German troops signing the surrender treaty at Brest-Litvotsk
In OTL, the Imperial Russian Army was marked with serfdom, unprofessional army with 1800s equipment. New strategy didn't adapted by Nicholas II after his father died. So, what if the Russian realized the advantages of armed forces modernization? What if new strategy was introduced. What if autocracy was partially abolished? How would a Russian WW1 victory changed the course of Europe?
Well, the main concentration here was the Russian development of constitutional monarchy. Began of compulsory education, develop new weapons and strategies, introducing the air forces, Western organization of military and parliamentary system, which Nicholas II refused. However, if Sergei Witte and Stolypin had real power, then what happened? (see the Point of Divergence part). Family intervention and royal power were increased.
Background
Russian's economy was improved time by time (unlike in OTL, which Russian's economy only developed in 1900's) in 1840's. The Russian leadership began to modernize the country which had been fallen behind the West in technology.
It's 1895, then something happened. Nicholas II, after years of hesitation of reforms of military and political system, slowly began to reform. Army officers has more salary, political structure transferred from a unitary autocratic monarchy to a centralized federal constitutional monarchy. Council of Ministers gradually had more power. Republican factions began to satisfied with the King.
The first opposition political party was introduced. It was named "Socialist Party of Russia", merged from the Socialist Revolutionaries and RSDLP. It was headed by Viktor Chernov, who seemed to be acceptable from moderate Marxist like Lenin to fully social democrats like Kerensky. In 1910 election, they had 40.5% votes, which led them have 225 seats in the State Duma. The newly centralized opposition poses a threat to German military, which saw Russia as a threat to some main positions like Western Poland, Konisburg, etc.
Those tanks were Russian made with the support of British and the French. It would be effective for the war against Germany since it is much more compact compare to A7V.
Then, in 1910, the German military organized a coup against the Kaiser, forced him to go to Britain. Then they introduced a declaration which to extend colonies, even if they had to go to a big war. This is a war of extermination.
The Kaiser, phoned the Russian Prime Minister Alexander Kerensky to declare war against the military dictatorship immediately. Kerensky replied that the Russian did not ready for the war until 1914. The Kaiser had to wait. The next day, a State Duma referendum to introduce of budget increasing for military. Overwhelmingly voted "Yes", which was 65% of the vote. 2nd Modernization process of military began. The Russian began to introduced armored car, which literally put some armor in a Ford Model T, and built a machine gun.
Council of Developing Military Technologies began to actually mass produced an armored car, which is a Austin-Omsky armored car. They also bought 350 Renault FT from France, which was a Russia ally. New armoured brigades began to united with close artillery division. The British also introduced new tank, called Medium.
The world was on high alert. With increasing military budget from UK, Russia, United States of America, France (Allied Powers) and Germany, Austro-Hungary Empire, Bulgaria and Ottoman Empire led to the potential of a war. Ottoman Empire wouldn't know that the British troops had armored vehicles France, Russia followed suit.
Finally on 1916, the war began. German troops took the advantage and began to attack at Western Front. But Russia's attack on the Eastern Front would saved France and Britain from the fall of Paris. At the Asia front, the government of Ottomans decided to attack Caucasus, which led to full mobilization of professional troops and reserve troops. It also see the first big aerial attack on major cities in the Eastern Front. Although it was leaning to the Germans during the first half of the war due to Russian's unpreparedness during the war, it was Russian logistics and strategy planning and better equipment supplies led to a Victory, began the battle of Reichstag, led to the return of Kaiser Wilhelm II as a much more liberal Kaiser than his previous self. It would led to the reduction of political influence of the armed forces, a big-scale reparation (although not as big as in OTL), and emergence of moderate right-wing forces in Central Europe.
Points of Divergence
Politics
- Japan and Russia are more friendly towards each other, especially since Grigory Semyonov had negotiated for economic alliance with Japan, officially made Japan a de facto 1st Bloc member.
- Treaty of Versailles is more lenient, so no aggressive policy from Germany or Japan and even Italy or no ascension of the Fascism and National Socialism. However, the rise of moderate left (social democrats and socialists) would reshaped the world, although colonialism remained.
- Balkan countries, and also Germany, Czechoslovak-Hungarian Federation signed a official declaration of forming the 3rd Bloc. (Compare to OTL when Germany was divided between Warsaw Pact and NATO)
- Cold War was officially started much later, somewhere in 1965-67 and it was ended in 1993, only 33 to 35 years due to less conflict about ideologies and interests.
- Nuclear weapons are used less frequently as a threat.
- League of Nations was redesigned to be something like the United Nations, although it still kept its' name.
- Instead of fleeing to Switzerland, Vladimir Ulyanov changed his ideology, and became an important speaker of the Socialist Party, led by his friend, Alexander Kerensky.
Warfare and battles
- Vietnam War didn't happen, instead it became Union of Indochina (at French part) and Burma (English part) after the US-Russia/1st Bloc won the Cold War (although it had insurgency in Rohingya)
- WW2 didn't happened, although the new generations of generals such as Georgy Zhukov, Bernard Montgomery or Dwight Eisenhower concentrated on "armor warfare" and air force reorganization.
- Nuclear warfare was predicted nearly as exactly as OTL.
- Less military exercise at the border near to opponents' territories.
- Chemical warfare was banned, and all the nations agreed with and followed that.
Economy
- The United States' economy was much better due to good management of the economy by the government, the dollar still much more valuable than today.
- Russia's economy became 2nd after the British and French lost the Cold War, the Ruble became international currency for oil trade.
- British and Ireland Isles' economy are much better than in OTL due to having a good amount of labour force and technology (after the Cold War, but also because of lack of bombardment).
- German's economy became the 3rd largest in the world due to the Treaty of Versailles is more lenient which allow the country to take some strategic industrial base of Austria as a part of allowance of unification.
- Chinese economy still growing fast, but it only became the 4th largest in the world due to Europe's population growth was faster in TTL, afraid of Chinese domination.
- Southern Europe's economy developed much more efficiently due to a common new policy of Josip Broz Tito for the economy in general. Internal affairs was respected instead of marked by invasion, coup attempts. However, some communist like Nicolae Ceausescu would remained in power.
Politicians' ideology
Due to Russians' Eastern Front victory, individuals' ideologies would be radically change, since Ulyanov/Lenin had removed Marxism from his ideology, and adapt a new form of socialism. There's also significant change on Labour Party members' ideology, due to the sustainable British domination of their colonies. Some would change to conservatism.
| Name of the politician | OTL Ideology | TTL Ideology |
|---|---|---|
| Harold Wilson | Social democratic | Conservatism |
| Harry S. Truman | Conservatism, Colonialism | Anti-colonialism |
| Dwight D. Eisenhower | Conservatism | Centrism |
| Nikita Khrushchev | Marxist-Leninist | Social democratic |
| Leonid Brezhnev | Marxist-Leninist | Conservatism |
| Mikhail Gorbachev | Social democratic | Centrism |
| Josip Broz Tito | Marxist-Leninist -> Titoist | Social democratic |
| Wolfgang Schwanitz | Marxist-Leninist | Nationalist |
| Erich Mielke | Marxist-Leninist | Strasserist/Nationalist |
| Gheorghe Apostol | Marxist-Leninist -> Reformist communism | Social democratic |