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POD

August 30, 1918. Fanya Kaplan, a radical of the left Socialist-Revolutionaries, is near Lenin's automobile after a speech. While he is talking to a woman, Fanya calls out to him, pulls out his revolver, and shoots him three times.

In OTL, two of the three shots turned out to wound him heavily, but were not fatal. One struck his jaw, the other his shoulder and a third missed him, hitting the woman Lenin was talking to instead.

But what if Fanya had had a better aim? What if she had shot Lenin through the brain rather than in the jaw, and Lenin fell dead immediatly after the attempt?

Russia in 1918

Monarchism in August, 1918

The Russian monarchy is doing pretty badly as of the moment of the POD. Nikolai II has been killed by this point, as has his whole family. So is Grand Duke Michael Alexandrovich, his brother and the one-day long Tsar of all Russias. However, his only son, Giorgy Brasov, is alive and aged 8; maybe I can have him crowned Emperor of Russia? His lineage, though, is morganatic, so he isn't in the line of succession.

List of Succession to the Russian Throne in 1918

Note: people that are listed in itallics in this throne are dead as of August 30

Important White generals, location, and political positions:

  • Alexander Kolchak - Far-right, seen as autocratic and borderly monarchistic by Woodrow Wilson. He established himself as a dictator IOTL and might have tried to restore the monarchy, so I do not doubt those opinions for a single second. Currently in Omsk, as part of the Provisional Government of Autonomous Siberia.
  • Nikolai Yudenich - Nothing in Wikipedia says anything about his inclination towards monarchy, and his army had, like many others, SR and Kadet members, which means that it can actually be anything. However, his army was definitely Russian-nationalistic, which might fare better with the monarchists than with the Komuch and its fellow SRs in Idel-Ural, Yakutia, the Ukrainian National Republic, ets... Currently in Lithuania, soon to flee to Finland.
  • Anton Denikin - Seems to be proto-Fascist, with his extreme anti-Communist tendencies and the rampant anti-Semitism. He enforced various progroms against Jewish peoples in the Don and Kuban regions while fighting against the Red and Black armies. However, it seems Denikin also had a few democratic ideas, stating that the military could not decide on Russia's governments on Russians' steads. Currently located leading the Volunteer Army in Kuban, fighting against the Black Army, the Cossacks, the Adyghe and the Ukrainians.
  • Pyotr Wrangel, the Black Baron - Monarchist, highborn, son of a large Prussian dynasty. Far-right and anti-communist, and probably somewhat anti-Semitic being his high-class background and his second-in-command status in the Volunteer Army. Willing to fight for nearly anything except a Communist Russia, so might work as a negotiator if he leads to be Ruler. Loathed by Bolsheviks. Currently located in the Volunteer Army in Kuban, fighting against the Black, Cossack, Adyghe and Ukrainian armies.
  • Grigori Semyonov - Also anti-Communist, and gave the "Protocol of the Elders of Zion" to the Japanese troops he found. (Also supported by Japan, so likely far-right). However, maybe not as anti-Semitic as Kolchak and Denikin, given that he allowed a Jewish subunit to form in his unit and he had a Jewish mistress. Currently located in Chita.


Balkanisation of Russia

Russia was very divided at this point, which might make it weak enough to be divided into several nation-states if they acquire the help of foreign intervention and recognition. Some of the independent nations currently existing in Russia, as of Lenin's death:

    • the Ukraine: a lot. Many states exist in the Ukraine, including:
      • Flag of Ukraine the Ukrainian State, or the Hetmanate, far-right and German-sympathetic, likely to collapse if the Germans do and restore the Flag of Ukrainian People's Republic 1917 Ukrainian National Republic, which was centre-left
      • Flag of Austria-Hungary (1869-1918) the Kingdom of Galicia and Lodemira in the Austro-Hungarian Empire, likely to break off as in OTL and form the West Ukrainian People's Republic.
      • RPAU flag the Free Territory - Anarchist experiment by Nestor Makhno (!!!), allied with the Bolsheviks as of 1918
      • Flag of Crimea the Crimean Regional Government- German-established, seems to be rather unpopular with everyone but Crimean Tatars
    • Belarus -the 30px Belarusian National Republic, also German-supported.
    • Baltic states:
      • Flag of Estonia Estonian Provisional Government - underground, oppressed by the Germans
      • Flag of Lithuania Lithuanian State - underground, oppressed by the Germans
      • Latvia apparently didn't declare independence until December of 1918. They must be suffering from malnourish too badly to worry about politics.
      • Flag of Lithuania Kingdom of Lithuania - official, governed by Germany
      • United Baltic Duchy flag United Baltic Duchy - under work, plan by the German nobility:
        • Flag of Courland (state) Duchy of Courland and Semigallia, in today's Latvia
        • Flag of Estonia Duchy of Estonia and Livonia, under work, plan by German nobility
    • Finland: Flag of Finland Kingdom of Finland, has not yet elected a king (maybe let's choose a Wettin?! OR A BERNADOTTE)
    • Russia - oh boy.
      • Flag of Russian SFSR (1918-1937) Russian Socialist Federal Soviet Republic - Will fall apart soon, without Lenin's union bickering between the various second-tier members of the Bolsheviks will begin, as will higher amounts of revolution by the Socialist-Revolutionaries, Mensheviks and other such leftist members of the soviets like the Kronstadt marines. Factions:
        • Flag of the Soviet Union Bolsheviks - currently on top of the government and on control of everything. Further divided:
          • Flag of the Soviet Union Left Communists led by Bukharin, who refuse a treaty with Germany, opposed self-determination
          • Flag of the Soviet UnionTrotskyist Defenders - part of the Politburo in 1917, Trotskyists support permanent revolution, a clear Menshevik influence, but are opposed to anything but pure communism in economic policies, so are far-left. Support the upholding of the Treaty of Brest-Litvosk. Predominant in the Central Committee of Petrograd.
          • Flag of the Soviet UnionStalinist Defenders - part of the Politburo in 1917, Stalinists often challenge Trotsky's decision, and it's quite likely open war will break between the two after Lenin's death. Prominent in the lower Volga and in the armies closest to Anton Denikin's Volunteer Army.
        • 30px Mensheviks - prominent in Georgia, support a revolution of the bourgeoisie before the revolution of the proletariat is possible, thus, might cooperate with the right. Led by Julius Martov.
        • Darker green and Black flag Socialist-Revolutionaries - Most are not even Marxists, but share Communist and Socialist ideas. Many are more to the left of centre, rather than hard-left. However, the organised part in the RSFSR government is hard-left, given that the centrist SR government exists in Idel-Ural, Vladivostok and the Komuch. Divided between the Left SRs, which oppose ending war with Germany, and the Right SRs, which support it. Heavily agrarianist.
          • Darker green and Black flag Green Armies - the armed wing of the peasantry, often affiliated with the SRs. Will probably rebel as they did IOTL, given that the SRs have recently been exiled from the Bolshevik government. 
        • Anarchist flag Kronstadt Sailors, wishful of their own autonomous Soviets and opposed to the anti-leftist actions the Bolsheviks have done against the Mensheviks and the SRs. Might easily rebel, and bring huge parts of the population with them. They're also crack troops.
      • Czech legion-alligned states:
        • Flag of the Ural government (1918) Komuch - my second-favourite Russian Civil War government, might survive for a while or even ride to victory with the rest of the White movement.
        • Idel-ural Idel-Ural State - apparently still alive, governs from Kazan, might also survive for a while since I like them too.
        • Flag of siberia (horizontal) Provisional Government of Siberia (Vladivostok) - SR-led, so might band up with the Komuch like OTL (only maybe without the white warlords?)
        • Flag of Bashkortostan Little Bashkortostan south-east of Ufa; allied with the RSFSR
      • White nations:
        • Flag of Buryatia Buryat People's Duma, under Grigori Semyonov. Maybe to be annexed by the Bogd Khaan?
        • Flag of Sakha Yakut Revolt, independentist, maybe successful in TTL? Siberian Federation?!?!
        • Siberian flag Provisional Government of Autonomous Siberia (Omsk) - Denikin-led, I believe.


Previous:

World War I

Concurrent:

Russian Civil War

Next:

WIP

Great Leftist Uprising
Beginning:

August 30, 1918

End:

1922

Place:

European Russia

Outcome:

Uprising victory; collapse of the USSR

Combatants

30px Left-Wing Uprisings
Darker green and Black flag Right Socialist-Revolucionaries
Darker green and Black flag Left Socialist-Revolutionaries
Darker green and Black flag Green armies
30px Mensheviks
30px Left Opposition to Bolshevism
Anarchist flag Kronstadt Sailors
Anarchist flag Anarchists
RPAU flag Free Territory

supported by:
Flag of the German Empire German Empire
Flag of the United Kingdom United Kingdom
Flag of France French Republic
Flag of the United States United States of America
Flag of Japan Empire of Japan

Flag of Russian SFSR (1918-1937) Russian Socialist Federal Soviet Republic
Flag of Russian SFSR (1918-1937) Right Opposition
Flag of Russian SFSR (1918-1937) Centre Bolsheviks
Flag of Russian SFSR (1918-1937) Red Army

Commanders

Julius Martov
Stepan Patrichenko
Nestor Makhno

Lev Trotsky
Iosif Stalin
Nikolai Bukharin

Strength

WIP

WIP

Casualties and Losses

WIP, most likely many

WIP, most likely many




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