This Southern victory scenario will try to illustrate the massive changes around the world from this huge change in history. Most timelines on this subject simply have the two republics survive in their original form up until the modern day. That will not be the case in this timeline. Only one thing's for certain: the American people will never be brothers again.
Points of Divergence
The South could not have won the Civil War based on a single point of divergence. It would have had to be a trend of luck favoring the South, and a few large blunders not happening. To start, the South does not invade Kentucky early in the war. This keeps Kentucky favorable to the South. Secondly, General Albert Sidney Johnston was not killed at the Battle of Shiloh. He was still seriously wounded and was unable to return to the battlefield until 1864. However, his survival kept Southern morale higher than it was in OTL. Special Order 191 is never left behind and found by Union forces. The early successes of the Confederacy led to Britain and France seriously considering joining the war on the South's side. Britain eventually decided against it, in part due to having their own cotton production in India, but France wanted a strong ally in America. France sent their ships to break up parts of the US blockade around the South, allowing vital supplies to finally flow in and out of the Confederacy. Later on, Stonewall Jackson was not accidentally killed by Confederate forces, meaning he was present to finish the war. This resulted in a victory at the Battle of Gettysburg (a different battle than the one in OTL, but similar in scale) and a final victory at the Battle of Alexandria in April 1865. This victory destroyed the Union's main force and also their hopes for a victory.
The Treaty of Alexandria officially ended the war. In it, the US agreed to recognize the independence and sovereignty of the Confederate States. The CS would not include the border states of Kentucky or Missouri, having never effectively controlled either. The South agreed to let West Virginia remain in the Union in exchange for the Arizona Territory (the Southern part of the New Mexico territory) and the area that would later become Oklahoma. The treaty also stipulated that there would be free movement and immigration of citizens between the two nations at least until 1900, and free trade until 1880. The Southern negotiators tried to include a provision in the treaty that would allow any US state to join the Confederacy at any time over the next 30 years, but that was one thing the North wouldn't budge on. Either way, the South had finally won its independence.
- This timeline is still very much under construction, which means that nothing I write in any article is final and everything should be essentially considered a placeholder for the final product. When the main timeline is finished, I plan to go back and review everything to make it more cohesive and fleshed out, and then add more depth from there.
- Even though the butterfly effect would almost certainly cause completely different people to rise to positions of prominence in this timeline, I prefer to build my timelines around people that actually existed in OTL. I feel that creating fictional leaders cheapens the overall feel of the timeline.