast resources in its puppet states and colonies.
1931: Japan invades Manchuria as in OTL, for the same reasons as in OTL. Meanwhile in Russia, the Russian Fascist Party, led by Konstantin Rodzaevsky, begins to gain support due to Russia's economic troubles and public hatred of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. In Spain, the monarchy is overthrown and an unstable republic is established.
1933: On the 5th quadrennial election of the Russian Republic, the Russian Fascist Party wins after gaining a majority of the votes, through fearmongering, racism (especially against Jews), and possibly corruption. They then form a coalition government with the Conservatives, but swiftly move to ban and destroy all opposition parties. A new constitution is then drafted, creating the Russian State. Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany then announces an ambitous plan to update German military equipment and develop new strategies to counter the Russian threat. This worries Britain and France, who think that Germany might be planning to take more of their colonies and that the 'Russian threat' is just an excuse.
1935-6: Italy invades Abbysinia, beginning the Second Italo-Ethiopian War and the Abbysinian crisis. The Croato-Bosnian Empire then takes advantage of this and invades Italian possessions on the Dalmatian coast, which they had already planned to conquer anyway before the Italians beat them to it and subdued the weak Republic of Dalmatia. Unable to bring back enough troops from Abbysinia to fight Croato-Bosnia, Mussolini cedes Dalmatia to them. This is seen as a minor setback, however, as Italian troops storm the capital of Abbysinia, Addis Ababa, and bring them to their knees.
1936: The Spanish Civil War starts between the Republican government and Nationalist rebels. Russia and Italy start aiding the Nationalists. Meanwhile, Rodzaevsky uses the Abbysinian crisis as a smokescreen to remilitarise the Caucasus. Fearing that Russian troops there might be targeting their country, the Turkish government grants the Russian army and navy military access (but only in wartime), just in case. Britain and France then finally begin seeing the Russians as actual threats, and decide to try improving relations with Germany. They also begin updating their equipment and expanding their armies.
1938: Russia, Italy, and Japan create the Fascist Tripartite Pact, also known as the Axis. Russia then demands Germany to return their Ukrainian puppet state to Russian rule, so that Russia will not have to import as much food. Rodzaevsky's demands sound reasonable, so the Kaiser agrees after a referendum (which is obviously rigged, since the Kaiser was welcomed by thousands of Ukrainians to free them from Russia in 1917). Nonetheless, Rodzaevsky is then allowed to take control of the land. He then demands the southern half of the German Baltic puppet state, Baltenland, in order to gain a Baltic port. Kaiser Wilhelm is unsure at first, but his allies somehow persuade him that none of them are ready for war yet, so he reluctantly agrees once again, while also increasing military spending... again.
1939: After the southern half is ceded to Russia, Baltenland falls into chaos due to being cut off from Germany. Rodzaevsky then moves to occupy and annex all of Baltenland. Suddenly, it is obvious that giving in to Rodzaevsky's demands will not work, as Kaiser Wilhelm had always understood. Following this incident, the three countries decide to guarantee Finland's independence, which soon brings them into war against Russia, starting World War 2. Following the Russian invasion of Finland on October 15, Sweden invades the Aland Islands on November 1, and Finland soon capitulates. Russia annexes most of Finland, and Sweden only takes the Aland Islands, also declaring themselves neutral in the war thereafter. Meanwhile, the Russian army invades the German puppet state of Belarus and swiftly annexes it. They then attack Romania and annex Bessarabia, making the rest of it a puppet state.
1940: Rodzaevsky launches a massive offensive, but only manages to occupy eastern parts of the German puppet states of Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary. German strategists develop the blitzkrieg, and the Russians are pushed back. Russian troops manage to occupy East Prussia for a few weeks, but they are soon surrounded and captured. However, just as it seems Rodzaevsky's regime is doomed, Italy joins the war, invading Austria and southeastern France. German and French defenses manage to hold out long enough for troops to return from the Eastern Front, but then the Russians use blitzkrieg against the Germans, having stolen it through spies. Russian troops then proceed to:
- Reconquer Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary
- Assist their Italian allies in Austria
- Push into East Prussia
- Engage German troops in Bohemia-Moravia (Czechia)
Most of the German military flees to Britain and France (along with all the Jews in Germany, especially the renowned Albert Einstein), and even Kaiser Wilhelm himself plans to leave Berlin despite already being in ill health. Italian troops also manage to hold onto some parts of southeastern France.
1941: Kaiser Wilhelm and his son, Crown Prince Wilhelm, escape to the German embassy in London, leaving a few junior officers to surrender to the Russians. The Kaiser then dies on June 4, and his son is crowned as the new Kaiser. Defensive lines are hastily established, but Paris is ultimately captured. Rodzaevsky offers peace to the French government, which agrees. Despite fascist Russian puppet states being established in their homelands afterwards, German and French troops in Africa remain loyal to their rightful governments-in-exile, creating Free France, led by French general Charles de Gaulle, and Free Germany, led by Kaiser Wilhelm III. Meanwhile, after the Fall of France, Mussolini sends his troops to attack Greece via Albania, which they conquered in 1939. The invasion is a complete failure, forcing Rodzaevsky to have to invade Bulgaria and Croato-Bosnia to give his army access to Greece and prevent Italy from being defeated. In December, Japan invades European colonies in Asia, while also bombing Pearl Harbor and invading the Philippines, bringing the USA into the war. After US president Franklin D. Roosevelt declares war on Japan, Rodzaevsky declares war on the US to protect Japan. Russian troops then attempt to invade Alaska, but the US Coast Guard defeats them.
1942: With most of Europe under the boot of fascism, Rodzaevsky tries to invade Britain and end the war in Europe. However, despite the Russian air force outnumbering the RAF, they are ultimately beaten back. Rodzaevsky then decides to aid his Italian allies in Libya against the British in Egypt, but the Italian army fails him massively. Russian troops also invade Norway for resources and naval bases.
1943: The Allies finally push Axis troops back into Italian Libya, and the US Navy begins defeating the Japanese Imperial Navy in the Pacific. Later, American troops land in eastern Siberia, defeating all Russian resistance. The Japanese then stretch their naval forces even further trying to break the US supply lines to the Siberian front.
1944: The Allies take Libya, then later proceed to invade the Italian-held island of Sicily, causing Mussolini to be deposed. The new Italian government proceeds to switch sides, causing Rodzaevsky to have to invade northern Italy and create a puppet state governed by Mussolini. Italy then falls into a chaotic civil war. Meanwhile, US troops continue advancing into Siberia and attack Japanese-occupied Manchuria. The island of Sakhalin is then invaded, causing the Japanese to panic.
1945: British and Chinese forces, supported by Free French, Free German, and American troops, finally force all remaining Japaneses resistance on the Asian mainland to surrender. In Europe, Allied troops land in Greece and northern France, while the US Army starts a massive offensive to reach the Ural Mountains. After that, the Allies launch a 4-pronged offensive to liberate Europe and finally defeat Rodzaevsky, who commits suicide in his Moscow bunker, after which most of Russia's puppet states surrender to the Allies. In late October, a few weeks before the first winter snow, atomic bombs are dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, causing Japan to surrender, ending World War 2. The French and German governments-in-exile are restored, along with all the other Allied governments-in-exile.
1946: Russia is split into American and German occupation zones. Italy is split into British, French, and German occupation zones, while Britain receives Italian Libya and the part of Italian East Africa formerly known as Italian Somaliland. The remainder of Italian East Africa, consisting of Abbysinia and the former Italian Eritrea, regains independence as Ethiopia. Japan's home islands are completely occupied by the US, but their conquests throughout East Asia are returned to their rightful (mostly colonial) owners, and Korea gains independence. German puppet states are also reestablished, but with greater freedoms under the new Kaiser.
1947: India gains independence, sparking a decades-long wave of decolonization that all but destroys the great European empires forged over centuries of blood, war, death, and destruction. Decolonization, combined with the knowledge of the horrors suffered by Jews in Russian concentration camps, gradually makes the European powers less racist over time.
1948: German scientists construct an atomic bomb with information from the Manhatten Project, which was actually a US-Allied project, and not solely funded by the US government. British and French scientists also get the bomb not long after them. Meanwhile, when the British government proposes a plan for British Palestine to be partitioned between a new Jewish state and a new Arab state (the UN does not exist in this timeline), the Arabs accept it, unlike in OTL.
1951: American troops leave Japan while Italy holds free elections. German troops leave Russia, which also holds free elections, but the American occupation zone remains occupied due to the abundant natural resources there. This triggers a crisis which contributes to a schism within the Allies. Meanwhile, Kaiser Wilhelm III dies and is succeeded by his second eldest son, who becomes Kaiser Ferdinand I (Wilhelm III's eldest son, who would have been Wilhelm IV, had already died in 1940).
1952: The US tests its first hydrogen bomb.
1954: Alaska and Hawaii become US states due to the worsening relations between America and their European allies raising concerns over the two former territories' safety.
1955: The Montgomery Bus Boycott begins in December, quickly gaining international attention as European media rush to cover "American hypocrisy", further straining relations between Europe and the US following the first European hydrogen bomb tests.
1957: The Civil Rights Movement begins after the massive success of the Montgomery Bus Boycott. Due to the now-poor relations with the US, the European powers begin (secretly) funding it under the alias Heinrich Davies-Pujol. Decolonized French and British colonies join post-colonial Commonwealths headed by their former colonial masters, and a German Commonwealth is also created in Eastern Europe. Relations improve considerably when President Eisenhower signs the Civil Rights Act of 1957 into law.
1958: The Chinese Civil War ends 9 years later than in OTL with a Nationalist victory despite the overwhelming public support for their Communist enemies.
1959: A revolution breaks out in Cuba, but without Soviet influence, the rebels set up a capitalist democracy similar to the USA. They still nationalise the many American businesses in Cuba, but they resell it to local Cuban corporations immediately afterwards.
1960-3: Non-violent civil rights protests take over the US, with sit-ins and freedom rides becoming a frequent occurence, finally culminating in the March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom, better known simply as the March on Washington. The closing speech delivered by Martin Luther King, Jr. becomes an icon of the march.
1964: The Civil Rights Act of 1964, which would have established the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) to help prevent workplace and employment discrimination based on race, color, sex, religion or national origin, fails to pass in Congress due to evidence of European funding of the Civil Rights Movement being uncovered days before the vote. The discovery leads to many US government officials accusing the European powers of deliberately supporting rebellion within the US and worsens US-Europe relations, stoking fears of a Third World War. The Civil Rights Act of 1957 is then repealed.
1965: The American occupation zone in Russia is admitted as the 51st US state: Siberia. The European powers then accuse the US government of colonialism.
1965-7: Further European funding fails to reach the Civil Rights Movement, while police brutality increases against the protesters. Nonetheless, under the leadership of Martin Luther King, they refrain from retaliation against the government.
1968: Martin Luther King is assassinated, sparking mass protests across the US. Other civil rights leaders call for a rebellion, saying that King's methods have failed. Soon, millions of African-Americans take up arms against the white government, seizing gun shops and turning them into supply depots. However, some white people join the rebellion as well, due to the disdain they feel towards the police, the government, and the brutality they've shown towards the blacks. They feel that even rebels deserve to be treated fairly.
1969: Mixed-race rebel groups continue rising up all across the continental US. The US government receives mass international condemnation for not allowing civil rights, while foreign troops amass along the borders. The USA seems to be close to collapsing any time soon.
1970: Russian, Mexican, and Canadian troops enter American territory to assist the rebels. In Siberia, a secret underground rebellion is discovered and welcomes the Russian army, with some even forming volunteer infantry brigades. The US Army suffers many defeats, and US President Richard Nixon is soon captured.
1971: The Treaty of Washington is signed. Mexico receives the area known as the Mexican Cession, the Southeastern US becomes the United Republic of Racial Equality, Canada receives Alaska, Russia receives Siberia, and Japan receives Hawaii. The remainder of the US is demilitarised and is forced to adopt a new constitution with complete legal equality for all citizens regardless of race, color, sex, religion or national origin. The presidential oath of office is also changed to promise protection of equal rights. The US nuclear arsenal is split between Mexico, Canada, and Russia.
1979: After roughly 8 years of peace, trouble starts brewing in the Middle East as a fundamentalist Islamic Revolution breaks out in Persia and creates the Islamic Republic of Iran.
1980-8: Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein attacks Iran, thinking that their recent revolution has weakened them. He is proven wrong, as the war eventually ends in a stalemate.
1990: Due to the recent war with Iran, Iraq has gained a massive national debt, and is not helped by the fact that oil prices are dropping. Thus, they accuse their tiny neighbour Kuwait of slant drilling, stealing their oil, and deliberately lowering oil prices to damage the Iraqi economy. Iraqi troops storm Kuwait and the international community condemns them, but little practical action is taken to reverse the act of aggression besides economic sanctions.
1994: Kaiser Ferdinand I dies and is succeded by his grandson as Kaiser Friedrich I.
1994-5: Due to their invasion of Kuwait having gone unopposed, Iraq invades Saudi Arabia. The international community is extremely alarmed, since an Iraqi conquest of Saudi Arabia would give Saddam Hussein control over more than half of the world's oil reserves. Not wanting to have to fund an oppressive dictatorship with their oil addiction, many Western nations commit their troops to defeating Iraq. Iran then decides to help by attacking Iraq in retaliation for.the previous war. Kurdish rebels are encouraged to rise up, and Turkey joins the coalition as well as Syria. Despite being surrounded on all sides by enemies, just like the US in 1970, Saddam somehow still expects to win the war. Needless to say, he is eventually defeated, Kuwait is freed, and Iraq gets a new democratic government. Saddam and his aides are executed for their crimes against humanity.
1996: Following the defeat and execution of Saddam Hussein, the question of Kurdish independence is raised. A very obvious majority wins in an independence referendum, so Iran, Turkey, and the new Iraqi government comply with the results and give Kurdistan independence, not wanting to end up like previous oppressive governments.
Nothing significant happens, and 9/11 doesn't happen since the Afghan War doesn't happen in this timeline.
Nothing significant happens.