Calvo Sotelo's killing as POD
Without the killing of a prominent conservative politician Mola's coup would probably have aborted: It's only after Calvo's killing that the all-important requeté backing was given, IIRC also Falange's, and there is a certain probability -there are gaps on the record- that Franco only compromised himself fully after it.
The targets of Cpt. Condes killing party were either Gil-Robles, who was out of town, or Calvo. Both were well known conservative politicians but with two very important differences. While Calvo was the leader of a very minoritary and "out of the system" group (Renovación Española / Bloque Nacional); Gil-Robles was the leader of a mass party and the second largest parlamentary group (the conservative christian-democratic CEDA). His killing would have not altered the timeline regarding the conspirators (pretty sure the above mentioned event would had happened); it's hard to believe that other events would have stayed the same. Some possibilities:
- While the CEDA was one of the few political parties without a militia, the murder of his chief would have prompted its ranks (and of many still non-commited catholics) to self-defense (0,75). That would have led inevitabily to a change, at least, in the structure of the "national" militiae: from only two sizable organizations - Falange and Requeté- to three -or even four: Calvo's-, and a disminishing influence of Falange. Many falange-militiamen were former CEDA/JAP members left without an organization where to fight: Serrano Suñer may be a -not so- paradigmatic sample. The political impact is wide ...
- The appeasing -and on the long run suicidal- attitude of some CEDA fractions, f.i. valencian DRV leader Luis Lucia, would have become absolutely impossible (0,90). And with political support, the absurd behaviour of the Valencia garrison (which remained uncommited until early August) would have been very different
- I doubt that Gil-Robles assasination would have met the same, say indiferent, impact on the republican left or on many legalist military. There is a non null probability - spanish politicians are too cainite to make it a security- that the Popular Front (always weak) would had not survived it (0,30). Probably a civil war would have ensued anyway, but this time an openly socialcommunist revolutionary war (an October 34, second edition, to say)
- On the foreing front, Gil-Robles death would probably accelerated Mussolini's decision to help the insurgents (0,7), but not necessarily for Hitler (0.9). With Italy in a headstart, german policy would have been more low key (Remember that in July 1936 they were not exactly on best terms). Add to that a more friendly attitude of the british government regarding the insurgents (0,5)...
Any of the above gives precious alternate histories. Specially first and/or last (for its international sidelines). But all of them alter so seriously the rest of the timeline that "An United Front" becomes impossible. I'm sorry to say, Calvo must die July the 13th.
On the other hands, with Calvo alive (and in the nationalist zone), there is no need to bring Jose Antonio in to start rearguard political troubles ... For a start, Franco would probably never been "chief of government". And the balance of power would have been more averse to Falange and less so for the radical monarchists. And on the foreing front, while Calvo's group had relatively fluent connections to Italy, and a little less to the english "establishment"; was absolutely mistrustful of nazi Germany --Asshur 15:02, 18 September 2008 (UTC)
- thank you for the feedback and you are more then welcome to contribute to the timeline if you feel so inclined.--Marcpasquin 20:37, 20 September 2008 (UTC)
Would we be seeing an Atlantic Iron Curtain across Europe (except possibly Britain) after ww2 ATL? Buk5 20:38, 20 September 2008 (UTC)
- why would we ? the united front refered to in the title is one between left-leaning party but not necesseraly communistic.--Marcpasquin 21:17, 20 September 2008 (UTC)
well, how would the cold war play out then? Buk5 21:18, 20 September 2008 (UTC)
- I haven't got to that point yet but considering an early start of the second world war (before germany was fully ready), the axis might not have occupied as much territory as it did *here* which mean that the URSS might not have liberated as much leading to a smaller warsaw pact.--Marcpasquin 14:29, 21 September 2008 (UTC)