Etholiadau Senedd 2018 (Welsh History Post Glyndwr)

‹ 2013  2023 ›
Etholiadau Seneddol 2018
All 173 seats to the Cynlliad (Ty Isod y Senedd)
26 May 2018
Turnout		100%
		First party	Second party	Third party
Leader		Adam Price	Iwan Meurig	Alys Gruffydd
Party		Plaid Gwerinwr Cristnogol	Ymlaen y Ddraig	Y Blaid Werdd
Leader since		2014	2006	2016
Last election		32 Seats (16.5%)	45 Seats (24%)	20 Seats (12.45%)
Seats won		43	34	25
Seat change		+11	-20	+5
Popular vote		1,134,478	844,618	695,412
Percentage		23.2%	17.3%	14.2%
		Fourth party	Fifth party	Sixth party
Leader		Stephen ap Neil Kinnock	Suzy Davies	Hannah Sell
Party		Plaid Gwerinwr Cymdeithasol	Plaid Gatholig	Plaid Sosialaidd
Leader since		2015	2017	2014
Last election		27 Seats (15.5%)	24 Seats (15.5%)	18 Seats (10.5%
Seats won		22	20	18
Seat change		-5	-4	N/A
Popular vote		576,029	572,360	532,323
Percentage		11.8%	11.7%	10.9%
PG Cristnogol: 43 seats   Plaid Werdd: 25 seats   Plaid Catholig: 20 seats   Ymlaen y Ddraig: 34 seats   PG Cymdeithasol: 22 seats   Plaid Sosialaidd: 18 seats   P Comiwnyddol: 8 seats   Plaid Eryr Gwyn: 3 seats

2018 – Uwch Etholiad y Senedd (Senedd Super Election)

The electoral cycle in Wales consists of five and six year terms for the Lower & Upper Houses,which means that occasionally a year falls with elections due for both houses. 2018 was one such year.

Background to the Senedd Elections

The government of Iwan Meurig had managed to survive its full five year term through turmultus times. The financial crash in 2007-08 was still having its effect felt in Wales during Meurig’s time as Canghellor. Austerity, the buzz word of the decade had its role to play in the Welsh economy, with the free-market YYD looking to cut government commitments. Plaid Gatholig were similarly free market, but Plaid Werdd that held the deciding vote in the government were in favour of greater government involvement to help the country through the crisis.Then as the economy looked to improve the next bombshell hit the Welsh political scene. In England, nationalist tensions were rising. The split with Scotland had released the more far right factions in their politics with the result that Brexit, an issue that had bubbled away in the background during the 1980’s and 90’s exploded with demands for England to “break free” of the shackles of the EU.  The 2016 vote resulted in a narrow victory for Brexit and the threat to Wales became very real with the severing of its land bridge with Europe with England’s exit from the political union.

These events coupled with some domestic scandals, resignations and a general feeling that Meurig’s government had lost direction all led to the governments support falling with the Canghellor’s personal approval ratings dropping alarmingly. With the five year term approaching, Meurig approached the king and requested the dissolving of the Senedd and to call fresh elections. 

Being an “uwch etholiad y Senedd” year, the Gwas Ystafell Senedd also requested the ending of the Ty Uchaf’s session with fresh elections to that body.

The 2018 Campaign

King Llewellyn formally ended the governments’ term of Office on the 1st March 2018. As both houses were facing elections, the Canghellor retained office for the duration of the election.

Plaid Gwerinwr Cristnogol from the outset took a lead in the polls. Following their defeat in 2013, Carwyn Jones had stepped down and they were now led by the younger Madog Fychan, who consistently showed up well against Iwan Meurig’s more stuffy approach. Plaid Werdd were also experiencing a surge in popular support. Events such as Extinction Rebellion had galvanised the younger generation into voting and they eschewed the more traditional parties. Other parties like the conservative Catholic Party and the Socialists found that they were stagnating in the polls and their campaigns lacked much in the way of fire. In contrast, the Communist Party, from no seats in the 2013 Cynulliad, in the wake of austerity, found themselves seeing an upturn in their political fortunes.

Parties Contesting the Election (right to left by political spectrum)

• Plaid Eryr Gwyn (White Eagle Party) - Far right
• Plaid Gatholig (Catholic Party) - Right wing party
• Plaid Gwerinwr Cristnogol (Christian Democrat Party) - Centre right party
• Plaid Ymlaen y Ddraig (The Dragon Leads) - Centrist party
• Plaid Gwerinwr Cymdeithasol (Social Democrat Party) - Centre left party
• Y Blaid Werdd (Green Party) - Environmental party
• Plaid Sosialaidd (Socialist Party) - Left wing party
• Plaid Comiwnyddol (Communist Party) - Far left party

Electoral System

For seats in the Cynulliad the Aelod y Cynulliad’s (AC’s) are elected by a mixture of First Past the Post (FPTP) constituencies and via a Party List system with members elected via the Hare-Niemeyer method. The country is split into three electoral regions for this vote, with Cymru, Siroedd Afon Hafren and De Is Mor being the three regions. The 2018 election was the first election where this system was used.

Election Night – 26th May 2018

During polling day, the exit polls were consistently predicting a swing towards the PGCr. As the results started to trickle in it was seen that the PGCr and Plaid Werdd were running up good results from the constituency seats though there were no major shocks. Plaid Sosialaidd continued to suffer electorally give their dominance in the previous decade.

At the end of the night the PGCr were the single biggest party with 43 seats in total, but needing to build a coalition if they wanted to form a government.

Plaid Werdd were also celebrating on election night. With 25 seats they had had their best ever election and were clear favourites to go into a coalition with the Gwerinwr Cristion. The only question being who would be the third party to give the government a majority.

After weeks of negotiation Plaid Gatholig accepted a place as the junior member of a new centrist government with leader of Plaid Werdd being appointed the Ganghellor Eilaidd. Plaid Gwerinwr Cymdeithasol had their worst election since their high point in the 2002 election, sinking to 22 seats with Plaid Sosialaidd treading water on 18 seats, the same as their 2013 tally, but still far behind their best performance in 2002 when they amassed 60 seats before Ymlaen y Ddraig started to gain political traction.

The king gave his consent to the formation of the new government on the 25^th June 2018 with the new Canghellor taking up his place in Palas Caerdydd.

Ty Uchaf Election

‹ 2012  2024 ›
Etholiadau Seneddol 2018
All 72 seats to the Ty Uchaf y Senedd
26 May 2018
Turnout		100%
		First party	Second party	Third party
Leader		Seisyll ap Gwion Cantor	Mererid ferch Gwion Vaur	Nest Llwyd
Party		Christian Democratic Party	The Green Party	Ymlaen y Ddraig
Last election		15 Seats (21.43%)	6 Seats (8.57%)	15 Seats (21.43%)
Seats won		16	13	12
Seat change		+1	+7	-3
Popular vote		1,136,495	842,279	797,626
Percentage		23.2%	17.2%	16.3%
		Fourth party	Fifth party	Sixth party
Leader		Rhosier Bowen	Meurig Goch	Meilyr Saer
Party		Social Democratic Party	Socialist Party	Plaid Catholig
Last election		12 Seats (17.14%)	10 Seats (14.29%)	11 Seats (15.71%
Seats won		11	9	9
Seat change		-1	-1	-2
Popular vote		740,740	545,004	516,255
Percentage		15.1%	11.1%	10.6%
Seneddwyr Following Election

As part of the electoral reforms undertaken by the Meurig government, elections to the Upper House had also been amended.  The House now consisted of 72 members, constitutionally fixed to 6 year terms of office with no bar to the number of times a Senator may stand for office.  The previous split electoral system for the Ty Uchaf which saw some Seneddwyr elected via FPTP and others via a list system now all Seneddwyr would be elected via PR with nine seneddwyr per electoral region.  The regions remained unchanged with Cymru divided into 8 regions.

The Leader of the Upper House is called the Gwas Ystafell Senedd or the Chamberlain of the Upper House. His role in government is to sit in the Cyfrin-Gyngor y Brenin (Kings Privy Council) and to also act as a Secundus Chancellor (Yr ail Ganghellor) should the Government fall.  The Chamberlain's role during such a time is to continue the role of government whilst arranging a General Election to provide a new Chancellor and new Government.  

The previous 2012 election saw the YYD pull level with the PGCr whilst not gaining control of the House. As the Ty Uchaf’s role is to scrutinise the legislation of the Cynulliad the lack of a clear majority is not an impediment to its role. Ieuan Wyn Jones remained Gwas-Ystafell Senedd for the first 2 years before resigning due to the revelation that he was having an affair with another seneddwr. With pressure from the YYD government, the Ty Uchaf elected Eleias Gil as the new Gwas Ystafell Senedd. He continued in that role until 2017 when he too fell due to controversy, using his position in government to grant contracts to family and friends. Forced to stand down he was replaced by the first female Gwas Ystafell Senedd in the person of Nest Llwyd.

Parties Contesting the Election (right to left by political spectrum)

• Plaid Eryr Gwyn White Eagle Party) - Far right
• Plaid Catholig (Catholic Party) - Right wing party
• Plaid Gwerinwr Cristnogol (Christian Democrat Party) - Centre right party
• Ymlaen y Ddraig (The Dragon Leads) - Centerist party
• Plaid Gwerinwr Cymdeithasol (Social Democrat Party) - Centre left party
• Plaid Werdd (Green Party) - Environmental party
• Plaid Sosialydd (Socialist Party) - Left wing party
• Plaid Comiwnyddol (Communist Party) - Far left party

The Election Campaign

Due to both Houses being up for election at the same time the campaign for the Ty Uchaf largely followed that of the Cynlliad election. The Upper House elections are always slightly hampered by the fact that they are not the governing house, with their main role as supporter to the government based in the lower house and their ability to scrutinise and amend legislation being proposed by the government. Senators however even with their clipped role hold enormous power and the position itself is steeped in prestige.

This election campaign saw the BW surge in the polls with the YYD suffering the most from this. The PGCr also saw an upturn in popular support, pulling clear of the other parties.

Election Night - 26th May 2018

The exit polls indicated that the PGCr would gain the most seats in the new Ty Uchaf but the collapse in the vote for the YYD was seen as significant.  The BW had emerged as the popular alternative vote to the YYD coming second overall in terms of the popular vote and therefore numbers of new seneddwyr.  The PGCr as the largest party were able to put their leader forward for the position of Gwas-Ystafell Senedd and Seisyll ap Gwion Cantor was duly elected with the make up of the Ty Uchaf mirroring the Cynlliad with the PGCr working in coalition with the BW and PGath to form a government bloc in the Senedd.

Results

When the results came in, it was clear that the YBW had managed to increase their share of the vote gaining seats at the expense of the YYD and Plaid Catholig in the main. Plaid Comiwnyddol saw a small increase in their vote, returning a Seneddwr to the upper house following their loss of their sole seat in 2012. Plaid Eryr Gwyn retained their representation in the Ty Uchaf though for a different rhanbarth etholiadol (electoral region) to the previous election.

Party		Votes	%	Seats	+/–
	Plaid Gwerinwr Cristnogol	1,136,495	23.2	16	+1
	Y Blaidd Werdd	842,279	17.2	13	+7
	Ymlaen y Ddraig	797,626	16.3	12	-3
	Plaid Gwerinwr Cymdeithsol	740,740	15.1	11	-1
	Plaid Sosialaidd	545,004	11.1	9	-1
	Plaid Catholig	516,255	10.6	9	-2
	Plaid Comiwnyddol	168,211	3.4	1	+1
	Plaid Eryr Gwyn	146,802	3.0	1	N/C
Total		4,893,412	100	72	0

Breakdown of Results

All the rhanbarthau etholiadol (electoral regions) elect 9 Seneddwyr via the Hare-Niemeyer method, which is a proportional representation plus highest remainder system. The Rhanbarthau Etholiadol are as follows

• Rhanbarth y Gogledd (North Region): Ynys Mon, Gwynedd Uwch Conwy and Gwynedd Is Conwy
• Rhanbarth Canol (Mid Region): Ceredigion, Powys Wenwynwyn and Powys Fadog
• Rhanbarth y Gorllewin (West Region): Ty Dewi, Penfro, Dyfed, and Ystrad Twyi
• Rhanbarth Canol De Orllewin (South West Central): Cydweli, Seisyllwg & Gwyr
• Rhanbarth y De (South Region): Morgannwg Uchaf, Bro Morgannwg and Gwent
• Rhanbarth Dwyrain (East Region): Y Mers & Henffordd
• Rhanbarth y De Ddwyrain Canol (South East Central Region): Brycheiniog, Ergyng & Ddena
• Rhanbarth y Haf (Summer Region): Gwlad yr Haf & Dyfnaint Glan Hafren

Rhanbarth	PCom	PSos	YBW	PGCy	YYD	PGCr	PCath	PEG
Gogledd	0	1	2	1	2	2	1	0
Canol	0	1	2	2	1	2	1	0
Gorllwein	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	1
De Orllewin	0	1	1	2	2	2	1	0
De	1	2	1	1	1	2	1	0
De Ddwyrain Canol	0	1	2	1	2	2	1	0
Dwyrain	0	1	2	1	2	2	1	0
Haf	0	1	2	2	1	2	1	0
Total	1	9	13	11	12	16	9	1