Keep up the good work. A truly entertaining read!
- Thank you so much! It feels good to know that someone is enjoying my work. Vavent (talk) 05:08, March 3, 2019 (UTC)
If you don't mind my asking, do you have any spoilers in the direction on where this is headed? I liked the section about South-North border control.
- Yes, I have most of it planned out in my head up until about the 1950's. The rest of the 19th Century will be pretty uneventful. There won't be a Second Civil War or anything. The National and American Parties will join into one and win the presidency in 1884, reversing Democratic policies like the second fugitive slave act. Slaves will continue to flow across the border. I'm not sure exactly what I'll do about slavery- the Confederacy certainly won't outlaw it on their own. I think it will begin to die out on its own as cotton prices fall due to international markets like India. This will cause a collapse of the C.S. economy and a brief period of industrialization. The C.S.A. will join the Allied Powers early in World War I, as their president (unsure exactly who) will be hawkish. This will lead the U.S. to join the Central Powers and go to war against the Confederacy. The Entente still defeats Germany in Europe, though the process is much more drawn out, and eventually force the U.S. into a white peace. World War I has grave economical effects on both the U.S. and C.S., leading to the rise of radical movements in each. The U.S. will eventually experience a successful socialist/communist revolution in the 1930's, with the Western states splitting off to form their own democratic nation. The Confederacy will see a rise in fascist influence and will almost succumb to a fascist dictatorship, but Huey Long will be elected president and force the country through a period of rapid industrialization and social progression. The C.S. and Socialist U.S. will fight together in WWII against the Axis. I'm unsure what happens after that point, but I think a mini-Cold War will start between the North and South while Soviet influence goes mostly unchecked. The C.S. will probably see a conservative backlash in the 60's, with leaders like George Wallace taking control. Segregation will have to end through international embargo, like what happened with South Africa in the 90's. All of that is subject to change, of course.
- Sorry if that was too detailed, but I'm really enthusiastic about the future of this timeline. Let me know if you see anything that could be improved. Vavent (talk) 03:36, March 4, 2019 (UTC)
- If you want I can help you write if you would like to collaborate.
- Specifically, on slavery, we have to realize (as you said) that they will not abolish slavery willingly, and that state governors and local leaders will fight near to an end to keep the system in the deep south. I think a good extinction date for Slavery will be the Bowl Weavel, (the infamous pest) that struck Cotton so badly in the turn of the 20th century. Naturally, the pest will cause a fall in Cotton Production, and with western powers developing their colonies in Asia and Africa they will have less of a need to accept the inmoral practices of the South even more. Also consider the butterfly effects this will have on Brazil (which was very big on slavery). The experience of the American Civil War influenced Pedro's II decision to abolish slavery gradually and peacefully. One might imagine that the victory of the South would embolden conservatives in Brazil. However if Pedro II still ends slavery without a war, this would make the Confederacy the last European country to use slavery (because Slavery exisited in East Africa in the 1890s until the British brought that to an end).
- Are you sure you want WWI to be of the same model, or that it will even start in 1914? Maybe try to think of how the alliances could be different, regardless the Confederacy and the Union will be on opposite sides, and the U.S will not be able to win a total victory if must also fight with Great Britain at the same time.
- One idea that comes to me when I think about the bowel weaval is the cultural effects, if Slavery is brought to an end due to this natural disaster it will be a very common literary tool to say 'plauge delivered, the victims from their cruel masters'. The metaphor then between the Slaves and the famous Old Testement story will be even greater.
- Stepintime (talk) 18:23, March 4, 2019 (UTC)
- Wow, you seem to be pretty knowledgeable on this subject. Ideally, I want to find a way for slavery to go mostly extinct before 1914. I'm not sure if the Allies will ally with the Confederacy if they still have slavery, and the rest of my timeline is based around the South being on the winning side of WWI against the U.S. (Because if the U.S. wins, they will almost certainly retake the South and that's not where I want this timeline to go.) We should consider why the Southern politicians fought so hard to protect slavery/segregation- was it because racism was so deeply ingrained in them, and because they needed to feel superior to the slaves? Or was it a way to rebel against the North? Basically, I'm wondering if they would still want to protect slavery as much if it became unprofitable. If I recall correctly, slavery almost died out in the 1790's due to it being fantastically unprofitable before the cotton gin was invented. Since the boll weevil migrated from Mexico, and the Confederacy controls Northern Mexico in this timeline, I could also move the date of the infestation up to the early 1900's.
- I don't claim to be an expert when it comes to World War I (in fact, out of all the major wars of the last 200 years it's probably the one I'm the least familiar with). However, my understanding is that the U.S. didn't have much of an impact on European politics before WWI, as they were isolationist prior to that. I'm not sure if any of the changes so far would cause the background of the war to be much different. Perhaps Spain will retain possession of Cuba and their other colonies due to the lack of a war with America, and then remain strong enough to enter the world war. I know one thing: I don't want the Central Powers to win. That would turn the focus of this timeline from a "South wins Civil War" timeline into a "Germany wins WWI" timeline. American and Confederate forces will be mostly absent from Europe, as they will be fighting on their own front. If the Allies then go on to win anyway, it will be a longer affair. I think the war in Europe will last until 1920 or 1921, which has big butterfly effects on its own.
- As far as the idea of collaboration goes, I had mostly envisioned this as a solo effort. On the other hand, you are very knowledgeable and bring up points I hadn't considered before. I'll have to think about it. I know next to nothing about slavery in Brazil, so at the very least you could do a section on that. Vavent (talk) 03:05, March 5, 2019 (UTC)
I saw that you added links, but perhaps a template would be a better way to organize the article tree.
The reason why Slavery was so important, is that it was the chief foundation for the enterprises of those who held political power. Remember that most Southern Whites did not own slaves, but the slave owners were almost always financially superior to the majority of the population. In the context of the Civil War, outside the moral issue of abolition, the biggest conflict was political control. If Southern elites lost their slaves, they would have no answer to the massive industrial production of the north and would lose relevance both in Washington and their local communities.
Also, remember that at this time suffrage for white men without property was less than twenty years old at this point and politics was often a rich man's matter. There was historically a huge disconnect between slave owners and nonslave owners in the upper south, where there were fewer slaves by percentage. Virgina and North Carolina were the most reluctant to join the Confederacy, and in North Carolina, there was a bitter divide among whites (certainly class based). Secession was only agreed to when all surrounding states had already joined the Confederacy and Raleghi believed it had no choice.
However there were so many slaves in the deep south the poor whites resented them there and were more enthusiastic to fight for the Confederacy even though nothing material was offered to the poor whites in this area except 'glory'
The case of the pre Civil War was two groups of elites with different economies competing with each other for control of the country. Southern Elites having smaller populations were paranoid that they would be subsumed by an ever-expanding Northern industrial belt. One aspect I like about your timeline is your 'compromise' of giving up West Virgina for western territories (I think this makes sense within the Southern Mind)
If the South wins, slavery has still been a bedrock of the economy and even more so if a wartime ally becomes a good consumer of Southern Goods. Also remember that the military victory will give legitimacy to the system (even if it is true that generals such as Robert E Lee disliked the institution and that is not entirely agreed upon). Now it will eventually become more of economic pain and a foreign policy embarrassment, but at that point, the ideas you mention about class and racism will be more important in keeping slavery. However, between Bowl Weavel and the threat of diplomatic isolation the I imagine the South will finally abolish slavery between 1890-1920 or encourage states to let it go.
As far as WWI goes, Germany has the advantages of a large army, industrial base, slightly better commanders and coal production. The French leadership infamously used 'plan 17' which involved a Napoleanic like a sacrifice of soldiers v.s machine guns. By all accounts, a German Victory in WWI is likely as Great Britain's blockade while effective could not fix the situation for France all by itself. Another possibility (which might not also be what you have in mind) is a total collapse of European empires across all sides as workers suffering from economic hardship storm government offices which occurred in Germany historically. If WWI continues for more than four years it is not unreasonable to imagine soldiers might mutiny as well. Now whether this becomes a 'Socialist' event is more up for question.
That being said an allied victory could still be plausible really is Great Britian's blockade can make German civilians deperate and miserable. And France holds on (though historically it may had been overrun without U.S help). You are right that America was largely uninterested in Europe until WWI (and most citizens didn't really care until the second red scare)
Finally, I could imaigne the Confederacy being aggressive and eager to wage its own war against Spain if an easy opportunity is found. Remember there was an infamous incident where Southerners tried to take control of Cuba before the Civil War to expand slavery.
Yet another possiblity is to have Great Britain and Germany alligned with each other v.s Russia and France, which was historically considered in the 1905-1912 by British policly makers, before they truly became intimdated by Germany's desgins. Stepintime (talk) 17:05, March 5, 2019 (UTC)