Burning City On A Hill

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Protestors during the 2009 Political Crisis in the American Federal Republic

This timeline follows a world in which the development of nuclear weapons is severely stunted, with nuclear weapons only being introduced in the 1970s. As such, a conventional World War III between NATO and the Warsaw Pact takes place in the 1960s, which leads to the USA's global influence massively declining and the USSR becoming the global hegemon, competing for world influence with China, as the US falls to the wayside.

Point(s) of Divergence

There are two main points of divergence. In 1924 Robert Oppenheimer commits suicide, furthermore Albert Einstein chooses to return to Germany in 1933 rather than stay in America, and is killed in the Holocaust. As such nuclear weapons are not a possibility until decades after they were in the OTL. World War II is identical until the end of the war. As the US and allied fleet further encroaches on the Japanese Home Islands, the possibility of a costly invasion and occupation of Japan becomes more and more apparent. The Japanese army high command, desperate to save face, refused to surrender unconditionally but did offer a conditional surrender to the United States which would, in the eyes of the Japanese leaders, allow them and Japan itself to retain their honour. The conditions included allowing Hirohito to remain Emperor of Japan and allowing Japan to try it's own war criminals, demands largely seen as unacceptable by the Americans. After the US rejected Japan's offer, Japanese hopes for a favourable peace fell to the Soviet Union, who had previously signed a non-aggression pact with Japan and although allied with the USA, were not yet at war with Japan, it was hoped that the Japanese decision not to invade Siberia in conjunction with Operation Barbarossa, coupled with the Soviets' own growing rivalry with the US would persuade the Soviets to mediate a peace with honour between Japan and the US. However, the USSR refused and instead joined the war against Japan, invading Manchuria, Northern Korea and South Sakhalin. Japan braced for an invasion, however, although the US had drawn up plans for an invasion of the Japanese home islands, it was decided instead to simply blockade Japan, who had no outside allies or reasonable chances for resupply until surrender, denying the Japanese leadership battle. Ultimately the Japanese surrender on October 3rd, 1945.

The Cold War begins much the same, however with increased tensions as another World War seems much more viable to both sides without the threat of nuclear weapons. Stalin considers the at the time ongoing war in Korea to be an excellent opportunity to invade western Europe and at one point even has plans drawn up to do just that. Many believe that Stalin's untimely demise in 1952 was an assassination ordered by one of Stalin's closest Soviet compatriots in order to prevent another costly European War. In the west, many leaders and military officials such as Winston Churchill and Douglas MacArthur suggest aggressive military action against the Soviet bloc, especially MacArthur who in 1949 and 1950, sought permission from President Truman to invade China. Nevertheless, for nearly 20 years there exists an unstable peace between the two superpowers, peace that was not to last...

World War III

The Cuban Revolution and the subsequent communist regime established in the country thereafter draws American scrutiny, much as it did in the OTL, however without nuclear weapons it never escalates to the possibly world-ending proportions it did there. The USSR still supports Cuba, but without the threat of a potentially world-ending nuclear war, an American invasion occurs, after which the Warsaw Pact promptly invades Western Europe in response. The Warsaw Pact makes massive gains and has conquered most of West Germany, parts of Norway, and all of Iceland by late 1962, however the arrival of fresh troops from the US halts the Soviet offensive and stalemate persists for the rest of that year. Also in 1962, North Korea invades South Korea, North Vietnam invades South Vietnam, and the Balkan states within the Warsaw Pact invade Turkey and Greece. In an effort to break the stalemate, the Warsaw Pact invades neutral Austria and uses it as a launching pad into northern Italy, opening a new front. US reinforcements manage to turn back the North Vietnamese invasion and halt the North Korean one, but China remains neutral and it's support for those countries prevents the US from directly attacking or bombing either of them, lest China be dragged into the war. A renewed Soviet offensive manages to take nearly all of West Germany (aside from a few pockets), and cross the Rhine, but they are halted again in the Netherlands where brutal, indecisive fighting takes place into 1964. Meanwhile, the Soviets sponsor insurgents in Africa, including the MPLA in Angola, SWAPO in Namibia, ZANU in Rhodesia and the Simbas in the Congo. Soviet-backed Somalia invades the Ogaden region of US-backed Ethiopia and despite a few setbacks, Somalia is able to defeat Ethiopia. Greece and Turkey both fall by the end of 1963.

A renewed NATO push expels the Soviets from the Netherlands and forces them back into West Germany where NATO vigorously continues it's offensive. Despite being forced to stop, the Allies are very pleased with their progress. Faced with increasing numbers of mutinies, and heavy losses, the Warsaw Pact finds itself in a precarious position. However, recent North Vietnamese offensives have brought South Vietnam to the brink of collapse, as a result of American over-confidence, the US sends huge numbers of troops to Vietnam, reversing the northern offensive and beginning a full-scale invasion of Vietnam itself. Despite initial success the fighting around Hanoi becomes extremely costly and the possibility of North Vietnam's capitulation finally brings China into the war, who send a massive army into the country. The titanic communist offensive catches the allies in retreat and thoroughly destroys most of the allied divisions, taking over 200,000 prisoners. China simultaneously intervenes in Korea, overrunning most of South Korea by early 1965. Around the same time US and ARVN forces desperately hold out in the sieges of Da Nang and Hue, but they too are utterly destroyed. Saigon falls in March of 1965, and South Korea comes dangerously close to following in it's footsteps. The American failures in Asia give new vigor to the Warsaw Pact and they are able to reverse nearly all of NATO's gains from the last year, entering the Netherlands and capturing most of it by June, the allies flood the dikes in an effort to prevent the Soviet offensive, but this fails to seriously effect it. The Warsaw Pact gains air superiority and enters Belgium, laying siege to Antwerp and Bruges. Bonne falls in September and West Germany ceases to exist. Headway is made into Alsace-Lorraine, and Southern France is invaded through Italy. As Belgium begins to fall and retreating NATO troops begin to flood into France, De Gaulle rallies the French people and demands that they make the Soviets pay for every inch of land. The Warsaw Pact faces the bitterest fighting yet in France and though Paris falls in October, the French capital is simply moved to Bordeaux and the French keep fighting, eager to prove wrong the popular myths about their cowardice following WWII. Despite this, the Soviets eventually capture nearly all of France, after which De Gaulle still demands that France stay in the war and continue resisting, however he is soon overthrown by a group of French officers who no longer see the point in fighting, they soon surrender to the Soviets. Nevertheless, the remnants of the French and American armies escape at Toulon and evacuate to Italy. 1965 ends with the Chinese conquest of British Hong Kong and Portugese Macau, who are both reinstated as part of China. Somalia also invades French-controlled Djibouti and British Kenya, conquering Djibouti by early 1966.

South Korea falls and the allied armies escape to Japan. In late January the Soviets reach Rome, which is surrendered without a fight in order to spare the city. Italy capitulates by March, but the US forces there continue resisting until June. With Western Europe now almost completely under Soviet control, an armistice is offered but the Americans refuse and continue the war. The Congo falls to the Communist Simba rebellion, and the country is finally stabilized after years of unrest. Around the same time, Somalia annexes parts of British Kenya, which along with the Ogaden and Djibouti, make Somalia one of the most powerful nations on the African continent. However, the allies largely prevail in Angola, Mozambique, Rhodesia, Guinea and South West Africa. The Zimbabwean insurgency largely ceases after Joshua Nkomo negotiates favourable terms with the Rhodesian government that includes light voting reforms and greater representation for black Africans, however Robert Mugabe's faction of rebels continues their insurgency long after the war's conclusion. The Chinese invade Taiwan, but their invasion becomes bogged down amidst heavy fighting on islands in the Taiwanese strait. The Soviet Union invades and liberates Cuba with the help of Cuban insurgents and the remnants of the Cuban Army who escaped in 1962, they threaten an invasion of Alaska, though this is a bluff as despite their victories, the Soviets are nearly at their breaking point. Chinese forces eventually land in mainland Taiwan but are repelled by late January of 1967. The US, heavily exhausted and having suffered the loss of over 700,000 servicemen, finally accepts an armistice and hostilities officially end on the 8th of February.

The peace accords forced Great Britain to cede Hong Kong, as well as the part of Kenya occupied by Somalia to their respective conquerors. NATO was disbanded and the US was forced to recognize Fidel Castro's government as the legitimate government of Cuba, it was also required to pay the modern equivalent of 2.8 Billion USD to Cuba in reparations. All the defeated former-NATO countries became socialist republics and were inducted into the Warsaw Pact, except for Turkey which was simply just demilitarized. Germany was re-unified under the GDR, as was Korea under the DPRK and Vietnam under North Vietnam. Utterly humiliated, the US saw it's global influence and prestige significantly diminished, and largely returned to it's pre-WWII isolationist ways, however in the following decades, it would again attempt to reclaim it's place as a major world power. The resulting national trauma was unprecedented in the nation's history and led John F. Kennedy, to be viewed as one of the worst presidents of all time. George Wallace would be elected president in the 1968 election, pushing the Democratic Party much further to the right than in the OTL. Wallace took hold of the anger and trauma of the American people and blamed the defeat on civil rights activists at home, as well as leftists, trade unionists and others. In response to this, many who had lost faith in the American political system amidst the defeat moved left, heavily polarizing American politics. A period of violence would follow known as the American Troubles, eventually exploding into the Second American Civil War in the 1990s.

Differences by continent

Africa

• Since France is a part of the socialist bloc and the US' foreign policy becomes more reactive than proactive, many coups or interventions either sponsored by, or directly done by the US or France in our timeline never happen. Africa is much more stable in this timeline, with far less conflict.
• Kwame Nkrumah is never overthrown, as he does not take a trip to China in 1966 due to the Third World War. Furthermore, with American resources stretched thin, the CIA does not aid the plotters in their coup. Ghana remains a stable country aligned with the eastern bloc, and Nkrumah's frequent advocation for Pan-Africanism makes the ideology significantly popular, continent-wide.
• Thomas Sankara is never overthrown and Burkina Faso is a stable and modern nation into the present day, an ally of the Soviets against Chinese ambitions in Africa.
• Since Rhodesia and South Africa stand as some of the only allied nations in World War III to successfully defeat communist forces, they receive far more support from the US and UK than in our timeline, and there are never any embargoes or sanctions. Rhodesia gains independence from Great Britain in the late 1960s and generally the white minority-ruled states in Africa survive in some form into the present day.
• South Africa wins the South African Border War since, without the embargo, they occupy a status similar to Israel in our timeline, wherein they are a staunch US ally and major customer of US weaponry. With a substantially more well-equipped military than in our timeline, the SADF is able to defeat the comparatively poorly armed Cuban Army and bring SWAPO to the negotiating table.
• UNITA wins the Angolan Civil War after more frequent and direct help from the SADF, culminating in a full-scale South African intervention in Angola which eventually ends the war.