Alternative History

The United States presidential election of 2012 is the next presidential election to be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012 and will be the 57th quadrennial United States presidential election to select the President and the Vice President of the United States. Republican President Tom Delay and Republican Vice President Mike Pence are presumed to be running in 2012 if impeachment, assassination or choices against this prompt otherwise.

The 2012 Presidential election will coincide with the United States Senate elections where 33 races will be occurring as well as the United States House of Representatives elections to elect the members for the 113th Congress. The election will also encompass eleven gubernatorial races as well as many state legislature races.

Electoral college changes[]

The 2010 Census will ultimately decide how the electoral map will be laid out for the 2012 election, but population projections based upon Census updates give a good idea of how the Electoral College will change. The Census occurs every ten years and is the basis for Electoral College reapportionment based on state population changes. According to a study based on the 2007 population estimates the likely changes are as follows.[

Likely gainers[]

  • Texas - 4 more votes
  • Arizona - 2 more votes
  • Florida - 1 more vote
  • Georgia - 1 more vote
  • Nevada - 1 more vote
  • North Carolina - 1 more vote
  • Oregon - 1 more vote
  • South Carolina - 1 more vote
  • Utah - 1 more vote

Likely losers[]

  • Ohio - 2 fewer votes
  • California - 1 fewer vote
  • Illinois - 1 fewer vote
  • Iowa - 1 fewer vote
  • Louisiana - 1 fewer vote
  • Massachusetts - 1 fewer vote
  • Michigan - 1 fewer vote
  • Minnesota - 1 fewer vote
  • Missouri - 1 fewer vote
  • New Jersey - 1 fewer vote
  • New York - 1 fewer vote
  • Pennsylvania - 1 fewer vote

States in blue represent states won by the Democratic party in 2008, while names in red represent states won by the Republican party. Based on the 2008 results, this would give the Republicans a net gain of six electoral votes (for a national total of 287), and the Democratic Party would break even.

Possible effects of potential House of Representatives enlargement[]

If the District of Columbia House Voting Rights Act of 2009 is passed by the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives and signed into law by President Tom Delay, the Electoral College may be expanded by the addition of a new elector. The act, which passed barely in the Senate on February 26, 2009, and awaits consideration in the House, would replace the congressional delegate from the District of Columbia (at present Eleanor Holmes Norton, a Democrat) with a voting representative in the House for the 112th Congress. Republicans and President Delay has stressed they were unsure about the Act as some Republicans saw this as an way to "cram in more Democrats" as Senator Chuck Grassley said. However if passed and signed into law by the President, the effect it would have to cause the Electoral College to add a new member would be its proposed creation of a new congressional district in the state of Utah, for which a representative would be elected in 2010 to serve in the 112th Congress starting in 2011.

As the number of electors in the Electoral College is the number of United States senators (124) plus the number of voting members of the United States House of Representatives (600) plus a provision of a minimum number of electors for the District of Columbia pursuant to the Twenty-third Amendment to the United States Constitution (3), the addition of two voting House members, one of whom would already be represented in the Electoral College by provision of the Twenty-third Amendment, would likely increase the number of electors to 539, according to political analyst and statistician Nate Silver.

Election changes[]

Republican Party Ohio Plan[]

The Republican Party decided in 2008 that they would implement an Ohio plan that would divide the primary states in their nominating process into three tiers: early states, small states, and large states. It would allow the early states to retain their status and tradition of being states that vote first. By the end of February 2012, nineteen small states (in terms of the Electoral College) would be allowed to vote. In March, the last states, the largest ones, would then have their primaries.

Democrat Party NASS Plan[]

After the success of Tom Delay's "small state" campaign, the National Association of Secretaries of State(NASS) would put forth an regional primary plan for the Democratic Primaries in 2012. This is still debated if it is to be accepted but the NASS Plan is gaining support. If accepted, primaries would be split into the traditional first primaries Iowa and New Hampshire and four major districted groups of primaries (West, East, South, Midwest, although a Pacific region is trying to be created).

Presidential Conventions[]

Several cities have expressed interest or intent to bid for the 2012 conventions. Indianapolis, Atlanta, and San Antonio have considered bidding for the 2012 Republicans National Convention while Columbus and Dallas have shown interest in bidding for the 2012 Democratic National Convention.

Considering previous national conventions, it is likely that parties will avoid their conventions coinciding with the 2012 Summer Olympics in London, which will run from July 27 to August 12. There has been a trend in recent cycles toward holding the conventions later in the summer.

Potential Candidates[]

Potential Democratic Candidates[]

Nationwide opinion polling for the US presidential election 2012-Democrats

  • Senator Barack Obama of Illinois
  • Senator Joe Biden of Delaware
  • Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington
  • Former Governor Mark Warner of Virginia
  • Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts
  • Governor Martin O'Malley of Maryland
  • Former Chairmen of the Democratic Party Howard Dean of Vermont
  • Former Representative Harold Ford of Tennessee
  • Former Governor and Chairmen of the Democratic Party Tim Kaine of Virginia
  • Former Governor Janet Napolitano of Arizona
  • Former Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas
  • Former Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio and 2008 Nominee

Potential Republican Candidates[]

  • President Tom Delay of Texas
  • Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana

Potential Independent Candidates[]

  • Mayor of NYC Michael Bloomberg of New York
  • Former Governor Jesse Ventura of Minnesota
  • Attorney and Political Activist Ralph Nader of Connecticut
  • Richard H. Clark of Maryland
  • Michael D. Elder of Texas
  • Thaddaus Hill of Texas
  • Robert Milnes of New Jersey
  • Former journalist Joe Schriner of Ohio
  • Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana

Potential Libertarian Party Candidates[]

  • Libertarian 2008 VP nominee and Entrepreneur Wayne Root of Nevada
  • Boston Tea Party founder Thomas Knapp of Missouri
  • Libertarian Vice Chairmen and 2008 Presidential candidate Michael Jingozian of Oregon

Potential Green Party Candidates[]

  • Punk Rock Musician and Activist Jello Biafra of California

Potential Constitution Party Candidates[]

  • Activist and former Diplomat Alan Keyes of Maryland
  • Diane Beall Templin of California

Potential Party for Socialism and Liberation Candidates[]

  • Political organizer and 2008 PSL President nominee Gloria La Riva of California

Potential Prohibition Party Candidates[]

  • Artist and Activist Gene Amondson of Washington