Alternative History
Alternative History

Operation Consequence (Port: ) was the military offensive by Brazil into southern Colombia in November of 1977, viewed as commencing with Hugo Savala's declaration on November 10 that Brazil had "the right and justification to remove threats to its sovereignty and security beyond its borders" and was followed by the 11/11 bombings of ERB camps by the National Air Force.

Consequence's primary operational package was via air power, but it included the mobilization of 30,000 Brazilian soldiers that moved rapidly through poorly-defended southern Colombia, despite Colombian efforst to reinforce the frontier for over a year. Brazilian soldiers quickly advanced through unpopulated Amazonian jungle but became bogged down by guerrilla warfare by local villagers and ERB commandos, Colombian airstrikes and the deployment of American soldiers to Colombia in early 1978. Brazil was also caught off guard by the Colombian declaration of war against Brazil on November 20 - Savala and his aides had expected Colombia to give up the ERB bases without hesitation to avoid a broader conflict. Brazil was forced to deploy an additional 100,000 soldiers to Colombia in February of 1978 as the war settled in.

Background[]

Invasion[]

Aftermath[]

Brazil's assumption that Colombia would rapidly fold and expel the ERB from its territory, having been rendered incorrect, required the Savala regime to rapidly revise its strategic plans. The deployment of American forces in January of 1978 caused the implementation of Operation Fortitude, which called for an invasion force of 100,000 Brazilians to be deployed within Colombia, stretching the country's logistics but turning the conflict over to a conventional land invasion rather than a "quick-strike" attack. Brazil also turned its attention to a "march to the Andes," moving its attention away from the Guyanese Highlands instead to attempting to puncture the Bogota Savana and Andean Cordillera, seeking instead to break Colombian resolve.

Colombia's weathering of the initial surprise attack and its successful counters led Allied leadership to assume the "bloody nose" would deter Brazil from pushing further; Fortitude thus took Allied war planners by surprise, particularly as much of the bulk of the Brazilian Army was to be held in reserve in case of conflict with Argentina, with a vastly more professional and better equipped army than Colombia. Nevertheless, it also boosted American involvement in the conflict; Eisler approved the boosting of the American troop presence in Colombia from 50,000 men to 150,000 on March 27th, and deployed an additional sixteen wings of the Air Force to provide air support against the advanced, highly-professional Brazilian Air Force.