tWhat if the Confederacy had succeeded in annexing the northern Mexican provinces, allowing them access to the Pacific and more resources and manpower? Would it have been enough to win the war? And if so, what would the Confederacy look like, with a large Hispanic population and a chance to capture more land in the west? This timeline explores one scenario and goes through the decades, watching the changes of history resulting from a Shattered Union.
December 1860-April 1861
On December 20, 1860 the state of South Carolina seceded from the United States of America . This was done because Abraham Lincoln had won the elections, an anti-slavery and anti-states rights president who promised to stop the spread of slavery. soon other southern states seceded, and by February there were seven states had were independent. On February 8th thee states formed the Confederate States of America. As they states declared independence they forced out the Union forts and bases in their land. At first Abraham Lincoln didn't think they were serious. but on April 12th the Confederate army opened fire upon the FT. Sumter, capturing the union fort. This was considered the beginning of the War of Secession. Throughout the next few months more states would secede until by mid June 11 states had become full members of the CSA.
May-June 1861
The Confederacy sends John T. Pickett to Mexico, for the purpose of negotiating a treaty that will give Mexico's northern provinces to the newly-born CSA. There were several reasons why the Confederacy wanted this. First, of course, there were many resources there. The mines of Sonora and Chihuahua brought in tons of gold and silver, and if this were directed to the Confederacy's coffers it would make them a richer nation indeed. But of course this was useless at the time, as the CSA was blockaded by the Union on all sides, destroying its economy and making any money worthless.
Which is where the second and even more valuable reward comes in. Mexico's northern provinces bordered hundreds of miles of ocean, certainly next to impossible to blockade with the Union's small Pacific fleet, and contained Guaymas, one of the most impressive ports in the western hemisphere. With coastline shipping goods and gold to purchase it with, the newborn Confederacy would no longer have a material or technological disadvantage.
Before Pickett left, he was explicitly told not to cause any trouble. So when he reached Veracruz, he made sure not to stir up rebellion and appear like a honest and well-meaning person to the Mexicans. While obviously the northern provinces were valuable to the Confederacy, they weren't nearly as much so to Mexico. Mexico was in a state of chaos right now and the president had little, if any, control over the frontiers of his nation. So selling them would cost nothing and only boost his coffers to stabilize his remaining nation.
On June 23, 1861, the Treaty of Veracruz was signed between Mexico and the CSA. This treaty gave the Confederacy Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuilla, both Bajas, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas from Mexico for a total of seven million dollars. This was a great success for the CSA, as they now had even more land the Union would have to invade, more resources, a staging point to invade New Mexico and California, and a Pacific port free from American interference. They quickly made use of this.
Summer of 1861
With northern Mexico in their hands, any worries about food shortages or supply problems went away. Whatever the CSA. needed, they could simply ship in from Guaymas. And with an extra few hundred miles of coastline on the gulf, the Union blockade on the Atlantic was weaker anyways. So when the Union blockade was set up, the Confederacy was not as worried as in OTL. But meanwhile the CSA had other problems, as border states will still deciding their allegiance and clearing their state of Union bases and West Virginia was in open rebellion.
By July 15, 1861, the chaos died down and the sides were drawn. Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, North and South Carolina, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Florida were Confederate completely. Virginia was also Confederate, but West Virginia was rebelling against the CSA. Kentucky, California, and Maryland were Union but had men on both sides, and Missouri was Union but by mid-July much of southern Missouri was under the Confederacy. This was thanks to the governor Pierre, who tried to make Missouri confederate and who still had some of Missouri under that very nation. And finally the Indian territory had sided with the CSA.
The first major battle of the war was the Battle of 1st Manassas on July 21, 1861. At this battle just 15 miles from Washington DC many American congressman and civilians showed up to watch, as they thought it would be a humiliating defeat for the CSA. They quickly found out it was the other way around as the Confederate army routed the Union forces and won the battle. However both sides fought poorly, and the bloodiness of the battle showed sides this was going to be a long war.
Confederate General Henry Hopkins Sibley launched an invasion of New Mexico on July 23, 1861. Throughout the past month the CSA had been moving in tens of thousands of soldiers into Texas and the newly purchased provinces from Mexico. The invasion was launched by several armies from Texas, Chihuahua, and Sonora. As the CSA was never farther than a couple hundred miles, the supply lines were easily kept and after the Battles of Tucson and Mesilla the Union was forced to withdraw. By early September the CSA had control of all of New Mexico south of the 34th parallel.
Meanwhile in the rest of the war, Kentucky and Missouri were both being fought over, with the Confederacy attempting to hold south Missouri and capture Kentucky. The Union blockade was up but was difficult to manage, particularly due to the even longer coastline of the Confederacy. A US landing at Veracruz is attempted but at the Battle of Veracruz the attack fails and the US is forced to withdraw.
Fall of 1861-Winter of 1862
As September ended the war looked to favor the Confederacy. Much of southern Kentucky and Missouri were under their control, as was the southern half of New Mexico and a large handful of former Mexican provinces. Unfortunately for the CSA they had lost the Battle of Cheat Mountain, ensuring Union control over western Virginia. This lowered Confederate morale somewhat, so to recover it the war department planned a campaign in the west, as well as gain resources and expand their Pacific coastline.
The Union forces located here were few, as the USA regarded the west as largely unimportant compared to the border states being fought over east. They were mostly correct, as little west of the Mississippi River except for Missouri was worth fighting over with large forces. However the state of California contained many gold mines, which under Confederate hands would go one step further to a stable economy even under blockade.
On October 7th, Confederate armies in New Mexico and Baja, with support from forces in Texas and the other Mexican provinces, launched an invasion of California and northern New Mexico. The 4th Baja Norte Brigade and 2nd Sonora cavalry won the Battle of San Diego, and the 1st Sonora Regiment and the newly formed New Mexican Brigade won a decisive victory at the Battle of Blythe. When the California Brigade retreated farther west they won again at the Battle of Salton, although the 1st New Mexican Battalion was defeated by the 2nd Californian Infantry at the Battle of Indio. Despite this, the Californian Brigade withdrew to Los Angeles, hoping to better defend California from that position.
In New Mexico the Confederacy won the Battles of Pecos and Albuquerque but lost the 1st Battle of the Little Colorado, and well as a minor engagement near the Rio Grande. The Texas Brigade and Chihuahua Regiment pushed farther and captured Cerillos, less than a hundred miles from the New Mexico capital of Santa Fe. However the USA was beginning to become competent in the west and sends more soldiers there, who win the Battle of Moriarty. The CSA then wins the Battle of Black Rock, the last major engagement of the western theater until the spring.
1862
With the winter at an end, the CSA launches another attack on Santa Fe and on March 16 captures it. In the west the CSA wins the Battles of Flagstaff and 2nd Little Colorado but loses the 1st Battle of Prescott and the 1st Battle of the Painted Desert. Later attacks win the 2nd Battle of Prescott, but loses yet again in Painted Desert. Fortifying their position, they win the 3rd Battle of Little Colorado and push the Union onto the other side completely. This is a problem for the Union, as there are no cities north of the river in the western half to support more than a small battalion. Thus they are forced to station only a small force at Pinon while the rest head to Farmingham and Coyote in the east.
Meanwhile in California the Confederacy wins the Siege of Los Angeles, killing many of the California Brigade and forcing over 600 to surrender. Combined with earlier casualties, only about 2500 remain in the Brigade and while recruitment raises this to 2700, it is still far from full size. The 4th Battalion is very undersized as a result. The Nevada 1st Cavalry and 1st Infantry are defeated at the Battle of Mohave, forced back to Vegas.
With Los Angeles fallen and the California Brigade in Nevada, the Confederacy quickly captures most of remaining California. At around this same time, Faminham and Cyote fall-adter several failed attempts and retreats- forcing the Union to retreat from New Mexico. To celebrate their conquest of a Union territroy and most of a state, the Confederacy announces the formation of the Arizona Territory. This land is all of New Mexico south of the 34th Parallel.
With California's gold and coastline in their hands, the tide of the war shifts heavily in the Confederacy's favor. Any attempts to blockade the Pacific are useless and the CSA imports anything they need. Better food and supplies, as well a superior weaponry, allows the CSA to win many battles they lost in real life, so less of the Confederacy is under Union control and more of Kentucky and Missouri under the Stars and Bars. Pubicce morale in the north, and it is clear Lincoln must turn the tide soon or he would lose the south.
On August 12, the Confederacy launches a mass assualt on Las Vegas, in hopes of driving the Union from their last major stronghold in the west. The Battle of Las Vegas, as it was called, was a complete failure. The CSA had grown used to outnumbering their counterparts in the west, and with the large of Union soldier stationed there they remembered they were outnumbered 4 to 1. Although they gained minor lands in Nevada, and the rest of California later on, they couldn't advance. The Union however, launched a campaign in hopes of recapturing Los Angeles and with it their gold mines.
The Union invasion of California took both defeats and victories, but nevertheless marched further. In desperation the Confederacy launched mass consciptionn in the Mexican provinces and took Forrest to the west as General. They pushed the Union back in a lucky battle at Pasedena, but the USA wascstill stronger and launched again after regrouping. The final part of the campaign was the Battle of Death Valley. Here 30,000 Union soldiers faced 25,000 Confederate ones. The Battle of Death Valley was the bloodiest battle of the western campaigns, but it ended in a Confederate victory. 8,000 Union soldiers and 5,000 Confederate troopss layed dead at the end of the fighting when Sherman finally called for retreat. The south won again at a high cost, but Death Valley earned its name well that day.
The Confedray recaptured all of California and with a weakened Union army-and a stronger southern one-captured Los Vegas. The Union had lost its last stronghold west of St. Louis, and they would remember that dearly. With Vegas went southern Nevada, and soon the northern army was taking refuge in Salt Lake City of all places. With many of the same soldiers having been there 4 years ago kioling their menfolk at the Utah War, the Mormons were understandily less than hospitable. Many a fight broke between the Union soldiers and the civilians during their stay.