Alternative History
Alternative History
2018 Brazil presidential election, 2022 (President Dukakis) 2026 ›
Brazil Presidential Election, 2022
Octuber 2, 2022 (First Round)
Octuber 30, 2022 (Second Round)
Eduardo Leite Presidente (2023) (cropped) Alberto Fernández y Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva en São Paulo 2022 (3) (cropped)
Nominee Eduardo Leite Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Party PSDB PT
Home state Rio Grande do Sul Pernambuco
Running mate Alessandro Vieira Gleisi Hoffman
States carried 17 11
Popular vote 69,696,334 59,568,421
Percentage 53,92% 46,08%
Election 2022 of Brazil in Second Round (President Dukakis)
Presidential election results map.

The Brazil presidential election, 2022 it will be the 9th presidential election in the country to be held after the promulgation of the Federal Constitution of 1988. This was the first time since the 2006 election that Aécio Neves was not a candidate for president.

The titular president, Aécio Neves, was ineligible to run for the third term as stated in the 1988 constitution, with that, his candidate for succession, Eduardo Leite was chosen to run for the presidency of Brazil. Like Leite, 4 other candidates contested the election, the main opponent and anti-government candidate being the former vice president Lula, considered the ''only one to be able to defeat the toucan candidate''.

On October 31, 2022, after a result considered to be ''polarized'' and ''tight'', Leite was elected president of Brazil with 53.9% and 69,6 milions votes, with Leite the most voted candidate in the history of the elections. The inauguration of President-elect Eduardo Leite is scheduled to take place on March 15, 2022, with Leite being the 36th president of the country.

It was the first election since 1998 where there was a victory for a pro-government candidate, something that failed in the 2006 elections for Marco Maciel and 2014 for Fernando Haddad.

Background[]

Aécio Neves Government (2015 - 2023)[]

Aécio Neves discussing in meeting

Neves in at the ministerial meeting in 2019

The Aécio Neves Government began on March 15, 2015, with the proposal to ''improve Brazil''. Neves became the second PSDB president to take office, the same thing that happened before with FHC in 1999.

The first term of aécio Neves was known for the possible scandal with the JBS and other scandals that occurred before his government, which sparked protests from opponents across the country. In government, Brazil hosted the 2016 Olympics in São Paulo, where que Neves participated in the opening and some events in the tournament that made him famous.

Aécio Neves' second term began on March 15, 2019 thanks to the victory of his re-election in the 2018 elections. His second term was marked by several economic booms in the country due to political changes. At the beginning of 2020, Brazil became the third largest economy in the world, surpassing Japan (now the fourth). In August 2021, the Bolsa Família created, replaced by Brasil Auxiliary by President Alencar in 2008, was renamed Brasil Auxílio in Neves' government. Neves stated that ''it was FHC who provided the aid'' and that ''there was no point in changing his name''.

Neves' 8-year government will end on March 15, 2023. In the last survey, its approval reached 77% in the Datafolha survey. in Agust 2021.

Economic boom, 2019 and 2020[]

GDP of Brazil 2015-2021 (President Dukakis)

GDPof Brazil between 2015 to 2021

On September 19, 2019, Brazil experienced great economic growth, the country was ranked among the 5 largest economies in the world and became an international attraction worldwide. Thanks to the aécio growth campaign in 2016, Brazil only had this result in November 2019. Thanks to the economic growth program of aécio started around 2016. The Program achieved results precisely in 2019 with the great economic growth.

In January 2020, as the second economic boom following. In this economic growth, the Brazilian GDP reached 7 trillion, surpassing Japan and becoming the third largest economy in the world. After the reach, the president made a national statement and soon used references from Brazil as the third largest economy. The government's approval of Neves reached 83% in the Datafolha survey, being the highest approval in the history of a president, higher than the 75% of alencar in 2010.

Thanks to the great growth of the Brazilian GDP, Brazil has become one of the world references and one of the most important. In 2020, it joined the G8 (now G9).

Corruption scandal involving the PSDB and ''Lava Jato''[]

During the 8 years in office of Aécio Neves, his party was involved in 4 scandals and 2 national ones. It is the second party with the most corruption scandals since redemocratization.

In October 2020, federal deputy Sérgio Moro decrees a new and second draft law to create Lava Jato where he would investigate the scandals. Moro said that the car wash would ''solve the problems'' and ''end corruption''. The proposed law was accepted on January 19, 2021 by the STF. Since January 2021, the PSDB has been involved in 4 scandals, one of them being the minister of culture Carlos Alberto de Oliveira who was involved in money laundering and was soon tried and arrested on August 14, 2021. President Aécio Neves stated that he has no involvement in the corruption allegations that the opposition talks about.

Breakup of Doria-Neves and Division of PSDB[]

On May 15, 2022, after speeches and some problems between President Aécio Neves and his vice-president João Dória, the two ended up drifting apart and getting further and further apart. In an interview with CBS, Doria stated that due to ''internal problems with Aécio and the party'', she pushed him away as much as possible, in the same interview he said that he would not leave the position of Vice President of Brazil, since it would be a ''important position for the country''.

Leite e Aécio

Presidential candidate Eduardo Leite meeting with President Aécio Neves in July 2022

After these problems between Aécio and Dória, the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) ended up splitting between the more traditional toucans (pro-aécio) and the more innovative toucans (pro-Dória). Because of this fight, several pro-dória members ended up getting into several internal fights between the members, such as the discussions between Serra and Neves on social networks.

The presidential candidate, Eduardo Leite, said on social media that he would support President Neves, saying that ''PSDB would be better with him and more united''. Soon, other important members such as former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso, party president Yeda Crusius, Geraldo Alckmin and among several others ended up supporting Aécio Neves, ending the internal conflicts with the party that had been going on for 2 months.

On July 22, 2022, trying to move further away from the national office and from Aécio Neves, João Doria ran for the Senate of São Paulo, where he was chosen with the PSDB primaries in the Senate, beating the candidate Felipe d'Ávilla.

Allegations of Fraud in Electronic Ballot Boxes[]

Brazilian DRE voting machine for 2022 elections

Brazilian DRE voting machine

PARNE candidate Jair Bolsonaro has claimed that Brazilian electronic ballots are prone to rigging votes since at least 2019, when he was a member of the Chamber of Deputies, and successfully pushed for a bill that would require polling stations to also print voting records, the printed vote.

During Bolsonaro's campaigns for the 2022 presidency, various social media platforms were inundated with false claims that electronic ballots had been created to favor candidates other than his party, and that Cabo Daciolo (PARNE candidate at the time) would have won the election. However, after investigating such allegations, authorities and even the STF ruled out any fraud on the ballots showing that some videos shared online were manipulated and edited to spread these allegations. As president, Bolsonaro also insisted on allegations of electoral fraud and pushed for an election audit, but failed.

Brazil Bicentennial[]

On September 7, 2022, Brazil completed 200 years of its history, and this date is celebrated throughout the nation and congratulated by several nations. On the day of the independence ceremony, the President of Portugal, Mozambique, Angola and even Joe Biden's United States paid a visit to Brazil. The country's President, Aécio Neves, made a great National statement, in addition to welcoming visitors from the countries, stating that they are ''Brazil's best friends''.

Despite the day being planned only for celebrations with a major national holiday, independence day was used a lot by the candidate of PERNA, Jair Bolsonaro for the political focus, summoning from several of his supporters and voters in the city of Rio de Janeiro. The STF condemned the attitude of political use in independence, but did not punish the candidate.

PSDB nomination[]

Brazilian Social Democracy Party ticket, 2022
PSDB Toucan Mascot
Eduardo Leite Alessandro Vieira
for president for vice-president
Eduardo Leite em 2017
Senador Alessandro Vieira
Governor of Rio Grande do Sul

(2019-2022)

Senator of Sergipe

(2019-2022)

For the first time in 10 years, the primaries of PSDB did not have the participation of Aécio Neves as a candidate, as it was illegible to run for a third position as president of the republic.

Vice President João Doria was the favorite but ended up resigning due to internal problems related to him by the party, and ended up running for the senate of São Paulo. With that, he supported the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite, who came as one of the favorites. The Party had 3 more candidates, Jair Bolsonaro, Luiz Mandetta and Arthur Virgilio. With the 3 candidates and in a single round, Eduardo Leite ended up winning the primary, obtaining 52.9% of the valid votes, while the bolsonaro candidate had 30.04%. For the first time, a candidate born in Rio Grande do Sul became the party's presidential candidate. It was also the first time that a candidate from the Southern Region of Brazil became a candidate for the presidency of the party.

On March 3, 2022, Eduardo Leite and the party nominated the Senator of Sergipe, Alessandro Vieira as their vice candidate. The appointment was seen by a good part of the party's toucans.

PT nomination[]

Wokers' Party ticket, 2022
PT logo
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Gleisi Hoffman
for president for vice-president
Lula campanha 2022
GleisiHofmmannLifey4R
Vice President of Brazil

(2007-2015)

Senator of Paraná

(2011-2022)

The Workers' Party came as a defeat in the 2018 election, with that it had a slight weakening in politics in the country. Manuela d'Ávilla was seen by the party as a ''young fighter, but not prepared''.

The former vice president of Brazil and founder of the party came as a big favorite, did not participate in the 2018 election due to years of recovery from his health problem in 2014. In October 2021, Lula ended up confirming his pre-campaign as candidate for the party primaries, which largely encouraged party members. On the day of the party's primaries, Lula obtained 72% of the valid votes from more than 10 million votes, being the most voted candidate in the history of the party.

On May 20, 2022, former Paraná senator Gleisi Hoffmann was nominated by the Labor Party and Lula to be their deputy in their election campaign. For the first time, a woman runs for vice on the PT ticket.

PARNE nomination[]

National Renovating Aliance Party ticket, 2022
Anel da ALIANÇA
Jair Bolsonaro Paulo Rabelo de Castro
for president for vice-president
Jair Bolsonaro pela EC 77 - Médico Militar no SUS (cropped)
Paulo Rabello de Castro
Mayor of Rio de Janeiro

(2019-2022)

President of IBGE

(2017-2021)

On December 21, 2021, PRENA voted between candidate Jair Bolsonaro and Pedro Lucas Fernandes. President Hamilton Mourão said the vote was ''fair and clean''. The results came out on December 28 of the same year. Candidate Jair Bolsonaro ended up winning the election with 65% of the valid votes. 1 day after the bolsonaro victory, Pedro Lucas Fernandes congratulates the candidate Bolsonaro.

For the first time, Jair Bolsonaro wins a primary election and the first time that Bolsonaro is running for the presidential election in his country. On March 19, 2022, Bolsonaro nominated former IBGE president Paulo Rabelo de Castro as his vice candidate for the presidency, the appointment was seen as "too moderate" for the candidate.

Others nominations[]

Until March 2, 2022, 5 pre-candidacies for the presidency were made official, including:

# Party Presidential candidate Political office(s) Vice-Presidential candidate
40 Brazilian Socialist Party Glauber Braga (PSOL-RJ) (cropped) Glauber Braga

(PSB)

Deputy from Rio de Janeiro

(2011-2022)

Danilo Cabral em outubro de 2017
Danilo Cabral

(PSB)

29 Workers' Cause Party Rui Costa Pimenta Rui Costa Pimenta

(PCO)

President of Workers' Cause Party

(since 2005)

Luiz Eugênio Honorato

(PCO)


Opinião polls[]

Opinion polls of Brazilian election , 2022 (President Dukakis)

Debate[]

In July 2022, the following TV stations confirmed the presidential debates

Brazilian presidential election debates, 2022
 No. Date TV stations Moderator Viewership

(Millions)

Participants
Key:

 P  Participant  

PSDB PT PARNE PSB
Governor
Leite
of Rio Grande do Sul
Former Vice-President
Lula

of Pernambuco

Mayor
Bolsonaro

of Rio de Janeiro

Depulty
Braga

of Rio de Janeiro

1 August 21,2022 CBS Brazil Carlos Melos 47,3 P P P P
2 August 23, 2022 Jovem Pan News Reinaldo Azevedo 31,4 P P P P
3 August 27, 2022 Band TV Ricardo Boechat - P P P P
4 September 7, 2022 RedeTV! Amanda Klein - P P P P
5 September 20, 2022 RecordTV Luiz Fara Monteiro - P P P P
6 September 30, 2022 TV Globo William Bonner - P P P P


Result[]

The results of the first round began to be counted at 17:50 by Brasilía time and ended up going until 23:40, with almost 130 million voters registered for the first round, a record in the presidential elections.

According to the results of the First Round, the ruling PSDB candidate, Eduardo Leite, obtained 58.8 million votes, representing 45.5% of the valid votes. Even in the first round, he failed to obtain more than 50% of the votes, which ended up going to the second round with PT candidate and former vice president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Candidate Party Vice Party First Round Second Round
Votes % Votes %
Eduardo Leite PSDB Alessandro Vieira PSDB 58,839,212 45,57% 69,696,334 53,92%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva PT Gleisi Hoffman PT 54,182,599 41,96% 59,568,421 46,08%
Jair Bolsonaro PARNE Paulo Rabelo de Castro PARNE 10,857,122 8,41%
Glauber Braga PSB Danilo Cabral PSB 5,183,838 4,01%
Rui Costa PCO Luiz Honorato PCO 57,448 0,04%
Total 129,120,219 100% 129,264,755 100%
Popular vote (first round)
Leite
45.57%
Lula
41.96%
Bolsonaro
8.41%
Braga
4.01%
Costa
0.04
Popular vote (Second round)
Leite
53.92%
Lula
46.08%

Maps[]