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 Fall Grün 
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In OTL, Nazi Germany annexed Austria on March 12, 1938 with the Anschluss. It was widely expected that Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland, with its substantial German population led by the Nazi politician Konrad Henlein, would be Hitler's next demand. Indeed, as Hitler increasingly gave inflammatory speeches demanding for the German minority in Czechoslovakia to be reunited with their homeland, war seemed more and more likely. Many thought war was inevitable and that a peace agreement that would satisfy everyone would be impossible to attain.
The Czechoslovaks were counting on political and military assistance from the French government, as they had an alliance with France. France under the leadership of Édouard Daladier was, however, unprepared materially and politically for war, and French government was dedicated to solving the crisis without entering a state of war. Czechoslovakia also had a treaty with the Soviet Union, and Stalin indicated willingness to cooperate with France and Great Britain if they decided to come to Czechoslovakia's defence; Soviet proposals were however ignored by the West during the ongoing negotiations. Indeed, Soviet dictator Josef Stalin and Soviet Russia were very wary of any capitalist alliances.
During the summer of 1938, tensions between Germany and Czechoslovakia continued to rise, and both sides mobilised for war. In September, war seemed inevitable. But none of the powers in western Europe wanted war. They severely overestimated German dictator Adolf Hitler's military ability at the time, and while Britain and France had superior forces to the Germans they felt they had fallen behind, and were undergoing massive military rearmament to catch up. Hitler, on the other hand, was in just the opposite position. He far exaggerated German power at the time and was desperately hoping for a war with the west which he thought he could easily win. He was pushed into holding the conference, however, by Italian dictator Benito Mussolini who was unprepared for a Europe-wide conflict, and was also concerned about the growth of German power. The German military leadership also knew the state of their armed forces and did all they could to avoid war.
Neville Chamberlain, the British prime minister, met with Hitler in his retreat at Berchtesgaden on September 15-16; he reached a preliminary agreement with Hitler who agreed to take no military action without further discussion, while Chamberlain promised to persuade his Cabinet and the French to accept the results of a plebiscite to be held in the Sudetenland. The French premier, Édouard Daladier, and his foreign minister, Georges Bonnet, met with the British diplomats in London, and issued a joint statement that all areas with a population that was more than 50 percent Sudeten German were to be given to Germany. The Czechoslovak government which was not consulted initially rejected the proposal but was forced to accept it reluctantly on September 21. This however proved not enough for Hitler; when on September 22 Chamberlain met Hitler at Godesberg he was told that now wanted the Sudetenland occupied by the German army and the Czechoslovaks evacuated from the area by September 28. Chamberlain agreed to submit the new proposal to the Czechoslovaks, who rejected it, as did the British Cabinet and the French. On September 24 the French ordered a partial mobilization: the Czechoslovaks had ordered a general mobilization one day earlier. It was the first French mobilization since World War I. In a last attempt to avoid war, Chamberlain proposed that a four-power conference be convened immediately to settle the dispute. Hitler agreed and on September 29, Hitler, Chamberlain, Daladier, and Mussolini met in Munich.
A deal was reached on September 29, and at about 1:30am on September 30, Adolf Hitler, Neville Chamberlain, Benito Mussolini and Édouard Daladier signed the Munich Agreement. The agreement was officially introduced by Mussolini although in fact the so-called Italian plan had been prepared in the German Foreign Office. It was nearly identical to the Godesberg proposal: the German army was to complete the occupation of the Sudetenland by October 10, and an international commission would decide the future of other disputed areas.
Czechoslovakia was informed by Britain and France that it could either resist Germany alone or submit to the prescribed annexations. The Czechoslovak government, realizing the hopelessness of fighting Germany alone, reluctantly capitulated (September 30) and agreed to abide by the agreement. The settlement gave Germany the Sudetenland starting October 10, and de facto control over the rest of Czechoslovakia as long as Hitler promised to go no further.
However, on March 15, 1939, Hitler annexed Bohemia and Moravia under threats of aerial bombardment of Prague, violating the terms of the agreement. On March 23, he forced Lithuania to cede Memelland, and on September 1, Nazi Germany invaded Poland, triggering the Second World War.
The agreement is regarded by historians as exemplifying appeasement. As Hitler soon violated the terms of the agreement, it has often been cited in support of the principle that totalitarian states should never be appeased. Owing to the fact that the state of Czechoslovakia was not invited to the conference, the Munich Agreement is commonly called the Munich Dictate by Czechs and Slovaks, and the phrase Munich betrayal is also frequently used because military alliances between Czechoslovakia and France was not honoured.
But what if the Czech government had not caved in to the agreement made in Munich? What if the Czech government had refused to cede the industrially rich Sudetenland to Nazi Germany? What if, as a result of this, Adolf Hitler had implemented Operation Fall Grün, the plan for the invasion of Czechoslovakia?
Quick Overview
In this timeline, the events occurs as in OTL, and the deal was reached on September 29, and at about 1:30am on September 30, Adolf Hitler, Neville Chamberlain, Benito Mussolini and Édouard Daladier signed the Munich Agreement. The agreement was officially introduced by Mussolini although in fact the so-called Italian plan had been prepared in the German Foreign Office. It was nearly identical to the Godesberg proposal: the German army was to complete the occupation of the Sudetenland by October 10, and an international commission would decide the future of other disputed areas.
Czechoslovakia was informed by Britain and France that it could either resist Germany alone or submit to the prescribed annexations.
The news of the signing of the Munich Agreement between Hitler and the Western powers reached Czechoslovakia later that day, and in further demonstrations and rallies, Czechs and Slovaks called for president Beneš not to abide by the agreement. After further pressure from both the cabinet under General Syrový and the Czechoslovak population, Beneš declared that they would not abide by the agreement. As a result, the Soviet Foreign Minister, Maxim Litvinov, reassured the Czechoslovak government that the Soviet Union was willing to come to Czechoslovakia's assistance.
Adolf Hitler was furious by the Czech refusal. As the Czechoslovaks in his mind had disobeyed an agreement between Germany, France and the United Kingdom, he could now declare war on Czechoslovakia without risking an escalation of the conflict with the west. As a result, he ordered that the Fall Grün, the invasion of Czechoslovakia, should be initiated the following morning.
This alternate history will contain historical background stories, historical political, economical and military facts and historical OOBs (Order of Battle) for Czechoslovakia, Nazi Germany and Hungary. The events and battles of this scenario has been written as realistically as possible.
Good reading!
Sources
While working on this alternative history, I spent months researching for enough historical documentation (both Czech, German and English sources) regarding the political and military situation in Europe in 1938, along with a detailed Order of Battle for all nations, as well as using maps of invasion plans and comparing them to both modern and older civilian maps to find the places where the battles in this alternative history occurs.
Books
- Aron, Lubomír: "Československe opevněmí 1935-1938", Náchod 1990 MK CSR 59-220-89
- Axworthy, Mark W. A.: Axis Slovakia: Hitler's Slavic Wedge, 1938-1945", Axis Europa Books, New York 2002. ISBN 1-891227-41-6
- Ben-Arie, Katriel: "Czechoslovakia at the Time of Munich: The Military Situation", Journal of Contemporary History, Vol. 25, No. 4 (Oct. 1990)
- Kliment, Charles K., et al: "Germany's First Ally - Armed Forces of the Slovak State 1939-1945", Schiffer Publishing Ltd. 1997. ISBN 0-7643-0589-1
- Kursietis, Andris J.: "The Hungarian Army And Its Military Leadership in World War II", Axis Europa Books, New York 1999. ISBN 1-891227-28-9
- Michaelis, Klaus: "1938: Krieg gegen die Tschechoslowakei - Der Fall Grün", Michaelis-Verlag 2004. ISBN 3-930849-8
- Mujzer, Péter: "The Royal Hungarian Army 1920-1945 Volume II - Hungarian Mobile Forces", Axis Europa Books, New York 2000. ISBN 1-891227-35-1
- Niehorster, Leo W. G.: "The Royal Hungarian Army, 1920-1945", Axis Europa Books, New York 1998. ISBN 1-891227-19-X
- Nolč, Jiři: "Československá armáda za první rebuliky", Computer Press 2007. ISBN 978-80-251-1774-3
- Taylor, Telford: "Munich: The price of peace", First Vintage Books 1980. ISBN 0-394-77482-9
Web sites
- Various Wikipedia pages in various languages.