Isiro - Kivu meeting
I wondered If you would be interested in a joint article about the meeting of Kivu and Isiro. It would probably be a war of some kind... GunsnadGlory 15:41, January 14, 2012 (UTC)
- That would be interesting, although Kivu has no interest in expanding further off than the rest of the Kivus and Maniema, so they really won't have a huge interest in whatever Isiro is doing. I like the idea though. Fed (talk) 18:23, January 14, 2012 (UTC)
- I figured that'd be true.
- BUT... Isiro is fine with expanding. Contact could be made by some Isiran patrols or exploration forces...
- Isiro would attack Kivu happily.
- My only worry is, Kivu is either neutral, friendly, or a puppet state to Katanga. No matter what, Katanga would obviously wnat to help Kivu. Of course, I wanted to get your ideas first... GunsnadGlory 20:23, January 14, 2012 (UTC)
- My basic idea is that Isiro's expeditionary patrols meet up with some small Kivan town, under its sphere of influence. Reporting up with their superiors, the launch an attack, catching Kivu offguard. They gain info and supplies on Kivu and drive deep into the country. Within around two weeks, Isiro has reached the capital. Then Katanga (assuming you and... whoever the author of Katanga is... agrees) intervenes. Halting and pushing back the Isirans, they eventually get back to Isiro's pre-war boundaries, and then Isiro ,with better men, counterattacks. Eventually, around half way through, Katanga's better economy outmatches Isiro's, but they're conscripts don't match up to Isiro's hardened fighters. A stalemate occurs, and Isiro is released to the world. GunsnadGlory 01:23, January 16, 2012 (UTC)
- Didn't see that in the article. The advance wouldn't be that long. But anyway, Isiro would have extemely well trained conscripts, as being a dictatorship, they could seize and train them to keep a large standing army. As I said, economy against army. Isiro loses long range, but Kivu and Katanga lose major amounts of men.GunsnadGlory 02:22, January 16, 2012 (UTC)
No way that could be plausible. 3.5 million v.s. 0.5 million, and the latter has big problems with stability and its people. There's also a ton of distance between them, through the jungle. Lordganon 09:38, January 16, 2012 (UTC)
Yeah. That's why, as I said (or suggested), Isiro would mainly be launching 'blitz' attacks. Special forces attack longer Kivan supply trains, and retreat back. They quickly move forward, attacking Kivan cities, seizing supplies and conscripts, setting up small command posts, then abandoning them when attacked. Slowly, their army (made of battle-hardened veterans) starts taking cities. A reverse guerilla war. GunsnadGlory 19:29, January 16, 2012 (UTC)
That is just as bad, probably even worse. Not possible. Lordganon 02:37, January 17, 2012 (UTC)
Ok. Then, Kivu, noticing a much weaker state, attacks, finds it to be strong, arrives to a truce... GunsnadGlory 19:47, January 17, 2012 (UTC)
Nor does that make any sense. Neither one of them would be capable of doing any such operations. Lordganon 02:17, January 18, 2012 (UTC)\
Ok. Still, it seems a little odd thart the two wouldn't make contact in someway... maybe not a war, as both have weaknesses (see my comments on the Talk:"Zaire" page under Bunia, especially about the democracies ), but it makes no sense that some form of meeting wouldn't occur. GunsnadGlory 19:32, January 18, 2012 (UTC)
Yes, contact of some form, and probably small skirmishes between scouts, is without a doubt. But a war just isn't possible. Lordganon 08:55, January 19, 2012 (UTC)
"The Isiro-Kivu Incident".... similar to the Chola Incident OTL?
That would make sense.
By the way, looking back I noticed you said Isiro had stability problems. Where? The DPI were the only such things, and they were eliminated during August. GunsnadGlory 17:37, January 19, 2012 (UTC)
No, to compare it to that incident would be an exaggeration. Just isolated fighting, on occasion, between scouts.
Your article contends that there are still members of it out there. Besides that, that such a group formed in the first place is a problem, and it is a dictatorship. Rule through fear and propaganda, and if the guy in charge gets offed or dies on his own, it turns to hell. More resistance will pop up, as well.
Lordganon 10:26, January 20, 2012 (UTC)
... Isolated fighting between scouts... in an area between two nations, one industrial and the other militant?
Seems a bit to optimistic. A likelier scenario would be to have a minor flareup of tensions, with many causalties on both sides, and then a ceasefire. Like a very, very mild Chola incident.
As for the DPI... my article states there are isolated sleeper cells, which are actively being flushed out, and Mbia died almost three weeks ago, and though BEFORE his death there was some contention as to whether or not Isiro would attempt the take-over of Zaire (not who would get what, all positions were either obvious, unchanged, or previously decided), and it was decided no, as Isiro wouldn't have the power to do so.
The DPI was FLUSHED OUT. They exist via a few fanatics with rifles, not any real threat to stability. In their heyday, they had 21 full members and a few dozen sleeper cells.That's not a threat to stability, that's the lunatic fringe trying to make themselves heard. GunsnadGlory 19:51, January 20, 2012 (UTC)
You exaggerate both nations. Isolated fighting between scouts, if anything at all.
Fanatics are a threat to stability. And, you ignored the rest of why it's not stable.
Lordganon 03:04, January 21, 2012 (UTC)
Ok, LG, Britain is one of the most stable countries on Earth, and yet I am SURE there are a few anarchist terrorist crazies running around somewhere. Isiro is a BENEVOLENT dictatorship, essentially. Egotistical... but it acts in the interests of its people so that a popular rebellion won't emerge. Just because it isn't a democracy doesn't mean it's people are unhappy. I'm not against democracy, as you stated on the Zambia talk page, I merely think there are alternatives AND that sometimes said alternatives are better for the problem. Governing a tiny country with industrial problems? Not the easiest thing to do with a democracy that requires you to ask every bloody person in the country what they think.
Isiro has minor stabilty problems, but so does the US. It doesn't mean that it's unsafe. In fact, if the govt was restrictive enough, it might be illegal to have a gun unless you are an active member of the army/police. China is a perfectly stable dictatorship, and the people there aren't even happy. GunsnadGlory 00:45, January 22, 2012 (UTC)
There is no such thing as a "benevolent dictatorship."
There is one hell of a big difference between a few crazy people, and actual rebels like you have.
I suggest that you have a look into what democracy is, Guns. There are only a few small towns where what you just said holds any truth whatsoever.
Dictatorships are not stable. They always have rebels, those in opposition, people after their jobs, and the people wanting them gone. And, if they cannot keep enough people on their side, or distracted, they fall. They may get replaced by another dictator, but make no mistake, they do fall. Extremely rare is the case where they get to either die in power, or pass power to their designated successor.
Isiro does not have minor problems. When a single death will collapse everything - as is the case in Isiro - it is not a minor problem. You cannot even begin to compare that to the USA.
The PRC is a democratic dictatorship. A dictatorship is where one man rules - China does not have that. One party state, with almost no democratic powers for the people, true, but it is not a dictatorship.
Lordganon 11:19, January 22, 2012 (UTC)
And LG, if you read the government section, you'll find that Isiro is a 'Democratic Dictatorship' - It allows people to vote for the council under the Premier. The Premier, of course, is appointed by the Emperor, BUT THE COUNCIL IS ELECTED... though it often is just the rich who can buy their seats.
Ok, LG, Isiro has the Rich, the Army, and the Priesthood on their side. I don't think that they can't keep evryone on the right side.
I NEVER said dictatorships don't fall, I said that Isiro is stable enough NOT to. England survived for centuries, under GOD- AWFUL kings, because they had a good, working system. Isiro has that.
'Actual rebels'? THESE JOKERS DON'T EVEN NUMBER 20! They are FANATICS! They were ignored until they actually attacked one of the Mbia's, at whic point they were flushed out like so many rats.
Ok, point about benevolent dictatorships understood. The Emperor, however, is happy when his people are happy, or else he isn't Emperor, so he acts as a 'benevolent dictator' would.
GunsnadGlory 01:14, January 23, 2012 (UTC)
What you describe is not democratic in any form, especially since in both your own words, and the article, the ruler holds all the power. Such a Council is a complete farce.
The Rich - not that there would be any, but I digress - the Army, and the Priesthood? Notice that you include a tiny portion of the population? Do the math.
No, they do not have stability. For the umpteenth time. They will fall.
And having to be flushed out means that they are rebels. And now, they are loose in the countryside, and hunted by the regime. Rebels, pure and simple. And they'll increase in number before you an get rid of them, no doubt.
Again, there is no such thing as a benevolent dictator. They can claim it all they want, but it is not true. By virtue of their position they are acting in their own interest.
Lordganon 10:43, January 23, 2012 (UTC)
To repeat myself. THEY ARE NOT REBELS. THEY ARE FANATICS. Just because I said they were flushed out, doesn't mean that they are rebels. Their cause may be noble, but they are STILL FANATICS! One can flush out a Satanist cult. A few sleeper cells existing means nothing.
Apart from the destroyed DPI, Isiro has NO OTHER STABILITY ISSUES! Maybe they will fall, but not within the lifetime of Serge Mbia, who is an experienced ruler, as he had over 15 years training. Eventually, I agree, they will fall, but so will everything.
There is no such thing as magic, but magicians can fool you into thinking there was. There is no such thing as a benevolent dictator, but a dictator who wants to stay in power will realize (especially since as you said, only a minority is fully behind this autocrat) that making sure his people's interests are served also makes sure their interests are served, as they aren't being served (hahah) a popular rebellion.
It is a farce. But hey, so is a 'democracy' where you can only vote for one party.
GunsnadGlory 20:12, January 23, 2012 (UTC)
No. They are rebels. Of that, there is no question.
I have stated to you several times now why they have a stability issue.
Democracy is not a farce, but I suppose such a statement is par for the course, from you.
You are failing entirely to get what I am saying. And, it all has nothing to do with the topic at hand, to boot.
Lordganon 06:48, January 24, 2012 (UTC)
EXCUSE ME? I DID NOT STATE THAT DEMOCRACY WAS A FARCE! I STATED THAT IN COUNTRIES WHERE YOU COULD ONLY VOTE FOR ONE PERSON, ONE PARTY (IE, CHINA), 'DEMOCRACY' WAS A FARCE! YOU HAVE NO RIGHT TO MAKE FALSE COMMENTS WITHOUT ACTUALLY READING WHAT I HAVE WRITTEN! PLEASE stop making incorrect and INSULTING comments about things I did NOT say!
I know why you have issues with its stability, I just disagree that they will occur within the next few years.
Ok, fine. Rebels. They still numbered only 20 in their HEYDAY. I fail to see any REAL threat in the short term here.
It is off topic.
GunsnadGlory 19:53, January 24, 2012 (UTC)
I do agree with you in the DPI part; they're not an actual menace for the Isiran government.
About the "democracy is a farce" thing, you did write 'democracy in a single country' which could be interpreted as local democracy being a farce. It was just a misunderstanding. And LG is right; something as a 'benevolent dictatorship' is impossible. But both of you, especially you, Guns, calm down before this gets out of hand. Fed (talk) 03:26, January 25, 2012 (UTC)
I did write that 'democracy in a single country' was a farce- I meant party more than country, and it was very badly phrased. I corrected this.
When I said that Isiro was a 'benevolent' despotism, I meant that the Emperor of Isiro must act in the interests of his people, or his power will be cut- he may still remain in power, like King John... or he may not.
GunsnadGlory 19:38, January 25, 2012 (UTC)
Even one party democracies are still democracies. You called them a farce, and that, given the extent of your arguments, also means that you are calling all democracies a farce.
China has no votes.
You are continually saying that they have no stability issues. Yet, now you say that they do? Make up your mind. And, they do have them, big-time.
If you see no threat, then you need to read something on how such things happen. They are getting stronger, without question. Nor could 20 people manage anything like you say - more like 2000.
As for the part about him acting in the interests of the people, you've even stated yourself that that is not really the case.
Lordganon 08:38, January 29, 2012 (UTC)
And if you'd READ my points, most of your concens go away.
I'm calling a 'democracy' where the people have no choice as to anyone in government, or how they act, not really a bloody democracy. It may be technically a democracy. That doesn't meant that me calling it a farce of a democracy calls all democracies farces. That argument make zero sense.
The China point is you being a pedant. That has nothing on my points.
I'm not saying that they have major stability problems. I'm saying that if the Empreror doesn't act in his people's interests, THEN he gets stability problems. He's not acting in their interests for Their benefits, he's doing it for HIS benefit.
If you read the Isiro page, you would see that it states only 20 people did this. Maybe people want a democracy, but that is a general rumbling- few want to act on it, because they are reasonably happy. 20 people could do EVERYTHING that is stated in the article. If you'll notice, most of their attacks were early on. Later, few attacks took place.
Finally, LG, flushed out doesn't mean that they were driven into the woods, flushed out means they were bloody wiped out. Maybe one or two sleepers are left alive. That means bloody nothing. They are in no shape or inclination to start up something like this again for at least 10 years, not after something like the bloody Red Army purges Pre-WWII. GunsnadGlory 00:52, January 30, 2012 (UTC)
Oh, I'm reading your posts. But you are failing to comprehend any of what I'm telling you about them, so I suppose that accusation is par for the course.
You are calling democracy a farce.
A Pedant, huh? Now that's not even remotely true. And you know it. Watch it.
You admitted that they have major problems. Far, far, too late to take it back.
I am well aware of the number you state on that blasted page. And you are entirely failing to get my point.
You need to learn what the term "flushed out" means. What you are claiming is not even remotely close to its meaning. Flushed out in the context does mean exactly what you are claiming that it does not.
And, lastly, that is not even close to what rebels are like. People do not stop. They are recruiting and rearming, like every other rebel group. Nor is it remotely close, whatsoever, to Stalin's purges.
Lordganon 07:10, January 30, 2012 (UTC)
How the Hell am I calling democracy a farce? You are using a non-valid argument here.
I didn't admit that they had major problems now. I said that such stability problems may rise, but not in the near future. This applies for the DPI too, right now, they aren't really going to afect Isiro for at least 10 years. In fact, I actually said this. Par for the course? I think not.
Ok, last 3 points acknowledged. Please explain to me what you ARE trying to say.
I apoligize for the insult. That is one thing you cannot be accused of.
GunsnadGlory 19:34, January 30, 2012 (UTC)
You admitted that it was a farce.
I suggest that you read more than your last post. And 10 years? Not a chance. Try, at most, 10 months. Bet on only a few.
Rebels do not stop because they suffered a setback. They will melt away, recruit, rebuild, and begin again. As for the numbers... 20 active members, okay. Think about this, however: they have to get their equipment, etc. somewhere. As with all rebel groups, that means they need some sort of support base. No matter how high up they may be, they still need it.
Lordganon 09:35, January 31, 2012 (UTC)
Ok, LG. First off, here is what I said:
It is a farce. But hey, so is a 'democracy' where you can only vote for one party.
Where are you getting this argument of yours?
10 MONTHS? LG, without some major scandal in government happening, something like this isn't happening for at least 5 years.
Consider: Despite having a large support system, and a few sleeper cells, they aren't rebuilding from that. If you'll notice, a lot of their attacks were against civillians. They're no better than common terrorists. In addition, a lot of their support system will have been washed away with their demise. Until the DPI show that they can do more than kill a few soldiers and a bunch of civillians, only fanatics will actively support these maniacs. The public might support them (which will have ended after that spree of bombings), but after those attacks, they're currently throwing their support behind a (so far) stable autocratic government, or behind a bunch of worthless fanatics who can do nada, and affect the people more than the govt. 10 months? Hardly.
GunsnadGlory 00:32, February 2, 2012 (UTC)
I suggest that you actually read the posts on this page. You did say it was a farce.
You'll note that I said probably less than 10 months. Myself, I'd say 5 or 6 before they start up again, on an active level.
Have a look into how fast such groups rebuild, even after doing such things to the locals - and, fyi, such things would have the opposite effect than what you mistakingly believe. You vastly overestimate their support falling - it'd increase.
Guns, you're not demonstrating any real knowledge of how organizations like that work. Or how the public actually reacts. Do your homework.
Lordganon 10:27, February 2, 2012 (UTC)
- Bangs head* could you explain where I siad that?
5 OR 6 MONTHS? LG, towards their end, they were already declining because of this. Muslims didn't support the lunatic jihadis because they weren't helping their cause, they were making it worse, hurting their own. The same happens here, the public wants democracy (but won't act on this desire till a 'spark' enters the equation) but also wants to distance itself from such crazy maniacs.
This group may have a large support system, but they were exactly that: a support system. They didn't want to get involved. Some might, or maybe even most (unlikely), but they're generally not trained.
But really, this disagreement is opinion. GunsnadGlory 19:56, February 2, 2012 (UTC)
As I said, you said it was a farce. You cannot take it back, no matter how much you may wish to do so.
You really do need to learn about rebels, Guns.
"Crazy" is your opinion, and quite frankly, is a very biased one.
Yyou may want to actually look at the numbers that support those "lunatic jihadis." In most Muslim nations, it is a majority.
Again, you don't know anything about how a rebel organization is structured or operates. Support systems are composed of those who only support, and those who are supporting the guys are the forefront. Those ones, without question, move to that role when the front guys "go."
I will say this again: when rebels do what these have done, their support rises.
It's not a question of opinion: you just really don't know much about such movements, truth be told.
Lordganon 08:57, February 3, 2012 (UTC)\
Are you for real? My point there was not that democracies are farces, that CHINA WAS! I have said that democracy can be weaker in certain scenarios (which I HAVE acknowledged is untrue). I have no clue where you are getting this.
No, they are not a 'majority'. Parties like, say, the Muslim Brotherhood, which are showing the best results in the polls, especially in Eygpt, aren't jihadis. They aren't secular, for sure. That doesn't mean that they're extremists.
Fine, about the rebel orgs I'll admit, I know very little. I'm not really as experienced in many of these, I'll admit. I just find it hard to believe that the public is going to support an organization which hurts the people, and only lightly damages the govt. Also, when I said they were flushed out, that includes many elements in their support system: not even close to disabling it, but certainly limiting their impact for the next 2-5 years. They won't have a serious stance for ten.
LG, this is a dictatorship with around 50,000 soldiers, and it can draft as many as it likes in a war. Even if 100 people replace them, it won't be enough. Look at their attacks. They hit their peak 2004-2006. Then there was a huge decline in the number of attacks. They wern't helping democracy, just making it easier for the govt to make them out as dangerous and violent maniacs. That's hardly opinion. They have a noble cause: how exactly does killing hundereds of blameless civillians help this?
188.8.131.52 19:35, February 3, 2012 (UTC)
Again, actually have a look at the numbers supporting extremism in those countries. And, btw, "Jihadists" and "Extremists" are not the same thing, though that is a common perception. Noting, too, that it is "terror" attacks that are condemned by the locals, not usually the ones doing the attacks. And if you look at the groups like the Brotherhood, a large portion of its members are actually quite extreme.
As I said, 5-6 months before they start up again. Won't be all that much, but that will be roughly when they start again. And your line about "elements of their support structure" counters what you've stated several times, and what your own article says.
No, they cannot draft "as many as they would like" in war. No one can do that - to even consider it would mean the entire country collapses - even 50,000 is likely to have similar effects. And you'd be shocked at what a "few" can actually do.
You called them "crazy." Thus, your opinion.
Most of the people will support them on some level. And, they are making strikes against military targets. Only a single one of those caused any real number of civilian casualties, and given this state, most would likely have been military there too. It's not going to make the people hate them - rather, they are going to support them more.
Lordganon 08:37, February 4, 2012 (UTC)
Maybe last point, fine.
5-6 months as a restart date? Maybe. They won't have any real power for at least as long as I said.
The Brotherhood has more extreme elements, like the Shabab - I'm not denying this. But the Shabab is to the Brotherhood like the DPI is to the common people- extreme, violent, and not really helpful.
Draft... Maybe. 50,000 is reasonable, I think, but whatever. Still, that makes no difference. They won't have an effect. GunsnadGlory 01:53, February 5, 2012 (UTC)
You're vastly understating just how fast these things can recover, Guns. It's actually disturbing how fast it can be that these groups recover, imo.
Ahhhh, but there's also the outright radical parties. Something like 40% of the overall votes, given the suspected percentages of the Brotherhood's political arm that are.... more extreme, and the outright ones in other parties.
My point with the military size was more so that to take that many people out of the production of food, clothes, etc. is going to hurt, a lot. Yes, women can be used to fix the matter, but.... only to a point. Have a look on the impact of calls to arms during the feudal period on the economy, the harvest, etc. for a similar idea. Wouldn't be quite so bad here, but..... it would still hurt.
Lordganon 09:27, February 6, 2012 (UTC)
It may hurt, not enough to finish off the govt.
recovery, maybe. But they didn't hurt till the very end, and those were death throes.
No Stability problems for at least 5-10 years. GunsnadGlory 01:51, February 10, 2012 (UTC)
It would likely nearly collapse, if not collapse, the government if they tried.
That was no death throes, lol. More like their power built enough so they could do such things.
Within a year, the problems will be back, worse. Year and half, at most, for stability to crash.
Lordganon 02:15, February 10, 2012 (UTC)
Alright, fine. The first point really has nothing to do with my argument anyway. Still, the army WILL be in the thousands, and will heavily outnumber all the DPI, sleeper cells and support system accounted for.
? LG, I meant the killing of Mbia, which was done by a desperate sleeper who had just been exposed, shortly after their downfall.
Well, they survived for ~25 years without a rebelllion.
Though a democratic Isiro would be interesting. GunsnadGlory 19:32, February 10, 2012 (UTC)
Sure as heck wasn't a downfall or a "desperate" move, lol.
Yeah, 25 years of emergency. Good luck pushing that one now.
Lordganon 00:21, February 11, 2012 (UTC)
LG. This dude panicked because he was about to be found out. He attempted to kill Mbia and suceeded. This was right after they were flushed out.
25 years of emergency? They were founded in 2001 (the DPI). Make that 12. And most of the time they wouldn't be on 'emergency'; maybe after the bmbings, or Mbia's killing, for a month or two. ?
GunsnadGlory 18:53, February 12, 2012 (UTC)
And, it ain't desperate or a downfall.
Little thing called "Doomsday" combined with the nature of the state, means 25 years of emergency. And now that contact with outside would finally be starting to be restored? Good luck with that one much longer.
Lordganon 00:46, February 13, 2012 (UTC)
The DPI are still maniacs. The International public will support the cause, not the actions.
I was talking about the actions of the general.
Ok, fair point, though. Eventually - within a few years - Isiro is going through reforms.
GunsnadGlory 19:30, February 14, 2012 (UTC)
You'd be surprised what international opinion will support if the cause is just.
It's a very reasonable reaction to have when you know you're caught, and going to die. Take as many of them, as possible, with you.
Lordganon 04:41, February 15, 2012 (UTC)
Haha, guess I can't argue with the first one. Sometimes it doesn't even have to be a just cause; take the Taliban- heroes until the Cold War ended, evil bastards after 9/11.
Reasonable does not mean that it cannot be desperate. If it is the best chance left, it may still be desperate. GunsnadGlory 22:17, February 15, 2012 (UTC)