There are a lot of questions that I still don't know how to deal with.
Guerrillas in Colombia
In Colombia, there are two important facts that would take place in 1950, if Gaitan survives:
- Gaitan would surely be elected president.
- Gómez would not be elected presidetn.
This would map diferently the political violence in Colombia and the conformation of the Liberal Guerillas, some of which would later become Communist Guerrillas.
I cannot see conservative guerrillas evolving in communist ones. So this might prevent current guerilla situation in Colombia.
However, Colombia was not the only Latin America country in which the communist guerrillas were formed in the 1960's. So communist guerrillas could happen anyhow.
But: most of those guerrillas movements were inspired or directly supported by the revolution in Cuba.
If the revolution in Cuba fails (a proposed consequence of this POD), then this support and inspiration would not be there.
--Chlewey 14:25, 7 Feb 2005 (PST)
Revolution in Cuba.
How important was Fidel Castro for the guerrillas in Cuba that took power in 1959?
Of course, Fidel Castro was not the only opposition to Batista regime... so how important did he became in shaping the Sierra Maestra rebels into a guerrilla who was able to overturn the power in Cuba...
... and mainly, how important was Fidel Castro to shape the Cuban Revolution into a communist country allied with the USSR?
I am assuming that, without the direct participation of Castro, then either
- The Sierra Maestra rebels would have less chances to overturn Batista regime
- If they do overturn, they might not turn communist and ally to the USSR.
This, of course, whould shape different the subsequent guerrilla movements in Latin America.
Of course, these are the direct consequence of Castro not being inspired by the Bogotazo.
Now: how would be shaped the ideology of people like Ernesto "Che" Guevara if a leftist government has been democratically ellected in Latin America (i.e. Gaitán in 1950).
--Chlewey 14:31, 7 Feb 2005 (PST)
Nixon - Kennedy
After 12 years of the POD, we could imagine a diferent presidential campaign in the USA in 1960, however I think it is rasonable to think that, there would not be any big butterflies in the US politics before 1960, and that both vicepresident Richard Nixon and Senator (D) from Massachussetts John F. Kennedy would face eachother in the presidential campaign of 1960.
Such a close result in november 1960, could well be turned. Some 30 people in the right county changing their vote could well mean Nixon would win.
So. No revolution in Cuba in 1959 and some leftist regimes in South America in the 1950... who are more probable to favor: Nixon or Kennedy?
Anyhow, neither Nixon nor Kennedy will have to deal with the missil crisis with Cuba, nor with Bay of Pigs...
Interesting butterflies in Viet Nam, also.
--Chlewey 14:41, 7 Feb 2005 (PST)
Some people have proposed that Gaitán was a little more fascist than actuallyu socialist. Anyhow a presidency of Gaitán would surely be a popolist one.
I am not sure what policies he would implement, and how they would affect the oligarchy in Colombia.
We should remember that it was the oligarchy who brought down Rojas Pinilla regime in 1957; and Rojas was not a populist.
So, for this moment, a presidency of Gaitán is obscure to me.
Now, who would succeed Gaitan in 1854?
For the liberal party, either Echandía or Lleras Camargo might want to run. For the conservatives, probably Laureano Gómez. There might also be a Gaitanist, either for the Liberal Party or trying by his own movement.
The chances of a Liberal, or an independent Gaitanist, would depend on how good is the perception of Gaitán in 1954.
While I don't think Gaitán would have stopped the political violence, I would expect a better situation in 1954 in the ATL, than in 1950 in OTL. Mainly because there would not be that violence prompted by the assassination of Gaitan. So even if Gómez wins the presidential race, he would not ignitiate the Violencia as he did OTL in 1950.
Dictatorship in Colombia?
In the late 1970 OTL, most Latin American countries had dictators. Most of them as a reaction of a possible communist takeover.
In Colombia a democracy kept runing with a new president each four years. Of course, many would claim that the National Front (1958-1974), was some kind of a dictatorship, and the National Security doctrine of Turbay (1978-1982), where not far away from the National Security doctrine of the dictators in southern South America.
But the dictatorship of General Rojas Pinilla (1953-1957), somehow prevented that there would be another dictatorship in Colombia.
A presidency of Gaitán in 1950, would surely butterfly away the presidency of Rojas Pinilla.
Would this mean that Colombia, in the 1960's or 1970's would fall under a military regime?